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Tee Higgins vs Titans Defense ๐ฆ๐ฅ
50 Likes For The Next NFL Player Spot Im On โค๏ธ
I REALLY LIKE THIS SPOT FOR TEE HIGGINS. Tee Higgins is listed as WR2 with a 23.4% target share (50 targets), 8.3 targets per game, running a route on 81.4% of dropbacks. He's up against a Titans defense that ranks among the softer spots for WR2 production this season.
When you filter Tee Higgins's L10 games with 7+ targets:
๐ฏ 6.1 Receptions AVG
๐ฅ 99.1 Receiving Yards AVG
Season 2026 with 7+ targets (4 games):
๐ฏ 7 Receptions AVG
๐ฅ 122.5 Receiving Yards AVG
๐ TITANS DEFENSE VS WR2
๐ฏ 4.6 Receptions/G โ 3rd most
๐ฅ 67.9 Receiving Yards/G โ 3rd most
๐ 0 Receiving TD/G โ 25th most (tough)
๐จ 0.1 Red Zone Targets/G โ 30th most (tough)
๐ TITANS COVERAGE MATCHUP
๐ฅ Zone โ 86.1% | ๐ฏ Man โ 13.9%
Now look at Higgins against Zone:
๐ฏ 25% Targets/Route | ๐ฅ 9.2 YDS/Target | ๐ฅ 2.3 YDS/Route | ๐ฏ 63.6% Catch Rate
๐ฅ COVER 3 (33.3% of TEN)
๐ฏ 15.6% Targets/Route | ๐ฅ 5.7 YDS/Target | ๐ฅ 0.9 YDS/Route | ๐ฏ 50% Catch Rate
๐ฅ TEE HIGGINS ALIGNMENT MATCHUP
๐ฏ WIDE โ 90% of routes
151 Routes | 39 Targets | 25 Receptions | 401 Yards | 10.3 YDS/Target | ๐ฅ 2.7 YDS/Route | ๐ฏ 64% Catch Rate | 1 TD
๐ TITANS VS WIDE
๐ฏ 62 Receptions Allowed โ 3rd most
๐ฏ 122.0 YDS/G โ 12th most
๐ฏ 75.6 Catch Rate โ MOST in NFL
๐ฏ 8.9 Y/TGT โ 11th most
๐ฏ 1 TDs โ 30th most
๐ฏ 82 Targets Allowed โ 11th most
THIS IS THE OVERLAP I WANT TO SEE. Higgins spends real volume at Wide, and that's a spot Titans has been softer against.
๐ฏ TEE HIGGINS ROUTE TREE VS TITANS
GO โ 18.3% of routes (MOST FREQUENTLY RUN) | 5 Targets | 13.4 YDS/Target | 60.0% Catch | +1.72 EPA/T
TEN allows 15.3 YDS/G โ 29th most
๐ฅ HITCH โ 18.3% of routes | 6 Targets | 8.7 YDS/Target | 50.0% Catch | +0.40 EPA/T
TEN allows 60.0 YDS/G โ MOST in NFL
๐ฏ IN โ 16.5% of routes | 10 Targets | 14.8 YDS/Target | 100.0% Catch | +1.20 EPA/T
TEN allows 19.3 YDS/G โ 20th most
๐ฏ POST โ 14.0% of routes | 3 Targets | 9.7 YDS/Target | 66.7% Catch | +0.22 EPA/T
TEN allows 3.7 YDS/G โ 29th most
๐ฏ OUT โ 10.4% of routes | 6 Targets | 4.8 YDS/Target | 33.3% Catch | -0.32 EPA/T
TEN allows 26.2 YDS/G โ 20th most
The HITCH is the route that REALLY catches my attention and Titans ranks MOST in NFL in yards allowed there.
The biggest question is whether the Bengals keep feeding him enough volume with a potential blowout. I'M DEFINITELY INTERESTED IN TEE HIGGINS RECEIVING YARDS HERE. ๐๐ฅ
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What every defense allows to each position this season, with the current prop line right under it.
Green = soft matchup, red = tough matchup
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See what every defense is allowing to each role per game this season, and right under it, the current line.
