Nathaniel Tabor / Meteorologist / father and husband / lover of all things weather
Houston Tx
Joined March 2022
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Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
The Florida Big Bend (including Tallahassee) will be outside the "core" of Isaias, but will be on the "dirty side" to the east of the center, with a lot of training bands coming in. Mesoscale modeling suggests that these bands could have cells capable of producing tornadoes.
We've seen Gulf storms interacting with a trough become prolific tornado producers even well away from the center/coast. Examples include Ivan, Beryl, and Milton.
Definitely pay attention to warnings tonight. Have a way to get warnings even after you go to bed, and make sure phone emergency notifications are turned on.
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
1030 pm CDT -- Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that Isaias has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. The minimum central pressure is down to 982 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Update: nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI…
ALT GeoColor Image of Hurricane Isaias
ALT Tropical Cyclone Update Text for Isaias
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
🌀A tropical disturbance now has a 100% formation chance and a depression could form soon. 🌀 No major impacts expected for SE Texas yet, but expect gusty winds & building seas at the coast. Stay tuned! #txwx #houwx
ALT A weather graphic from the National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston, Texas, dated 12 PM October 6, 2026, showing a tropical weather outlook with a 100 percent formation chance for a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, noting that a tropical depression is likely to form soon and move east-northeast before turning northward.
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
100PM CDT: Here are the Key Messages for Invest #92L located over the southwestern Gulf of America. For the latest updates on this disturbance visit hurricanes.gov
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
Taking a look at the environmental factors for the potential Gulf system this week, it's a mixed bag.
Favorable factors:
-SST is above average pretty much across the board still.
-The upper level winds will be very divergent, with a jet entrance region to the NE. Lots of synoptic lift.
Unfavorable factors:
-Persistent westerly shear over the system.
-Upshear dry air.
The shear+dry air combo is gonna be pretty tough for the favorable factors to overcome, but we'll see.
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
8 am EDT Oct 5 - A trough in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. Visit hurricanes.gov for updates.
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
A special weather statement has been issued for Atascocita TX, Barrett TX and Crosby TX until 4:15 PM CDT
ALT This graphic displays a special weather statement plotted on a map. The statement is in effect until 4:15 PM CDT. The statement includes Atascocita TX, Barrett TX and Crosby TX. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT. The threats associated with this storm are wind gusts up to 40 MPH and no hail is expected. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure until the storm passes.
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
Locally, very few changes were made to the forecast. Portions of Southeast Texas are situated in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Thursday.
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding from Hurricane Polo's remnants are still on tap this week from the Desert Southwest to the Midwest. WPC has outlined Moderate Risks (level 3/4) for excessive rainfall on Monday and Tuesday, with Slight Risks (level 2/4) for Wednesday and Thursday (while noting the possibility of upgrades in future outlooks).
Ample tropical moisture will begin surging northward tomorrow (Monday, September 28), even before Polo makes landfall on the Baja California Peninsula. This, coupled with a shortwave trough moving inland from the Pacific and favorable terrain, will provide the necessary ingredients for a robust predecessor rainfall event (PRE) on Monday across the Desert Southwest. PREs can occur several hundred miles poleward of recurving tropical cyclones; perhaps the most notable one in recent memory was the devastating rainfall event in the southern Appalachians ahead of Hurricane Helene in September 2024.
On Tuesday, the threat will extend from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains. By this time, Polo's remnants will start to be absorbed by the incoming shortwave. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent, favorable terrain, and anomalously high atmospheric moisture content for this time of year (precipitable water values forecast to break records in many locations) will provide another round of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, particularly from Arizona into west Texas, with some threat extending into the Midwest.
The shortwave and anomalous moisture will stick around on Wednesday and Thursday, with the excessive rainfall threat focusing across the Southern Plains and vicinity.
Through Friday, widespread rainfall totals over 3" are expected, with 5-7" (locally higher) possible in some spots across the Southern Plains, particularly from Texas into Oklahoma. Please take any and all flash flood advisories seriously, and do not drive into flooded roadways.
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
Big time rain signal across the South Central US. This really gets going later this week. Relief is finally on the way for this area of the country.
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
12z HRRR showing a very aggressive scenario through Saturday morning. It has a strong storm system with the MB dropping into the low 980s.
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
From the 5 am NHC discussion for #Polo:
"The intensification rate over the past 24 hours
is truly remarkable, with Polo strengthening by about 90 kt over that time period."
From yesterday's 11 am discussion:
"Every model responds to these conditions by
showing rapid intensification, and the SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing percentages as high as I have ever seen them. The new forecast is raised from the previous one and is very aggressive, but still below the latest HCCA corrected-consensus aid, which verbatim would be at least a 99th percentile event for intensification."
Very well-anticipated RI event. Kudos to NHC.
This has been one of the things I've been most excited to see during my career so far: we're getting better in our ability to predict RI. Not perfect, but with tools like SHIPS-RI, HAFS, Google DeepMind, and forecaster awareness, we can get it right a lot more than we did 10-15 years ago.
Definitely curious what our flight into #Polo will hold today. Looks like it could be my second Cat5 flight (first being Melissa last year).
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
Happening Now
Heavy thunderstorms with dangerous cloud to ground lightning and heavy downpours
HWY 6 and 1-10 West
@abc13houston
@TxStormChasers
#houwx #htx #TXWX #hounews
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
Still a very strong signal for #99E to eventually intensify into a powerful hurricane south of #Mexico next week. There is ongoing track uncertainty though, in terms of whether it moves north into the coast or bends west for a time. Some of this uncertainty seems to be driven by possible interactions with #98E further west. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
Today in 2008, Hurricane Ike makes landfall east of Galveston Island, then slams into Houston. #houwx
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
Another round of isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon with the best chances of rain near and south of I-10. Outside of the rain, hot temperatures prevail with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the 100s. Rain chances increase midweek. #TXwx #HOUwx
Nathaniel Tabor retweeted
Watching Hurricane #Lowell move toward its brush-by of the main Hawaiian Islands tomorrow, likely bringing dangerous conditions to #Kauai, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in place. Hope everyone stays safe in Kauai and the outlying islands to its west.
Some outer bands may also bring high wind gusts and downpours to #Oahu, where I will hope for no power outages.
