John Baker retweeted
I said months ago "Serica mk 2" and that's the kind of upside I am targeting on this. That was the game changing event (a 5p entry to a move beyond 100p) and I hope this will replicate, eclipse that.
Everything is funded (three assets) and there's a strong probability of further such deals ahead. I love the fact that Endeavour are also on the board, overseeing and providing their technical expertise. A huge period ahead.
£65m valuation is still minimal for the set up here and the scale of assets and the obvious strength of related metals. Plus I really like this mining friendly jurisdiction. #EST
John Baker retweeted
Very pleasing but not surprising to see the momentum in the shares - a new record close yesterday. Some further thoughts below and mostly for those that are new to the company.
Most explorers follow the familiar pattern of raising capital, drilling early-stage targets and diluting shareholders while hoping something eventually works. Some are clearly very interesting, but very few have a structure that meaningfully reduces risk while preserving proper upside. East Star Resources stands apart because its model is unusually effective at creating multiple funded routes to discovery and cash flow. There are three funded assets already in place. Verkhuba, the most advanced copper deposit, is in a joint venture with Xinhai, who are funding the path to production while East Star is fully carried and retains a 30% interest. Rulikha, the second copper project (with an exploration target of up to 23 Mt at strong copper-equivalent grades), is advancing via Nova. They are funding the project through resource definition, feasibility, permitting, development and commissioning at no further cost to East Star, with Orion Development Ltd - an experienced Kazakhstan mine developer as operator. East Star retains at least 25% (and potentially 35%) at production. The third is the strategic gold joint venture with Endeavour Mining, which provides funding and technical leverage across a huge area in northern Kazakhstan. That combination already gives several distinct, partner-funded paths to material upside rather than single binary outcomes.
What really changes the picture (and a radically different share price) is what happens once further discovery’s are made and/or revenues begin. At that point the optionality on the cash becomes transformative and compounding. East Star has been carefully structured to reach production with partners but that free cash can then be deployed to acquire additional assets on attractive terms, self fund drilling on existing targets (which in turn can generate discoveries and further resource growth), and of course return capital to shareholders.
The same balance sheet and operating capability suddenly has far greater flexibility and again compounding potential.
In the meantime, news flow can be expected on so many fronts and the case is further strengthened by the realistic probability of additional joint ventures, particularly at Snowy and Piket. Existing relationships with capable partners, the track record of success already established on Verkhuba, Rulikha Endeavour, and the clear incentive of a chief executive who holds roughly 10% of the company and has already seen the share price respond all point in the same direction. Further partner funded advances on those targets would simply multiply the number of routes to upside still further. As for the CEOs ambition, he has publicly said many times the objective is to build East Star into a £BILLION+ company.
In short, three funded assets already provide multiple paths forward, cash flows unlock substantial optionality, discoveries present a gargantuan catalyst and the conditions for additional joint ventures look likely.
Very exciting times for the company and shareholders
#EST
#EST 👇
Proper statement of intent from the major JV partner turning up in Kazakhstan. Ultimately, the CEO of a FTSE 100 gold producer has taken the time to fly in, sit down with the government officials and industry and publicly call the JV a priority (which is fantastic to see). It obviously says a lot about how seriously Endeavour is taking this.
For those not following, the Endeavour JV covers two huge areas of interest (>300,000 km²) across the Kazakh orocline in northern Kazakhstan.
One is the Stepnogorsk region which is a proven gold belt hosting orogenic and intrusion-related systems. The other sits on the Balkash-Ili magmatic arc, which is still massively underexplored for porphyry and epithermal gold.
EST/ENV are specifically targeting intrusion related gold systems - the same style as Vasilkovskoye, Kazakhstan’s giant IRG deposit on the same belt with >15 Moz historically.
Endeavour are funding all the drilling so it's a hugely exciting time ahead.
This of course is all separate to the fully funded Copper programmes.
John Baker retweeted
FT: " Iranians in a small speedboat have attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by attaching limpet mines to the hull for the first time since 2019, suggesting a change in tactics by Tehran" ...
"People on the boat attached “two explosive devices” to the hull above the waterline, which detonated and caused a fire in the engine room"
John Baker retweeted
The last round already confirmed continuity of the deeper mineralisation and a northern shallow extension, so any further positive hits will strengthen the case for Xinhai as they fund this all the way to production.
