Pinned Tweet
Trueo × DefiLlama
We’re proud to announce that Crypto’s analytics powerhouse is now a distribution partner for Trueo!
Our prediction markets are live on @DefiLlama dashboards, bringing markets on risk, revenue, AUM, and other metrics directly to the users tracking the data.
Trueo retweeted
Will Hyperliquid October revenue exceed $60M?
The market says 82.6% yes.
One of 8 revenue markets we've launched with @Trueo_ to trade protocol revenue numbers directly.
You can now trade protocol revenue and exploit odds. We're partnering with Trueo to launch new prediction markets that settle based on DefiLlama data.
Revenue Markets
If you follow the revenue meta, you can now trade that directly on Trueo. We launched markets for Hyperliquid, Pump, Aero, Uniswap, Collector Crypt, and Papertrade revenue.
Exploit Markets
Hedge against exploit risk by trading the odds of total DeFi hacks and exploits of specific protocols. We have markets for whether there will be exploits of Aave and Morpho this month. We also have weekly and monthly markets for the size of the largest hack.
Other Onchain Metrics
Robinhood Chain RWA mcap, Robinhood Chain DEX volume, and whether Solana or Base ends the week with higher TVL.
defillama.com/predictions
ETH WHALES ARE BUYING 🐋
@lookonchain reports whales are accumulating ETH: one withdrew 10,954 ETH ($26.97M) from Kraken and staked it. Trueo has ETH making no new low before 2027 at 85% Yes.
trueo.com/en/market/0x98d600…
Whales are accumulating $ETH!
0x4A85 withdrew 10,954 $ETH ($26.97M) from #Kraken and staked it after 4 months of inactivity.
0xdeA6 withdrew 9,000 $ETH ($22.42M) from #Binance and deposited it into Aave.
0xD338 withdrew 4,500 $ETH ($11.29M) from #Binance 10 hours ago.
arkm.com/explorer/address/0x…
arkm.com/explorer/address/0x…
arkm.com/explorer/address/0x…
Trueo retweeted
Excited to share that I'm now an attester for @Trueo_. Trueo lets anyone create a prediction market.
Disputes are resolved by attesters that are willing to stake our reputation behind decisions.
Skin in the game, as it should be.
BTC TREASURIES BARELY BUY 🐋
@Cointelegraph reports bitcoin treasury companies are back in profit, with BTC above their roughly $80K cost basis since Sept. 18. Trueo has Strategy turning a net BTC seller for the rest of 2026 at 15% Yes.
trueo.com/en/market/0x3140f2…
🚨 LATEST: bitcoin:native treasury companies are back in profit with Bitcoin trading above their roughly $80K cost basis since Sept. 18, yet they’ve barely resumed buying, per @glassnode .
TRENDING WATCH 🔥
PAPERTRADE TO CLEAR $85M IN OCTOBER REVENUE? TRUEO HAS IT AT 12%, DOWN FROM 68% AT LAUNCH AND 42% YESTERDAY. DEFILLAMA SHOWS $62M BOOKED THROUGH OCT 21, WITH JUST $177K ON OCT 21.
trueo.com/en/market/0xd671f0…
NEW GRADUATED MARKET 🎓
Will BoC raise rates at its Dec 9 meeting?
Odds: 47%
trueo.com/en/market/0x2313b9…
ASIA WATCH 🌏
HANG SENG TECH IS SET FOR ITS WORST DAY SINCE APRIL 2025'S LIBERATION DAY SELLOFF, WITH ITS DROP FROM PEAK NOW EXCEEDING 40%.
Major dislocation today in Chinese tech stocks in Hong Kong.
The Hang Seng Tech Index is set for its worst day since Trump's "Liberation Day" in April 2025. The selloff in charts:
1. Index drop from peak has now exceeded 40%
2. Price has all but fully erased gains from the 9/24 big bazooka event
3. Valuations are now at extreme lows (forward P/E of this tech group's now at 13x)
THE BLOCK: Polkadot alerted users that Fearless Wallet's browser extension had exposed private keys since February 2025.
The Polkadot Community Foundation said eight users reported unauthorized transactions totaling 17,286 DOT and urged affected wallet holders to generate new keypairs and move their funds.
Trueo retweeted
This is a very cool product:
Exploit prediction markets make it possible to buy insurance protection for the DeFi apps you use.
DeFiLlama only supports a few markets for now, but I think this has a lot of potential to grow.
You can now trade protocol revenue and exploit odds. We're partnering with Trueo to launch new prediction markets that settle based on DefiLlama data.
Revenue Markets
If you follow the revenue meta, you can now trade that directly on Trueo. We launched markets for Hyperliquid, Pump, Aero, Uniswap, Collector Crypt, and Papertrade revenue.
Exploit Markets
Hedge against exploit risk by trading the odds of total DeFi hacks and exploits of specific protocols. We have markets for whether there will be exploits of Aave and Morpho this month. We also have weekly and monthly markets for the size of the largest hack.
Other Onchain Metrics
Robinhood Chain RWA mcap, Robinhood Chain DEX volume, and whether Solana or Base ends the week with higher TVL.
defillama.com/predictions
Trueo retweeted
It’s insane to think how common exploits are in our industry.
This market is almost guaranteeing a $1M hack in the next week. Pretty eye opening when the odds are quantified this way tbh.
But I also think it strengthens Vitalik’s theory that AI will lead to fewer exploits over time and better software.
The overwhelming majority of DeFi hacks affect smaller projects that don’t have the resources to develop end to end verified code or anything even close to.
Access to frontier models means every dev gets a seasoned engineer that reviews their code at every stage of development.
It’s tough to argue that won’t lead to a reduction in security incidents.
CSI 300 DOWN 11 WEEKS STRAIGHT 📉
@Barchart says Chinese stocks are on track for their longest losing streak ever. So will China report 4.7%+ GDP growth for 2026? Trueo's odds: 35% Yes.
trueo.com/en/market/0xa88c97…
NEW GRADUATED MARKET 🎓
Will HSBC launch its HKD stablecoin to the public before 2027?
Odds: 76%
trueo.com/en/proposal/829
NEW GRADUATED MARKET 🎓
Will Lombard suffer an on-chain exploit before Jan 1, 2027?
Odds: 14%
trueo.com/en/market/0x0ff3d4…
NEW GRADUATED MARKET 🎓
Will Metric TVL reach $25M by end of October?
Odds: 50%
trueo.com/en/proposal/843
OKXICE UPDATE 📈
THE SEC LISTED OKXICE TSV AMONG THREE FIRMS THAT HAVE FILED TO RUN TOKENIZED SECURITIES VENUES UNDER ITS INNOVATION EXEMPTION.
OKXICE TOKENIZED STOCKS ODDS: 76%
trueo.com/en/market/0x0717f9…
THE BLOCK: SEC lists three firms that have filed notices to operate tokenized securities venues under its Innovation Exemption: TSV LLC, OKXICE TSV, and Perpetuals[dot]com (Kephas Corporation).
"Inclusion on the list does not mean that the person meets the definition of 'Tokenized Securities Venue' under the Innovation Exemption Order, nor does it mean that the person has established that it meets the conditions of the TSV Exemption," the SEC noted.
DEX MERGER WATCH 🔀
AERODROME AND VELODROME MERGED TO LAUNCH AERO ACROSS SEVEN CHAINS, REPLACING WEEKLY LIQUIDITY-REWARD VOTES WITH CONTINUOUS ALLOCATION.
Aerodrome and Velodrome merge to launch Aero across seven blockchain networks theblock.co/news/defi/2026-1…
