We focus on reversals during emotional moves. 30 Minutes per day. Base hits. We're crushing it. See for yourself https://xitter.gq/t.co/pSpzt5rrgK
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Where exactly does the snap fire?
For the large-extension cohort, when 30% retrace trips, the price is still about half a daily range from prior close.
Median ATR% at the snap bar: 50%.
Plenty of room left for the move to keep mean-reverting after the trigger.
Finding 5: behavior varies enormously by name.
Sticky (close-retrace 21–28%): AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, CRM
Reverters (56–97%): MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, META, NKE
AMZN/GOOG run ~2x harder than peers. MSFT median close-retrace: 97%.
Symbol selection isn't a tweak — it's the model.
Finding 4: once a peak is set, the snap fires fast.
Median 2 minutes from peak to a 30% retrace.
p75 = 11 minutes.
The exhaustion bar IS the signal. Wait 30 minutes after the peak and the move is mostly done.
Finding 3: peaks aren't where folklore says.
50% peak in the first 90 minutes — overnight pre-positioning hitting the open.
34% peak in the last 2 hours — the "hype into close" meme.
Only 15% midday.
The hype-into-close cliché is real. It's just not the only mode.
Finding 1: the snap is the rule, not the exception.
85% of pre-earnings extensions retrace ≥30% from peak before close.
Even a 60% retrace threshold fires in 74% of events.
Only ~15% of moves run into the AMC report without unwinding.
It's earnings season so we pulled 96 mega-cap AMC earnings days over 2 years and asked one question:
When a name with sector weight extends during RTH before reporting after the close — how far does it run before the snap?
n=111 directional moves. 17 sector leaders. The shape is consistent. 🧵
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