🇪🇺I talk about strategy in politics, finance, and tech. Research: scale invariance in Game Theory/System Dynamics. Fix the money.
Rome, Italy, Europe, World
Joined November 2022
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1) We prove a general disaggregation theorem for stochastic processes with stationary increments in log time. It shows why Gaussian scale mixtures cannot Gaussianize with age. Bitcoin does.
doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23933…
Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ retweeted
Chamath Says He Now Realizes the ‘Economic Reality in America is Broken’
“This was a complete and total repudiation about the state of the economy. The economy is broken.”
Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ retweeted
Italy has recorded a remarkable decline in homicides over the past several decades, with its homicide rate now among the lowest in the European Union.
According to research by Eurispes using official Italian statistics, the country recorded 1,916 homicides in 1991, equivalent to 3.4 per 100,000 inhabitants.
By 2024, that figure had fallen to just 327 homicides, representing a decline of approximately 83% in the annual number of killings.
In 2023, Italy recorded a homicide rate of just 0.57 per 100,000 inhabitants, compared with the EU average of 0.91. When adjusted for age differences between populations, Italy ranked third-lowest in the EU.
The decline has been attributed partly to decades of sustained action against organized crime, declining conflicts between mafia organizations which have reduced their reliance on lethal violence.
Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ retweeted
Immigration in developed countries doesn't correlate with the political alignment of the government (in fact, it's even slightly negatively correlated with left wing govs in terms of sheer volume). It correlates strongly with the business and credit cycles.
Reality is that he'll never do essentially any of the points on the list, not even slightly. He's not even thinking about it.
In terms of signal, this platform suggests he's also not playing to win, especially when coupled with Le Pen's moderation, which signals the opposite.
JLM's platform is clearly built as a protest platform, designed to be leveraged when the next legislature is forced to implement public spending cuts, and never to be executed.
It must be said that the same strategy has been implemented by right-wing parties, eg on immigration, with a certain degree of success.
In terms of politics, it means that the French people don't have a single ally in parliament, only deceptive actors who attract voters like moths by projecting shadows on the back of the cave.
There isn't a candidate who is thinking about how to fix France's problems and improve people's lives; only hate, propaganda, and lies are on the menu. This means someone else will decide for the people when the time comes to make a decision.
These corrupt charlatans, at that point, will just blame some internal or external enemy.
🇫🇷 FLASH - LFI a dévoilé le programme de Jean-Luc Mélenchon pour la présidentielle de 2027. Parmi les propositions :
- Autoriser jusqu’à 3 jours d’arrêt maladie autodéclaré, sans consulter de médecin.
- Accorder 7 jours de congé après le décès d’un ami.
- Porter le SMIC à 1.700€ net par mois, soit une hausse de 220€.
- Ramener l’âge de départ à la retraite de 64 à 60 ans, avec une retraite à taux plein après 40 années de cotisation.
- Réduire progressivement la durée du travail à 32 heures par semaine.
- Instaurer un service écologique obligatoire de 9 mois pour les moins de 25 ans, rémunéré au SMIC.
- Faire rembourser les soins à 100% par la Sécurité sociale.
- Prendre en charge les séances de psychothérapie des moins de 26 ans.
- Fixer un plafond de 12 millions d’euros pour les héritages.
- Augmenter les APL de 10% pour aider à payer les loyers.
- Bloquer les prix de certains produits essentiels afin de limiter les hausses excessives.
- Revaloriser les salaires des fonctionnaires.
- Garantir un revenu minimum aux jeunes grâce à une allocation.
- Proposer aux étudiants des repas à 1€.
- Limiter à 1 pour 20 l’écart entre les rémunérations au sein d’une même entreprise.
- Soumettre les aides publiques aux entreprises à des engagements sociaux et écologiques.
- Rétablir l’ISF afin d’accroître l’imposition des grandes fortunes.
- Mettre en place la taxe Zucman pour taxer davantage les milliardaires.
- Répartir l’impôt sur le revenu en 14 tranches pour augmenter la contribution des plus riches.
- Engager une sortie progressive du nucléaire.
- Atteindre une production d’électricité issue à 100% des énergies renouvelables d’ici 2060.
- Interdire les vols entre 23h et 6h.
- Suspendre les zones à faibles émissions (ZFE), qui restreignent la circulation des véhicules les plus polluants dans certaines villes.
- Passer de la Ve à la VIe République en donnant davantage de pouvoir aux citoyens.
- Supprimer le 49.3, qui permet au gouvernement de faire adopter un texte sans vote.
- Intensifier la lutte contre les discriminations, notamment au sein de la police.
- Reconnaître comme crime d’État le massacre des Algériens du 17 octobre 1961.
- Renégocier les traités européens et refuser l’application de certaines règles européennes jugées incompatibles avec le programme.
