Keeping it halal and sharing my research. Subscribe on Substack below for Discord access.
Joined June 2025
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To show you guys how I think through my swings, I wrote a FREE post recapping the incredibly successful trading week last week. Link in first reply.
I go through the thought process of every trade and here are the numbers -
$MU: 5%
$DELL rounds 1&2: 8%
$MU round 2: 12%
$PENG: 8%
$META: 6%
$GOOGL, $LLY, $ISRG: 2-3% each
If you’re wondering why Dario is fear mongering all the time.
It’s an act.
Altman, Hassabis, and Amodei are the ones doing massive corporate lobbying at the moment.
They are the ones who are attempting to perform a regulatory capture of the AI industry.
You, Geoff, and Yoshua are giving ammunition to those who are lobbying for a ban on open AI R&D.
If your fear-mongering campaigns succeed, they will *inevitably* result in what you and I would identify as a catastrophe: a small number of companies will control AI.
The vast majority of our academic colleagues are massively in favor of open AI R&D. Very few believe in the doomsday scenarios you have promoted.
You, Yoshua, Geoff, and Stuart are the singular-but-vocal exceptions.
like many, I very much support open AI platforms because I believe in a combination of forces: people's creativity, democracy, market forces, and product regulations.
I also know that producing AI systems that are safe and under our control is possible. I've made concrete proposals to that effect.
This will all drive people to do the Right Thing.
You write as if AI is just happening, as if it were some natural phenomenon beyond our control.
But it's not. It's making progress because of individual people that you and I know. We, and they, have agency in building the Right Things.
Asking for regulation of R&D (as opposed to product deployment) implicitly assumes that these people and the organization they work for are incompetent, reckless, self-destructive, or evil. They are not.
I have made lots of arguments that the doomsday scenarios you are so afraid of are preposterous. I'm not going to repeat them here. But the main point is that if powerful AI systems are driven by objectives (which include guardrails) they will be safe and controllable because *e* set those guardrails and objectives.
(Current Auto-Regressive LLMs are not driven by objectives, so let's not extrapolate from their current weaknesses).
Now about open source: your campaign is going to have the exact opposite effect of what you seek.
In a future where AI systems are poised to constitute the repository of all human knowledge and culture, we *need* the platforms to be open source and freely available so that everyone can contribute to them.
Openness is the only way to make AI platforms reflect the entirety of human knowledge and culture.
This requires that contributions to those platforms be crowd-sourced, a bit like Wikipedia.
That won't work unless the platforms are open.
The alternative, which will *inevitably* happen if open source AI is regulated out of existence, is that a small number of companies from the West Coast of the US and China will control AI platform and hence control people's entire digital diet.
What does that mean for democracy?
What does that mean for cultural diversity?
*THIS* is what keeps me up at night.
This’ll increase inflation but also usher in a new era of trade companies in the US.
Good opportunity for small business entrepreneurs.
This quoted post is unavailable.
Wallahi, when I’m down, only Quran is able to heal me.
I see it time and again - not family, friends or anything else can provide me comfort.
The biggest mercy from Allah is the Quran. I would be a mess without it. Alhamdulillah.
Perhaps the Israel lobby that bribes our politicians and drains billions of tax dollars to fund a genocide and welfare in their country while there isn’t even free healthcare here are the true enemies.
Thinking is hard sometimes.
I used to love and admire Elon, but over the past 2 years realized that you can be a genius but an awful human being.
Just the way he flipped his views on Trump tells me he’ll sell out for money and power and cannot be trusted.
Voters are crossing party lines to vote for policies they care about. Thats how America comes back InshaAllah.
There are some pathetic people on X that only look at negatives and vomit their toxicity in comments.
I decide to ignore them as they’re just a loud minority.
“Perish in your hatred”
Americans should be grateful to the people of Gaza as they exposed the corruption within our country and made it easy to identify candidates with morals and ethics.
We saw how Americans embraced pro Palestine candidates because they also happen to be America-first.
