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Joined December 2012
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Simon Manning retweeted
2/2
It is interesting – and a very good sign – that even free-trade advocates like Lamy now recognize that comparative advantage is not the same as competitive advantage, and that the latter actually distorts the logic of the former.
michaelpettis858496.substack…
The trade deficit will be paid, with debt or with higher unemployment or with both. Higher per capita productivity is the only good alternative. The other is a GDP recession.
Simon Manning retweeted
Programmed Aging Theory Defeats Damage Accumulation Theory of Aging aging.biluhuang.hk/research/…
Simon Manning retweeted
i was told maybe like. there months ago. that internal models have never been so far ahead of public releases.
i personally think this has less to do with safety and more to do with competition (rsi)
either way it’s a truly horrendous situation for the underclass as those sand rich oligarchs are building a lasting advantage over you. please don’t kid yourself that you won’t be in the underclass because unless you’re using these models of the future now — you are doomed.
i’ve used some of these models and they’re easily five months ahead of opus 5.5. just think about the jump you would expect to see of the models almost half a year away. that’s the competition.
there needs to be more scrutiny on these labs holding back this level of intelligence. if not for personal use then for areas like healthcare etc. we must act my valiant brothers.
Simon Manning retweeted
This is f*cking insane. Elon Musk says Grok 5 could reach AGI:
"Grok 5 will be the smartest AI in the world by a significant margin on every metric without exception"
Then he dropped the number that matters:
"I calculate like 10%. That's what my biological neural network comes up with"
He's never put AGI above zero before.
Training already started. Release sometime in Q1.
So what changed? Size and senses.
Grok 5 is a 6 trillion parameter model
Grok 3 and 4 run on 3 trillion
Text, images, video and audio in one model. It builds its own tools to answer you
His bar for AGI: understanding real-time video like a human does
And there's secret sauce he wouldn't share on stage:
"It's really going to feel sentient"
5 minutes. Elon walks through what xAI is training right now and why this one is different
Bookmark and watch it today
Then read the article below ↓
Simon Manning retweeted
SpaceX’s Arizona data center, per a county supervisor: “We could be reducing property taxes across the board in Cochise County, the entire county, by 20%”
Frank Antenori, whose district includes the site, brought up the county’s tax math during a live Q&A:
“Here’s just something to just chew on. Arizona has an expenditure limit requirement that is placed on counties. If we exceed that expenditure, we have to rebate back to the taxpayers a certain amount.”
“So, if we’re receiving revenue in from SpaceX, by law, we have to offset that to the taxpayers. We have the potential to reduce, based on the projected revenue they’re creating, as much as 20%.”
“Let me just say it again. We could be reducing property taxes across the board in Cochise County, the entire county, by 20% to offset for the revenue here, because we can’t spend all that money. So, we have to give that money back to the taxpayers. The law says we have to.”
“So, you could see a potential significant impact to local property taxes. What that is, I don’t know. We’re going to have to do the math on it. But the law, if we have this large increase in property tax revenue, we have to balance those rates. So that will reduce dramatically the property tax burden of every resident in the county.”
“The construction sales tax, which also is the TPT, the transaction privilege tax, the retail tax, and the jail excise tax. So that will be part of the construction tax. We could literally use that money to pay the jail off in 2 to 3 years, as opposed to the 13 to 20 years.”
“So this could be a revenue to eliminate the half-cent sales tax in 2 to 3 years. We can get rid of that half-cent sales tax.”
Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa: "We can have a strong working relationship with Elon Musk and his companies, but it has to be on our terms"
Jake Tapper asked her about blocking the sale of a Texas state park to SpaceX, and whether Musk might leave the state over it. Her answer:
“Well, look, as I said before, we have to have balance. These are our beaches we’re talking about. I mean, selling our beach to Elon Musk is just something that is almost unimaginable. It’s unacceptable. Our beaches are enshrined in our Texas Constitution as being free and open to the people of Texas because they are our beaches."
"We can have a strong working relationship with Elon Musk and his companies, but it has to be on our terms. It cannot be just running over the people of Texas. And that’s what changes now that I will be governor.”
Simon Manning retweeted
Elon Musk says the lack of popularity for data centers is temporary because of the prosperity that is brought by them:
"The lack of popularity is where there aren't data centers and they think a data center will have a bad effect. Memphis is booming because of @SpaceX. The restaurants are full, the hotels are full, we're paying twice the prevailing wage people were earning before. We've also helped local schools. And the tax revenue the county and city are earnings is tremendous. I think this popularity thing is a temporary concern because there actually is tremendous prosperity that is brought by the data centers. Talk to the people in town and they feel it because their businesses are booming."
(via 33rd Annual Baron Investment Conference today in NYC)
Simon Manning retweeted
Pulling massive power cables is a great workout and far more productive than lifting weights 🏋️♀️
Elon Musk in new interview on @SpaceXSI's data center site in Memphis:
"I insist on doing some of the work myself manually. I've pulled power cables the size of an anaconda. I've done the fiber optic cabling; I try to do at least a little bit of everything so I'm not numb to the pain of the people who are actually doing it. It's not as though I'm sitting in an office and someone has to come to me. I'm walking the floor asking them questions actively."
(via 33rd Annual Baron Investment Conference today in NYC)
Simon Manning retweeted
I actually feel bad for Elon, even though I deeply disagree with him on some things.
Imagine trying to build a car company in California in the mid-2000s, when American manufacturing is being completely offshored and almost all of Wall Street thinks you’re a joke and is rooting for your failure, while the entire oil and gas industry is using all their power and leverage to make you fail.
But against all odds, you actually pull it off. You build cars that make electric vehicles desirable to millions of people, create an enormous number of quality American jobs, and force the global car industry to play catch up and move away from oil and gas.
You would think California would be proud of you and the team. Instead you find yourself having to fight a completely corrupt and incompetent left government impeding all your efforts while you sleep at the factory night after night to avoid collapse. At some point, you would go to the right too.
And because of your politics, it becomes a justification for people to celebrate your companies failing in their personal ideological fight with you. Even threats against you become something people explain away and use mental gymnastics to justify.
Meanwhile, people like Scott Galloway and Bernie Sanders who have made absolutely nobody better off other than themselves get to lecture you about your value to society and even call for your murder without grounds from their vacation home while you're on 20 hour benders in your factories trying to get things built for all of society. If this were me I would lose my mind.
Criticize his opinions. I do sometimes, especially on Ukraine. But the pleasure people take in wanting to destroy everything he’s built is hideous and frankly suicidal for the masses, especially coming from people who insist they care about workers, the climate, and civilization as a whole.
As you try to make good things for society you are confronted with a world that worships people who care only about the perception of being good people, while they actually fight against your tangible efforts of making improvements for humanity.
I don't think almost anyone would have made it out of that and if they did, they would probably not come away feeling so warm towards the left either. So I am rooting for Elon to succeed, and for humanity.