At the same time Rulikha is now drilling under the Nova JV and the Endeavour gold JV is steadily advancing licence applications and target generation across a huge area. The potential there is quite ridiculous. That leaves the remaining 100% assets (Snowy epithermal, Piket porphyry) as obvious candidates for further partnerships. I think that happens besides other new licence areas. #EST
John Baker retweeted
This 👇🏼 like vat tax on private schools, (the only nation that taxes education)… all the student politics greed & envy laws just reduce income revenue, & lose jobs! Imbecilic economics
The Laffer Curve strikes again. Rachel Reeves’s absurd increases to stamp duty have backfired after tax receipts from property sales above £5m fell by £541m in the 18 months following her 2024 budget when she raised the second-home stamp duty surcharge to 5%.
Data from estate agents Knight Frank show that in the 18 months subsequent to the budget, the number of sales above £5m dropped by 14% from 2,569 to 2,208, when compared with the 18 months before the budget. Of course it is not just the stamp duty that is lost but also the economic activity that accompanies the property transactions.
Reeves has just signed up to the Chartwell Speakers agency to sell speeches for money. Surely for anyone to buy a speech from her is a badge of idiocy?
John Baker retweeted
There’s empty heads on here that think this is a bad thing when up until now we have been buying gas off Norway that drill it from the very same gas field
John Baker retweeted
Whoever is advising Burnham on these X posts needs to be swiftly removed.
Google Maps? Compare petrol prices?
How about addressing the NetZero issue…
Or reducing fuel duty…
Expectations were low when this man got the job, but holy shit!
I know people are worried about fuel prices. And I get it. You get to the pump, watch the numbers climb, and wonder why it's costing so much more than it used to.
The reality is that global events are pushing up costs, and families here at home are feeling the impact.
But I won't accept that there's nothing I can do to help.
That's why from today, you'll be able to see petrol and diesel prices on Google Maps, compare nearby stations and find the cheapest option before you fill up.
It's a small change, but if there's a practical way to help people keep more money in their pocket, I'll do it.
John Baker retweeted
The blame anyone but ourselves Prime Minister strikes again.
It's all smoke & mirrors so don't fall for it.
If the below is true why did Labour promise to cut everyone's bills by £300 ?
I want to be honest about how we’ve got to a place where British billpayers are paying some of the highest energy costs in Europe.
Over the past 40 years, we’ve given up control of our necessities, outsourced our essentials and privatised the basics. Water, transport, housing. And of course, energy.
Now the public are paying the price. We haven’t invested in the infrastructure we need. Conflict overseas has pushed up energy costs and it’s hurting our businesses and families.
That’s why we need to take back greater control of our energy system.
This week, I announced Great British Grid, which will speed up connections and push down bills.
We’re also giving mayors, local leaders and communities a stronger role. With funding for People’s Power projects, communities will be able to build solar panels on libraries and town halls, hydro schemes in rivers or publicly owned windfarms on local land.
But it’s not just energy we need stronger public control over. It’s also water, housing, transport and care.
So we’re repealing the ban on public ownership of water companies. We’re building more council homes than this country has seen since the end of World War Two.
We’re reforming the leasehold system so families aren’t squeezed for every penny. And we’re opening up home ownership for first time buyers who can’t rely on the bank of mum and dad.
This week I also announced my determination to introduce a National Care Service, to put people above profit and to give pensioners peace of mind.
Together, we’ll rewire the country from top to bottom so that it works for all people in all places.
That is the only way to put Britain back on the right path. It’s the only way to put power back in people’s hands. And it’s the only way we will bring hope again.
John Baker retweeted
The ships, jet fighters, Marines and sailors will arrive in the region by the end of November, the officials said. Trump recently told aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran that same month, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt left its home port of San Diego on Sunday on a scheduled deployment, while the USS Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group, comprising three amphibious ships carrying Marines from the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, left on Monday.
U.S. Sending Third Aircraft Carrier, Up to 10,000 More Troops, to Middle East
The deployments come as Trump weighs resuming bombing Iran after the midterms wsj.com/politics/national-se…
#EST 👇
I think of it like this.
To see material upside, the investment thesis does not require all three funded JVs. That is the striking feature of this setup.
Any one of the funded JVs, on its own, can transform the business and the share price.