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Winning Playbook retweeted
BONUS BEEF GIVEAWAY ๐ค
In honor of tonight's Luka vs. Yaxel rematch, we decided to give out some bonus bets ๐ค
For a chance to win:
1๏ธโฃ REPOST
2๏ธโฃ FOLLOW @FanDuelSports
3๏ธโฃ REPLY with how many points you think Luka will score tonight
Rules: bit.ly/FanDuelBonusBeefSweepโฆ
DeVonta Smith missed practice AGAIN ๐จ
Dallas Goedert = FULL participant ๐
If Smitty sits vs Washington, Goedert becomes Philly's top target ๐ฏ
NBA FRIDAY DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS ๐๐ฅ
If Yโall Want This Daily Run Up The Likes โค๏ธ
Every starter vs defense allows. ๐ข Green = soft matchup | ๐ด Red = tough matchup
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And they Put him back on the field this feels like Jalen hurts they donโt care about they players? I donโt even care about my bet but if it was all this what did they gain putting him back on the field?
Christian Watson suffered broken rib; was coughing up blood, via @RobDemovsky.
1-0 on Instagram ๐จ๐ฝโ๐ณ follow the ig
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Instagram now gets the X drop me a follow over there gonna try and turn up instagram ๐ค๐ฝ instagram.com/p/DfFnnwylufg/โฆ
6 straight writeups have had a touchdown tet can make it 7๐จ๐ฆ
TUCKER KRAFT vs Panthers Defense ๐ฆ๐ฅ
50 Likes For The Next NFL Player Spot Im On โค๏ธ
Carolina is giving up 6.0 targets, 3.7 receptions and 0.5 touchdowns a game to TE1s Tucker Kraft is the clear TE1 lining up inline on 54% of his routes right where Carolina is softest.
๐ ROLE MATCHUP โ CAR vs TE1 (2026)
๐ฅ Targets allowed โ 6.0/g (rank 7)
๐ฅ RZ targets allowed โ 1.3/g (rank 4)
๐ฏ Receptions allowed โ 3.7/g (rank 14)
๐ฏ Rec yards allowed โ 35.2/g (rank 16)
๐ฅ Rec TD allowed โ 0.5/g (rank 6)
๐ ROLE PROOF โ GB TEAM SHARE (2026)
๐ฅ Tucker Kraft โ 16.3% target share, 69.2% route rate
๐ฏ 6.1 targets/g, 4.1 rec/g, 42.4 yds/g
๐จ 21.6% red zone target share
THIS IS THE TE1 ROLE. He's matching Carolina's allowed target rate almost exactly at 6.1 a game, and with Musgrave out there's nobody pushing him at tight end.
๐ THE FILTER (2026)
๐ฅ In games with 5+ targets (CAR allows 6.0) โ 6 games, avg 47.0 receiving yards
๐ฅ In games with 3+ receptions (CAR allows 3.7) โ 6 games, avg 47.0 receiving yards
When he gets the volume this defense allows, he's at 47 yards clear of 41.5.
๐ ROUTE TREE vs CAR
๐ฅ Flat โ 23.7% of routes (MOST run) | CAR allows 15.8 yds/g (rank 27) | 30.0% tgt share, 83.3% catch, 4.3 Y/T
๐ฅ Hitch โ 17.2% | CAR allows 48.4 yds/g (rank 3) | 20.7% tgt share, 83.3% catch, 7.3 Y/T
๐ฅ Go โ 16.0% | CAR allows 42.4 yds/g (rank 4) | 14.8% tgt share, 5.8 Y/T
๐ฏ Screen โ 5.9% | 70.0% tgt share, 71.4% catch, 4.6 Y/T
The hitch is the one I want. Carolina ranks 3rd softest on it at 48.4 yards a game, and Tucker Kraft is catching 83.3% of his hitch targets. The flat is his volume route at almost a quarter of his tree.
๐ COVERAGE vs CAR
๐ฅ Cover 3 โ 47.9% of CAR's mix | Tucker Kraft 80.0% catch, 7.4 Y/T (above his 6.7 avg)
๐ฏ Zone โ 86.7% | 69.7% catch, 7.1 Y/T
Carolina lives in Cover 3, and that's where he's catching 80% of his targets at 7.4 yards a look. Neutral fit, but the catch rate against their main coverage is the edge.
