Jewish stuff, lawyer stuff, Orioles
Joined May 2009
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Brandon Levey retweeted
In 2019, during the first Trump Administration, I wrote: “One day in the not too distant future, Republicans will wake up and say, ‘We did this for this man?’” It’s taken longer than I thought, but I think that day is finally coming.
Brandon Levey retweeted
Torn between two impulses
(1) All polling and prediction market indicators suggest Troy Jackson is going to win
(2) I really believe, in my bones, that Susan Collins is an immortal who cannot be defeated by a man of woman born
Brandon Levey retweeted
Before you vote tomorrow, fill up your tank and go grocery shopping — it will inform your decision.
2024 is just false. In 2016 he was closer than pretty much anyone else. And obviously correct the other two times. So this is a bad point
Nate Silver is really good at predicting presidential elections too.
Here is his record.
2012 - Obama
2016 - Clinton
2020 - Biden
2024 - Harris
4 straight. Oh wait. Just 4 straight Democrats
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Nate Silver produces probabilistic models rather than definitive predictions. In 2024, his final forecast model showed a 50/50 toss-up between Harris (50.015%) and Trump (49.985%), with Trump winning all swing states as the single most common map outcome: natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-… natesilver.net/p/the-model-ex…
Brandon Levey retweeted
here's the entirety of the seeming mental breakdown Haley Stevens just had on CNN. One of the most bizarre and incoherent political interviews I can recall. Note how she's completely unable to explain why she changed her mind from supporting Abdul El-Sayed last night to endorsing Mike Rogers today.
Brandon Levey retweeted
Axios: Josh Shapiro’s reaction to Haley Stevens endorsing Rogers.
Doesn’t mention Stevens or El-Sayed by name
“I'm for all the Democrats running. We need to win back the Senate. I don't think we should be enabling Donald Trump with a vote for Mike Rogers, period.”
Brandon Levey retweeted
Nate Cohn points out that the Times' changed its weighing process this year. This is what the new polls would look like with the old weighing process. So they're already trying to protect against a pro-Dem polling error nytimes.com/2026/11/01/upsho…
Congrats to @HaleyforMI for finally getting the attention she so desperately craves
Brandon Levey retweeted
NYT: Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) said that Haley Stevens had told him in a phone call about 10 p.m. last night that she was still behind Dr. Abdul El-Sayed. Raskin said that he had pressed Stevens.
“I just want to be very clear about that: You’re supporting the whole ticket, including Abdul?” he said he had asked her. “And she said yes.”
This is neat
I walked the Trump rally line to listen, not make assumptions. I talked with voters, asked questions and heard what matters to them.
When I'm elected, I'll represent all 82 counties and every Mississippian, no matter who they voted for. That's what being your senator means. #MississippiMatters
Brandon Levey retweeted
There are now 642k Texans who have early voted who did not vote at all in the 2024 Presidential election. 48% of them (310,997) are Hispanic. And 39% (122,461) of those Hispanic surge voters are under the age of 30.
Wtf happened to this guy
If you're black, I have the easiest Halloween costume for you. Wrap an Israeli flag around you, and just start calling everyone you see an antisemite. Voila, you're @VanJones68.
Brandon Levey retweeted
They risked their lives for the United States and now we're sending them to their death.
Breaking News: The Trump administration has detained dozens of Afghan immigrants in Louisiana — including relatives of those who helped the U.S. military — and plans to deport them to Afghanistan, according to U.S. officials. nyti.ms/4jPVvrw
Paxton getting 36% of Hispanic voters?
Good luck with that
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS TEXAS SENATE AND GOVERNOR POLL | October 30, 2026
Our final survey of Texas finds Ken Paxton leading James Talarico by 1.1 points for U.S. Senate and Greg Abbott leading Gina Hinojosa by 4.9 for Governor, a week out from Election Day.
📊 U.S. Senate Ballot
🔴 Ken Paxton: 48.7%
🔵 James Talarico: 47.6%
⚪️ Undecided: 2.2%
⚪️ Ted Brown (L): 1.4%
— Paxton leads by 1.1 points.
— With leaners allocated:
🔴 Paxton 49.4%
🔵 Talarico 48.4%
— Paxton +1.0
📊 Two-Candidate
🔴 Paxton 50.6%
🔵 Talarico 49.4%
— Paxton +1.2
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
📊 Governor Ballot
🔴 Greg Abbott: 50.7%
🔵 Gina Hinojosa: 45.8%
⚪️ Undecided: 2.3%
⚪️ Pat Dixon (L): 1.2%
— Abbott leads by 4.9 points.
— With leaners allocated:
🔴 Abbott 51.6%
🔵 Hinojosa 46.3%
— Abbott +5.3
📊 Two-Candidate Ballot
🔴 Abbott 52.5%
🔵 Hinojosa 47.5%
— Abbott +5.1
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
📊 Gender
Senate
Women: Talarico +7
Men: Paxton +11
Governor
Women: Hinojosa +3
Men: Abbott +13
📊 Race / Ethnicity
Senate
White: Paxton +25
Black: Talarico +71
Hispanic: Talarico +23
Governor
White: Abbott +28
Black: Hinojosa +68 Hispanic: Hinojosa +19
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Since our October 9–11 wave (Paxton +0.5), Paxton is up 1.5 and Talarico up 0.9. Undecided fell from 3.9 to 2.2.
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
October 26–28, 2026 · 1,221 LV · MoE ±3.2
Read the full report and crosstabs: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling
We gotta stop trusting polls if this stuff doesn’t verify I can’t take a Selzer 2.0
WaPo/Schar poll | 10/22-10/26 LV
US Senate Kansas 2026
🟦Adam Hamilton 52%
🟥Roger Marshall 43% (incumbent)
🟨David Graham 4%
Link to poll: washingtonpost.com/tablet/20…
