Not financial/legal advice. Not affiliated with @kalshi (or anyone). RTs are not endorsements. Opinions are my own. ✊🏻✊🏻🚪
Joined April 2026
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the ethical dishonesty about gambling companies will continue until the bag is secured i guess
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>VC: this is a generational company
>ask him if it’s generational company or gambling platform
>he doesn’t understand
>explain generational company builds product that helps people live better lives
>he laughs and says “it is good company, sir”
>look it up. it’s a gambling platform.
I'm so glad @Alfred_Lin and the @Kalshi team shared this
@mansourtarek_ and @luanalopeslara are generational talents
It's hard to explain how much pain they endured, for years, while waiting for regulatory approval
But their vision was always clear
Respect!
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Republicans keep insisting that Kakshi's markets are being manipulated by Democrats in order to inflate Dem odds. Setting aside that there's no evidence of this, their theory improbably requires Republicans to be sitting by quietly, rather than going into the market to scoop up the free money Dem traders are supposedly offering.
Kalshi currently prices James Talarico at roughly 70% to beat Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. That number doesn’t match what I’m hearing from friends across the state, so I dug into the market activity.
Most of the number of bets are actually on Paxton (around 73%). The money pushing Talarico’s odds higher appears concentrated in a smaller number of large positions, many of them placed late at night or in the early morning hours.
In a market of this size, a single six-figure bet can move the price significantly. That makes it relatively cheap for someone to inflate Talarico’s odds and create the impression that the race is already over. The practical effect is to discourage Paxton supporters from turning out.
I find that explanation more plausible than the current headline odds, and I’m comfortable betting accordingly. The only number that ultimately matters is the one on Election Day.
Go vote. Don’t let a prediction-market price decide whether you show up.
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It’s definitely 100% not gambling I don’t even know why you’re saying that it is it’s just for hedging there is no house 18-year olds should absolutely be allowed to participate and a $1B Series G funding round at a $40B valuation makes complete and total sense.
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Prediction markets could come under fire. Nearly 30 bills restricting the activity have been introduced since 2025, mostly by House Democrats, and none have passed.
Tighter limits on sports contracts after a Democratic win would weaken Kalshi.
@SeekingAlpha
2/3
What does the Nov. 3 election mean for the gaming industry?
Passage of a Nebraska ballot question allows the state's 6 licensed racetracks to offer online sports betting. Jefferies analyst David Katz says it will pass. @SeekingAlpha said it favors @DraftKings and @FanDuel
1/3
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What explains why there so much more trading volume on Kalshi for the LA mayor's race ($108M) than the big Senate and Governor races?
Paxton v Talarico has $64M
El-Sayed v Rogers $18M
Hinojosa v Abbott $13M
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Republican leaders in the Florida Senate just reported their general election donors. Below are all the $100K+ contributions.
Some notables:
- Kalshi ($750K)
- Duke Energy ($500K)
- Florida Crystals ($250K)
- US Sugar ($250K)
- Anthropic ($100K)
- Mosaic ($100K)
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We’re taking bipartisan action to defend the enforcement of state gambling laws against Kalshi.
Prediction markets can’t use federal loopholes to bypass states’ rights to regulate gaming.
We’ll continue to stand with our state partners to ensure federal laws aren’t weaponized to evade state laws.
oag.ca.gov/news/press-releas…
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🚨Polymarket is forcing hack victims to sign an NDA to receive their refunds !
The terms are insane:
- Full KYC (on a crypto platform)
- *AGREE TO NO PUBLICLY CRITICIZE POLYMARKET*
- Waive known AND unknown claims from the incident.
- Keep the settlement terms confidential
The gag clause is crazy.
It covers all statements "creating a negative, critical, or unfavorable impression,” including on social media.
Polymarket is essentially asking users to dox and silence themselves if they want any refunds for the hack THEY are responsible for.
Thanks to @TheNotoriousSKi for leaking the terms despite the NDA.
What about just owning up to the mistake and replenishing affected wallets ?
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🚨According to an exclusive report obtained by CNBC, there were numerous, unusual price spikes on Kalshi and Polymarket that pushed the odds in favor of LA Mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt.
Pratt had a 78% chance to advance to the runoff on Kalshi and lost.
Afterwards, Kalshi’s paid social media influencers suggested Pratt’s falling odds were evidence of California stealing the election.
FairPredicts will be playing close attention on Tuesday.
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Hey @mansourtarek_ if you need help understanding the ropes of what prison life is like call me!
I hear Utah wants to treat you to their stellar correctional facility accommodations. 💅🏻
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Banger
Wife Relieved To Learn Husband Lost Entire Paycheck On ‘Prediction Market' Instead Of Sports Betting buff.ly/Ywha3mD
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Coinbase scored another federal contract. Does that make its campaign contributions illegal?
washingtonsun.com/influence/…
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I genuinely believe our leaders should ban betting ads.
Every American, especially young ones, are watching their celebrity heroes sell a predatory industry...that's inherently designed to drain bank accounts.
We pulled cigarette ads off TV. We can do this too.
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A good rule of thumb is not to continue violating the criminal law in a jurisdiction while you wait for a possible future ruling to overturn the appellate ruling against you.
States are sovereign! Kalshi is not.
I normally respect your perspective, but charging someone with a crime that has a circuit split on it being a lawful business activity is improper. Perhaps Kalshi’s argument is dubious and maybe they should have geofenced Utah, but we all should condemn the use of a felony process against individuals to win a political debate. Our system is better than this.