$TSM was one of only semis to reclaim the March lows. Thats the flight to safety with semis - probably the only name with no real competition.
Halal Investor retweeted
I just can’t imagine how demented your soul has to be to gleefully take someone’s home like that and just continue on living like it’s all normal
Halal Investor retweeted
Last night was one of the worst nights Gaza has seen. The bombs have never stopped raining down on them, and when the actual rain fell upon them, their tents flooded. So many missing limbs, all missing loved ones, most without homes. And the world just pretended it stopped. I didn’t even post an image with people this time because they’re sick of showing us images of themselves in desperation without action on our part. A reminder to you and me to not forget them because they’re no longer in your feed.
Semis have more overhangs than catalysts -
$NVDA - Jensen will be interrogated by the gov the day AFTER earnings. So forget the pump leading up to it.
$MU - rumors that TSM is getting into memory. Reality is that’ll take 4 years to materialize, if ever, but can’t fight the narrative.
2027 being CapEx peak - so any capacity added afterwards will reduce margins for semis. This is why every semi is being rerated massively.
Markets look 2 years out and we really don’t know how the macro is going to be. So players have been cashing in their 4x returns from SMH past two years.
Do yourself a favor and block everyone pumping their bags in this downturn.
Also block the degen all-in accounts.
Clean up your timeline and add a few contrarian voices.
Hynix chairman had to liquidate his Hynix stake for a divorce settlement.
Seems Jensen will follow soon.
Halal Investor retweeted
AAOI's $45 today is NOT January's $45. Not even close 🧐
They diluted about 50% this year so their shares went from 60 million to 90 million. That's like ripping each of your $100 bills invested in half and handing you $50 back.
Add Amazon warrants, RSUs and PSUs, convertibles, and it gets even worse.
So January's $45 is more like $30 today or high $20's once fully diluted. Yes, that's how that works.
And the old $235 per share peak where we saw $2.7 Billion market cap turns into $160 now which means you don't have all that upside either anymore.
Just wanted to clear that out in case anyone is just looking at $AAOI chart and thinking it's at the same level.
👀
Somehow there have only been 6 events in SPX history (since 1957) where SPX was down at least -4% one day, then followed it up with a positive day that was *less* than +1.0%.
Today could be #7.
But you only care about two things:
[1/3]
$PSIX Q3 results and recent power sector thoughts:
The company delivered an exceptional Q3 clean “beat and raise” by any measure — even better than the record Q2 2025, when the stock peaked at over $100, with a much better story today. Yet the stock trades at a fraction of the valuation, Why?
Long-term followers know we turned constructive on $PSIX only recently after an extensive amount of fundamental work and have not been afraid to be critical in the past. It was a meaningful position heading into the print. Given broader sector risks, we also held several related short positions as a factor hedge.
However, after analysing $ANT S1 filings and election results, we think the narrative has shifted materially over the past week and when the facts change, it’s always important to reassess one’s central beliefs and have opted to close the majority of the long positions in $PSIX (retaining an OTM call option), while keeping all the shorts.
The high level math: ~30 GW of behind-the-meter power capacity is scheduled to become available in 2027, scaling to >100 GW by 2030 if the dozen suppliers deliver on announced expansions (many won’t). Absent major changes in U.S. politics or AI model diffusion rates to support far higher collective monetisation rates across the entire industry, rapid buildout of new data centres on American soil can neither be justified economically, nor politically, a view held by the credit markets for some time, but only just beginning to be priced in by equity investors. The behind the meter power industry risks moving quickly into excess in such a scenario, with incremental suppliers at especially high risk.
$PSIX has been one of the top-performing behind-the-meter power plays we track since our recent full note. Its unfortunate market conditions changed so quickly, substantially reducing the probability of developing into the multi-bagger we envisioned.
Congrats to everyone who made money in this sector the past few months, it certainly hasn’t been easy (especially on the long side!) — and have a great weekend!
DMs always open for those wanting to discuss further.