Two successful partnerships delivers the kind of re-rate juniors almost never see.
All three would put EST into the £/£s (vs the current 9p). Endeavour have already told us the size of their targets.
The beauty of it is that you only need one to see outsized returns. It is a fabulous model.
#EST - A little later to the party , nevertheless a starter position taken of 400,000 shares… a very unique opp here imo
As promised, much more detail below (a lot to read!) on EAST STAR RESOURCES (#EST). A gold and copper play that I believe has major upside ahead. Due to posting this via mobile, I am splitting this longer commentary into multiple posts.
1/6 Who are they?
East Star are a £40 million valued metals explorer that over the past 10 months have transformed themselves from an independent explorer into a business with three fully funded joint ventures. Two of these deals see this current small cap fully funded to copper production, whilst a jv with Endeavour Mining (a top 10 global gold producer valued at £11 billion) see’s this gold giant positioning for a multi-million-ounce discovery. Beyond the jv, Endeavour have injected capital into the company for a 14% stake and appointed a member of the Endeavour Executive Management (the VP of Exploration and Growth) to the East Star board.
As a Kazakhstan-focused operator, East Stars assets sit in one of the world's most under-explored but mining-friendly jurisdictions. The deals offer transformative upside for the business and it’s striking they have managed to retain meaningful equity position in these partnerships on fully funded terms. Separate to these JV’d assets, East Star owns 100% interests in other porphery and epithermal projects with the CEO Alex Walker making it clear that “If a partner came along at the right valuation we’d be happy to entertain” further deals*. He has an explicit ambition to build East Star into a $1 billion+ company and is clearly incentivised by his 10% shareholding. His public commitment to a long-dated equity story rather than a short-term promote sits particularly well with me. As someone who lives in the country and sits on the board of the Kazakstan Chamber of mines he brings a level of in-country credibility that matters.
2.Why Kazakhstan?
This pro mining country ranks No.1 globally in uranium production, No.3 in copper, and No.5 in gold and is amongst the lowest-cost producing jurisdictions in the world.
East Star was an early mover into the jurisdiction with the majors BHP, Rio Tinto, First Quantum, Fortescue, Ivanhoe and Barrick also positioned.
The specific region East Star operates in is a hotbed for activity with major deposits surrounding their JV’d assets Verkhuba and Rulikha. Some examples here and all within 20-50km of their assets:
•Sekisovskoye. 6.7Moz @ 3g/t Au
•KAZ Minerals' Irtyshsky. 30Mt @ 2.2% Cu, 5.1% Zn
•KAZ Minerals' Artemyevsky. 51Mt @ 1.9% Cu, 6.4% Zn, 2% Pb
•KAZ Minerals' Nikolaevsky. 40Mt @ 2.4% Cu, 3.2% Zn, 1.1% Au
•Glencore's Ridder. 225Mt @ 0.4% Cu, 1.7% Zn
John Baker retweeted
It’s just fucking mad. Why does no one inside the govt make the case for it being cleaner (the North Sea)
I understand the lack of business experience might mean the nuances of the economic case might be lost on the Cabinet (incremental tax revenues helping with the balance of payments, or more oil and gas would help with resilience or more gas as gas is locally priced and that a coherent energy policy would help with the gilt moron premium) but to not articulate a policy that supports their climate ideology is beyond most of us with a brain
I see Trump calls for a ban on the export of US diesel, that Norway calls for curtailment of Norwegian energy exports…..business report in that Govt refuse to engage on anything re resilience - for example gas storage. Despair
Tick Tock
John Baker retweeted
In 2008 the UK paid the same price for natural gas as the US.
Today we pay eight times more.
Yet another example of how badly this country is and has been led.
If govt had just stayed out of it, this would not be the case. But no. They had to get involved.
John Baker retweeted
Given that Reform is confident it will be able to keep both Delo’s and Harborne’s £36m donations, both of them must have relocated to the UK.
If so, that presumably means they are prepared to incur tax liabilities in the UK here and now, as residents, seemingly for what they see as the benefits of installing Nigel Farage as prime minister.
This is in paradoxically stark contrast to other billionaires, like Chris Rokos, who are leaving the UK to escape liability to potentially higher taxes they fear will be imposed by the current government under Andy Burnham (such as a reform of capital gains tax)