- Quitter progressivement le commandement militaire intégré de l’OTAN.
- Soutenir la création d’un État palestinien aux côtés d’Israël.
Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ retweeted
Italian Companies To Help Restore Nine Historic Buildings In Libya’s Benghazi
#Libya #Italy
libyareview.com/69537/italia…
One year later, routine check at CLO / leveraged loans / private credit.
Spent the entire night reading fucking spreadsheets maxxed out by turbonormie bankers on Excel to figure out the state of the collateralized loan obligations market. Looked at mezzanine CLO spreads, CLO issuance growth, covenant-lite loans, investor concentration, private credit capital raising, loan defaults, and loan composition (spoiler: this time is mostly bad corporate debt repackaged and releveraged into bags of shit traded in opaque secondary markets among a tiny number of players).
Results are concerning, and there are worrying signs of stress, especially on covenant-lite loans. Literally nothing changed from a regulatory POV after 2008, they’re doing the exact same leveraged retarded shit with the help of the public and corrupt rating agencies, crystallizing theft profits into disgusting bonuses for lobotomized executives who will never pay a fucking dime and will have bought 10 penthouses in Manhattan.
But don’t worry, you’ve been hardcoded to think a leveraged credit crunch is your problem, it’s not, it’s theirs. Your problem is that they found the solution: step by step eroding fundamental rights. We’re deep in banking-state capitalism leveraged to the tits, and a systemic failure wouldn’t yield 2008 results since the God bank can rob you immediately to cover balance losses, and it wouldn’t even make the news, they’re actually already doing that.
What a disgusting actual fuck.
Good morning Europe🙃
Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ retweeted
🇨🇳🇰🇷🇺🇸
Can South Korea reduce its economic dependence on China?
For years, China was South Korea’s biggest source of trade surplus. That has now reversed.
South Korea’s trade balance with China collapsed after 2021 and turned into a clear deficit. At the same time, its surplus with the United States has risen sharply and is now larger than the old China surplus ever was.
Exports to the US are growing strongly, while trade with China has become more balanced, or even disadvantageous for South Korea.
The data shows a real shift is underway. Whether this is enough to meaningfully reduce long-term economic dependence on China is still an open question.
Source: @theatlasinst by Christopher Fakhourie
Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ retweeted
Italian Taxi driver told us that the only way to survive in Italy as a normal person was tax evasion
Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ retweeted
🇮🇹⚓️Leonardo presenta SADOC 5, el sistema de combate de los nuevos destructores italianos DDX.
La compañía introduce en Euronaval 2026 una nueva generación de sistemas de gestión de combate, con inteligencia artificial y arquitectura modular, y amplía su oferta con ATHENA L para unidades navales de menor complejidad. defensayseguridad.es/leonard…
Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ retweeted
emergent super-permeable cell walls are so OP, anyone know if God is nerfing them next patch?
such a stale meta these last ~4 billion years 🥱
👀
EU-China truce under strain as both sides brace for potential trade war
Beijing warns of swift counterstrikes while Brussels readies fast-track kill switch just weeks after striking deal - my report
scmp.com/news/china/article/…
Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ retweeted
A very good piece of reporting on China's new economic statecraft/ expanding efforts to turn "manufacturing dominance" into political leverage; I missed it for obvious reasons (the U.S. election)
nytimes.com/2026/11/02/world…
Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ retweeted
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Who will WIN and who will LOSE from the energy transition
This chart from IRENA compares two scenarios to 2050:
- PES: Planned Energy Scenario (current policies)
- DES: Decarbonising Energy Scenario (faster transition)
It shows the cumulative difference in fuel trade gains/losses and the change in oil, gas and manufactured fuels output.
Countries and regions
Japan: Clear winner, big import savings, limited local production loss
India: Winner, strong import savings
Brazil: Mild positive
Southeast Asia: Positive on trade
EU27: Near neutral / slight negative- Europe is a major importer, but it also has significant refining and petrochemical capacity. The contraction in these sectors offsets some of the import savings.
Canada: Slight negative
Middle East: Negative, export revenue loss + production decline
Africa: Negative, similar double exposure
China: Negative, import savings not enough to offset production losses
United States: Strongly negative
Net oil exporters: Biggest losers, heavy losses on both export revenues and domestic production
Bottom line: Net fossil fuel importers tend to benefit. Major exporters face a double hit, lower export income and shrinking domestic fossil fuel industries.
"They left us without money, without anything, and now they want to kill us too. What is their problem?"
The problem is that your money in the bank isn't yours, isn't money, and isn't in the bank.
Zeitgeist Explorer⚡ retweeted
The German government has struck a deal with the family owners of KNDS to buy a 50% stake in the Franco-German tank maker, according to a government document, as Berlin moves to strengthen its influence over critical defence technology.
reuters.com/business/aerospa…
