StormTrackerSacher

Hearing lots of chatter about widespread cold coming mid-month... Just dove into some teleconnections and wanted to share my thoughts: There is lots of conflicting long-term data, and I don't think any model data has a great handle on anything beyond 10 days right now. Looking at the MJO it is expected to go into phase 2/3 over the next couple of weeks. This is traditionally a colder MJO phase for the central/east US in November. One of the strongest connections leading to some confidence in colder temperatures mid-month is the PNA soaring positive through the next week. This traditionally allows for colder air to spill down from Canada. However this does not mean that cold air is 100% going to spill down to the U.S. (especially central US). We also have a positive EPO which typically leads to more of a zonal and warmer flow in the U.S. One last thing we need to watch mid-month is the good old Polar Vortex! Nearly all model data is showing a SSW (displacement of the polar vortex) as we get into mid-November. This does not guarantee cold in the central US and I would argue (due to El Nino) this might be a Europe based SSW. This is an anomaly event as we don't normally get a visit from the polar vortex this early in the year (especially not in an super El Nino). The last time we had a polar vortex event in November was 1968. This is why I think models will struggle and potentially flip multiple times over the next few days! LOTS to track in the next few weeks as we kick off Fall. Going to be a battle of the polar vortex vs El Nino the next couple of weeks and I am PUMPED to see how it turns out!