๐ ALIGNMENT
๐ฅ Inline TE โ 54% of routes (MOST USED, BEST) โ 7.8 Y/T, 2.0 Y/RR, 1 TD
๐ฅ CAR at Inline TE โ 41.0 yds/g (rank 7), 79.2% catch, 8.5 Y/T
THIS IS THE OVERLAP. He lines up inline on more than half his routes, and Carolina is the 7th softest defense in football against inline tight ends.
๐ ANYTIME TD (+175)
๐ฅ CAR allows 0.5 TE TD/g (rank 6)
๐ฅ Tucker Kraft โ 21.6% red zone target share (8)
๐ฏ Priced +175
Small sprinkle on the red zone share and the TE touchdown leak.
Carolina feeds TE1 targets, Tucker Kraft is that guy at 6.1 a game. I'M DEFINITELY INTERESTED IN TUCKER KRAFT OVER 41.5 RECEIVING YARDS ๐๐ฅ
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TUCKER KRAFT vs Panthers Defense ๐ฆ๐ฅ
50 Likes For The Next NFL Player Spot Im On โค๏ธ
Carolina is giving up 6.0 targets, 3.7 receptions and 0.5 touchdowns a game to TE1s Tucker Kraft is the clear TE1 lining up inline on 54% of his routes right where Carolina is softest.
๐ ROLE MATCHUP โ CAR vs TE1 (2026)
๐ฅ Targets allowed โ 6.0/g (rank 7)
๐ฅ RZ targets allowed โ 1.3/g (rank 4)
๐ฏ Receptions allowed โ 3.7/g (rank 14)
๐ฏ Rec yards allowed โ 35.2/g (rank 16)
๐ฅ Rec TD allowed โ 0.5/g (rank 6)
๐ ROLE PROOF โ GB TEAM SHARE (2026)
๐ฅ Tucker Kraft โ 16.3% target share, 69.2% route rate
๐ฏ 6.1 targets/g, 4.1 rec/g, 42.4 yds/g
๐จ 21.6% red zone target share
THIS IS THE TE1 ROLE. He's matching Carolina's allowed target rate almost exactly at 6.1 a game, and with Musgrave out there's nobody pushing him at tight end.
๐ THE FILTER (2026)
๐ฅ In games with 5+ targets (CAR allows 6.0) โ 6 games, avg 47.0 receiving yards
๐ฅ In games with 3+ receptions (CAR allows 3.7) โ 6 games, avg 47.0 receiving yards
When he gets the volume this defense allows, he's at 47 yards clear of 41.5.
๐ ROUTE TREE vs CAR
๐ฅ Flat โ 23.7% of routes (MOST run) | CAR allows 15.8 yds/g (rank 27) | 30.0% tgt share, 83.3% catch, 4.3 Y/T
๐ฅ Hitch โ 17.2% | CAR allows 48.4 yds/g (rank 3) | 20.7% tgt share, 83.3% catch, 7.3 Y/T
๐ฅ Go โ 16.0% | CAR allows 42.4 yds/g (rank 4) | 14.8% tgt share, 5.8 Y/T
๐ฏ Screen โ 5.9% | 70.0% tgt share, 71.4% catch, 4.6 Y/T
The hitch is the one I want. Carolina ranks 3rd softest on it at 48.4 yards a game, and Tucker Kraft is catching 83.3% of his hitch targets. The flat is his volume route at almost a quarter of his tree.
๐ COVERAGE vs CAR
๐ฅ Cover 3 โ 47.9% of CAR's mix | Tucker Kraft 80.0% catch, 7.4 Y/T (above his 6.7 avg)
๐ฏ Zone โ 86.7% | 69.7% catch, 7.1 Y/T
Carolina lives in Cover 3, and that's where he's catching 80% of his targets at 7.4 yards a look. Neutral fit, but the catch rate against their main coverage is the edge.
๐ ALIGNMENT
๐ฅ Inline TE โ 54% of routes (MOST USED, BEST) โ 7.8 Y/T, 2.0 Y/RR, 1 TD
๐ฅ CAR at Inline TE โ 41.0 yds/g (rank 7), 79.2% catch, 8.5 Y/T
THIS IS THE OVERLAP. He lines up inline on more than half his routes, and Carolina is the 7th softest defense in football against inline tight ends.
