Nathaniel Tabor / Meteorologist / father and husband / lover of all things weather
Houston Tx
Joined March 2022
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Guys wake up! It’s fantasy mega front season on the GFS!! (Second only to fantasy mega hurricane season)
We are in for wet, and thundery night here in Houston… welcome to your winter pattern. It only gets cooler and more wet from here.
Quite the agreement on a signal for more blocking/ridging over Alaska and nothing Canada. Not a lot of cold air built up there yet but either way this looks to pose a chillier risk towards thanksgiving. Time will tell.
Really pretty halo around the sun today as we get ready for rain to move into town… get used to this look outside, it’s going to be very common to bet the next several months.
El Niño is beginning to take a strong hold on the pattern which could become quite active, featuring a storm system here in the southern plains with a cadence of at least once or twice per week. This will keep precipitation above normal and temps near to maybe slightly cooler than normal given the cloud cover. A good prelude to our winter pattern is starting to show itself.
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Honestly incredibly impressive. Nothing but hats off to this really incredible forecast.
❄️🌀🌎 Early November 2026 — Stratospheric Warming Signal
Early-November Polar Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Signal | 3–10 November 2026
The latest structural-analog analysis is showing a notable increase in the likelihood of a possible early-November sudden stratospheric warming episode during 3–10 November 2026, with the signal particularly pronounced across the Eurasian and North American sectors. This early November SSW had also oddly materialized in November 2025, which is considered a rare event .
The forecast is based on 20 candidate structural analogs for November 2026, with the resulting pattern remaining robust after resampling across 10 independent random-season ensembles.
The 10-hPa temperature composite shows a pronounced positive temperature anomaly across the Arctic/polar stratosphere, with the strongest warming extending through the Eurasian and North American sectors.
The accompanying 100-hPa vector-wind composite also indicates a highly disturbed circulation pattern around the polar region, providing additional evidence of an anomalous large-scale dynamical configuration during the same period.
⚠️ Important: This is not a confirmation of an SSW event. At this stage, it represents an analog-based probabilistic signal. Confirmation would require the dynamical evolution to produce the characteristic weakening and/or reversal of the 10-hPa polar-night jet, particularly in the zonal-mean winds near 60°N.
The next level of verification is therefore to examine the 10-, 30-, 50-, and 100-hPa circulation structure, including the evolution of the polar vortex and the potential role of upward-propagating planetary wave-1 and wave-2 activity.
If the temperature and wind signals remain dynamically coherent as we approach November, the case for an early-November stratospheric disruption becomes considerably stronger.
🔹 Forecast window: 3–10 November 2026
🔹 Method: Structural Analog Modeling + Random-Season Resampling
🔹 Candidate analogs: 20
🔹 Validation: 10 independent random-season ensembles
🔹 Primary diagnostic: 10-hPa polar temperature
🔹 Dynamical support: 100-hPa vector-wind structure
See the previous forecast for Nov SSW signal found from June in the comments please .
Statistical Model by @Statisticizer
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I feel like given all the talk about stratospheric warming and polar vortex disruption some things need to be clarified:
1. A SSW(sudden stratospheric warming) and potential subsequent reversal in winds associated with the stratospheric polar vortex DO NOT guarantee wave reflections back to the troposphere or coupling. It can have significant impacts should coupling/reflections to the lower atmosphere occur, but that is something that is still an unknown and will need to be observed in coming days and weeks. Wave reflection can have impacts sooner, coupling can take longer.
2. Notice how I said weeks… there is usually a lag period between the actual disruptive warming event/reversal itself and subsequent downward reflection and/or potential coupling. This can take time, and is still not a guarantee.
3. With the above being said this may have impacts on our pattern at 500 MB down the road come mid/late November, but right now that is TBD. In any case the Nino enhanced sub tropical jet will lead to increased storminess, with wetter and cooler potential for the southern tier of the United States as we move deeper into November, that’s just Nino climo.
So while this may be exciting for winter weather enthusiasts and while this event is extraordinary given the environment and time of year it is occurring, nothing is set in stone as of yet. Could this lead to a colder pattern later into November? Yes. Could wave propagation simply be absorbed by the stratosphere leaving a weakened vortex with little downward propagation/surface effects? Also yes. (The second scenario still doesn’t preclude downward coupling later down the road)
We know this will more likely than not significantly disrupt the polar vortex, but we still need to have some patience and observe downward coupling/wave propagation over the next 2-4 weeks. Canada is also going to remain quite warm during this time, so any true cold will need to originate via cross polar flow should we get enough polar blocking. Just several things to think about before we get either too hyped up, or too dismissive of this event at the moment.
The geese have arrived in the Houston area, and so has fall color. Shaping up to be a real stunner for foliage if it isn’t knocked down by the coming rains.
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Here comes the rain
Much of the U.S. is leaning toward a wet end to October into the beginning of November! Above-normal precipitation is broadly favored, with the strongest probabilities focused over parts of coastal southern California and the Southwest, and lower chances elsewhere.
ALT The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued October 22, 2026 valid October 30 to November 5, 2026 depicts broad chances of above-normal precipitation over much of the U.S. 60 to 70 percent chances of above-normal precipitation are indicated over coastal southern California, southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and southwestern Texas. 50 to 60 percent chances of above-normal precipitation cover much of California, stretching through the southern half of Nevada and Utah, into Oklahoma and most of Texas. Broader 40 to 50 percent chances and 33 to 40 percent chances of above-normal precipitation cover much of the U.S., with the exception of Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and New England, where near-normal precipitation is favored.
This is amazing. Radial shear and vortex rossby waves shaping the eyewall of champi into a hexagonal shape. Similar vortex dynamics can be seen at the poles Saturn. Incredibly intense vortex represented here.
You will be very hard pressed to find a better satellite representation of a tropical cyclone. Super Typhoon Champi should be on the cover of textbooks. Just a beautiful storm.
That’s definitely the sub tropical jet starting to really fire as we move towards Halloween. Going to start getting very rainy in the southern tier of the U.S. it seems.
Incoming heavy storms on the west side of Houston, keep an eye out for minor street flooding/ponding as these will drop heavy rainfall.
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After a brief cool shot this weekend it’s looking like warmth’s returns for a good chunk of North America. However, looking into the longer range on the euro weeklies it’s becoming increasingly obvious (at least on guidance) that our El Niño will be exerting itself on the pattern more and more the deeper we get into fall. Notice the sub tropical jet beginning to show up in the long range with undercutting across the southern tier of the U.S., and higher than normal precipitation analogies beginning to show themselves as well.
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
The Florida Big Bend (including Tallahassee) will be outside the "core" of Isaias, but will be on the "dirty side" to the east of the center, with a lot of training bands coming in. Mesoscale modeling suggests that these bands could have cells capable of producing tornadoes.
We've seen Gulf storms interacting with a trough become prolific tornado producers even well away from the center/coast. Examples include Ivan, Beryl, and Milton.
Definitely pay attention to warnings tonight. Have a way to get warnings even after you go to bed, and make sure phone emergency notifications are turned on.
