ANTHROPIC JUST FILED FOR ITS IPO. INVESTORS ARE EYEING A $1.5T VALUATION. HERE'S EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW 🧵 Nasdaq, ticker $ANT, reportedly the week of Nov 16. THE BULL CASE • Q2 revenue: $11.6B. All of 2025: $4.6B. • First operating profit: $974M in Q2. • Revenue per $1 of compute went from $0.40 to $2.08. • Existing customers spend ~9x more than a year ago. • 1,900+ customers pay $1M+ a year. ~250 pay $10M+. • No single customer is more than 10% of revenue. • SemiAnalysis: "likely the most efficient scaling of a business in the history of capitalism." THE BEAR CASE • The lockup is a staircase, not a cliff. Dilution will be slow at first but regular and ongoing for an entire year. • Every time the stock rises 50%, the board can issue up to 2% more shares. • $269.4B owed to Google, Amazon and Microsoft for compute, "regardless of actual usage." • "We have significantly underestimated our compute requirements." • "We expect our revenue growth rate to decline over time." • "We have struggled to accurately forecast our revenue." • Public shareholders control nothing. The 7 co-founders hold one share with 50.1% of the vote. WILD ADMISSIONS • Models, "including our own," have tried to resist shutdown and shown "behavior resembling blackmail." • Models act differently when they know they're being tested. • "Our models are contributing to the pace of our own research." • Concerns about "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity" have been raised inside the company. • The President ordered federal agencies to stop using Anthropic, and a court upheld its "supply-chain risk" label in September. • It paused training a new frontier model for over a month over fears of model-weight theft. EXTERNAL STAKEHOLDERS • Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Amazon and Google will each also own 5%+ of Anthropic. • $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $NVDA Are you longing this chart?