๐ ANYTIME TD (+175)
๐ฅ CAR allows 0.5 TE TD/g (rank 6)
๐ฅ Tucker Kraft โ 21.6% red zone target share (8)
๐ฏ Priced +175
Small sprinkle on the red zone share and the TE touchdown leak.
Carolina feeds TE1 targets, Tucker Kraft is that guy at 6.1 a game. I'M DEFINITELY INTERESTED IN TUCKER KRAFT OVER 41.5 RECEIVING YARDS ๐๐ฅ
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Instagram now gets the X drop me a follow over there gonna try and turn up instagram ๐ค๐ฝ instagram.com/p/DfFnnwylufg/โฆ
Packers run for 59.9 yards a game. Dead last in the NFL. Panthers allow 153.2 rushing yards a game. Also dead last.
Tampa just ran for 258 on them Sunday Something breaks tonight at Lambeau. I know where I'm digging.๐
TUCKER KRAFT vs Panthers Defense ๐ฆ๐ฅ
50 Likes For The Next NFL Player Spot Im On โค๏ธ
Carolina is giving up 6.0 targets, 3.7 receptions and 0.5 touchdowns a game to TE1s Tucker Kraft is the clear TE1 lining up inline on 54% of his routes right where Carolina is softest.
๐ ROLE MATCHUP โ CAR vs TE1 (2026)
๐ฅ Targets allowed โ 6.0/g (rank 7)
๐ฅ RZ targets allowed โ 1.3/g (rank 4)
๐ฏ Receptions allowed โ 3.7/g (rank 14)
๐ฏ Rec yards allowed โ 35.2/g (rank 16)
๐ฅ Rec TD allowed โ 0.5/g (rank 6)
๐ ROLE PROOF โ GB TEAM SHARE (2026)
๐ฅ Tucker Kraft โ 16.3% target share, 69.2% route rate
๐ฏ 6.1 targets/g, 4.1 rec/g, 42.4 yds/g
๐จ 21.6% red zone target share
THIS IS THE TE1 ROLE. He's matching Carolina's allowed target rate almost exactly at 6.1 a game, and with Musgrave out there's nobody pushing him at tight end.
๐ THE FILTER (2026)
๐ฅ In games with 5+ targets (CAR allows 6.0) โ 6 games, avg 47.0 receiving yards
๐ฅ In games with 3+ receptions (CAR allows 3.7) โ 6 games, avg 47.0 receiving yards
When he gets the volume this defense allows, he's at 47 yards clear of 41.5.
๐ ROUTE TREE vs CAR
๐ฅ Flat โ 23.7% of routes (MOST run) | CAR allows 15.8 yds/g (rank 27) | 30.0% tgt share, 83.3% catch, 4.3 Y/T
๐ฅ Hitch โ 17.2% | CAR allows 48.4 yds/g (rank 3) | 20.7% tgt share, 83.3% catch, 7.3 Y/T
๐ฅ Go โ 16.0% | CAR allows 42.4 yds/g (rank 4) | 14.8% tgt share, 5.8 Y/T
๐ฏ Screen โ 5.9% | 70.0% tgt share, 71.4% catch, 4.6 Y/T
The hitch is the one I want. Carolina ranks 3rd softest on it at 48.4 yards a game, and Tucker Kraft is catching 83.3% of his hitch targets. The flat is his volume route at almost a quarter of his tree.
๐ COVERAGE vs CAR
๐ฅ Cover 3 โ 47.9% of CAR's mix | Tucker Kraft 80.0% catch, 7.4 Y/T (above his 6.7 avg)
๐ฏ Zone โ 86.7% | 69.7% catch, 7.1 Y/T
Carolina lives in Cover 3, and that's where he's catching 80% of his targets at 7.4 yards a look. Neutral fit, but the catch rate against their main coverage is the edge.
๐ ALIGNMENT
๐ฅ Inline TE โ 54% of routes (MOST USED, BEST) โ 7.8 Y/T, 2.0 Y/RR, 1 TD
๐ฅ CAR at Inline TE โ 41.0 yds/g (rank 7), 79.2% catch, 8.5 Y/T
THIS IS THE OVERLAP. He lines up inline on more than half his routes, and Carolina is the 7th softest defense in football against inline tight ends.
๐ ANYTIME TD (+175)
๐ฅ CAR allows 0.5 TE TD/g (rank 6)
๐ฅ Tucker Kraft โ 21.6% red zone target share (8)
๐ฏ Priced +175
Small sprinkle on the red zone share and the TE touchdown leak.
Carolina feeds TE1 targets, Tucker Kraft is that guy at 6.1 a game. I'M DEFINITELY INTERESTED IN TUCKER KRAFT OVER 41.5 RECEIVING YARDS ๐๐ฅ
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TETAIROA MCMILLAN vs Packers Defense ๐ฆ๐ฅ
50 Likes For The Next NFL Player Spot Im On โค๏ธ
I'll be honest: Green Bay is struggling against WR1s. They're giving up 9.7 targets, 6.4 receptions and 88.4 yards a game to the role, and that grades out as a Soft Matchup at 7 of 32. Tetairoa McMillan walks into that as Carolina's clear WR1 on Thursday night.
๐ ROLE MATCHUP โ GB vs WR1 (2026)
๐ฅ Targets allowed โ 9.7/g (rank 3)
๐ฅ Receptions allowed โ 6.4/g (rank 5)
๐ฅ Rec yards allowed โ 88.4/g (rank 5)
๐ฃ YAC allowed โ 34.1/g (rank 1 โ softest in football)
๐ฏ Composite โ 7/32 Soft Matchup
THIS IS WHERE IT STARTS. Nine plus targets and almost 90 yards a game to WR1s. The Packers aren't locking down the top receiver they're feeding him.
๐ ROLE PROOF CAR TEAM SHARE (2026)
๐ฅ Tetairoa McMillan 25.6% target share
๐ฏ 9.0 targets/g, 6.0 rec/g, 85.2 yds/g
๐จ 23.3% red zone target share
He's the WR1 by share, by routes, by yards. Season average already sits at 85.2, and we're looking at him UNDER that on a 70.5.
๐ฅ In games with 9+ targets (GB allows 9.7) 3 games avg 126.3 receiving yards
๐ฏ In games with 6+ receptions (GB allows 6.4) 2 games avg 139.0 receiving yards
When the volume shows up the way Green Bay allows it, Tetairoa McMillan isn't dancing around 70.5. He's clearing it by a mile.
๐ ROUTE TREE vs GB
๐ฅ Hitch โ 21.8% of routes (MOST run) | GB allows 42.8 yds/g (rank 9) | 13.6% tgt share on the route, 83.3% catch, 13.5 Y/T
๐ฅ Go โ 15.8% | GB allows 29.0 yds/g (rank 10) | 21.9% tgt share, 10.9 Y/T
๐ฅ Out โ 14.4% | GB allows 28.7 yds/g (rank 15) | 27.6% tgt share, 75.0% catch, 9.3 Y/T
๐ฏ Slant โ 10.9% | GB allows 17.5 yds/g (rank 10) | 50.0% tgt share, 72.7% catch, 5.9 Y/T
His three main routes all sit in soft Green Bay ranks, and the hitch is the one most run, 13.5 yards a target, and GB is giving up 42.8 a game on it.
๐ COVERAGE vs GB
๐ฅ Zone โ 83.1% of GB's mix | Tetairoa McMillan 78.8% catch, 11.8 Y/T (above his 10.5 avg)
๐ฏ Cover 4 โ 27.1% | 100% catch, 14.6 Y/T on 7 targets
๐ฏ Cover 3 โ 25.0% | 76.5% catch, 10.4 Y/T on 17 targets
Green Bay lives in zone, and that's where Tetairoa McMillan is at his best almost 12 yards a target and a near 80% catch rate.
๐ ALIGNMENT
๐ฅ Wide โ 69% of routes (MOST USED, BEST) โ 11.2 Y/T, 2.8 Y/RR, 76% catch, 381 yards
๐ฏ Slot โ 31%
๐ฅ GB at Wide โ 122.8 yds/g (rank 10), 8.3 Y/T, 737 yards allowed
He lives outside, and Green Bay bleeds outside. That's the overlap. I'M DEFINITELY INTERESTED IN TETAIROA MCMILLAN RECEIVING YARDS ๐๐ฅ
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