Roger retweeted
BREAKING: Trump convenes national security council to figure out why the most powerful CEO in the world can't stop cheating
"Why are rich, successful men suddenly going out and trying to have sex with lots of women?"
"These rich celebrities have perfectly good wives at home. Why would they even think of sex with others? I want answers!"
Roger retweeted
In Telford, 1000+ underage children were held in a "Rape House" where they were gang-raped, tortured, and abused by Muslim men.
Despite hundreds being identified and 67 being arrested, only 7 were convicted. Russell Brand received a longer sentence than all but two of them.
Roger retweeted
Everyone saying “Oh Jensen got got. Jensen fell for the honeypot”
Ever consider he knew the whole time? That actually HE was honeydicking China and feeding them false intel?
It’s a new Cold War. There’s levels to this. Don’t jump to conclusions. Don’t rule out a honeydick
Roger retweeted
If you listen carefully it’s a misplaced anger at his own parents for not making him feel worthy that turned into raging jealousy of other children who had parents that lifted them up and poured into them. He’s projected all of that onto white people. He needs to mend his heart before thinking about running for any office. White ppl haven’t hurt him. He knows exactly who did. Notice how he doesn’t get the satisfaction he was craving when the interviewer simply anchors himself & doesn’t validate that experience. We should all do more of this. Don’t validate anyone’s experience for the sake of temporary bonding.
Roger retweeted
It is comically dark outside at 7am. Now imagine its 830am and its pitch black
That is what Trump, the Florida mafia, and boomer degenerate golfing retirees want for the hard working people of this country with permanent DST
Roger retweeted
I'm not even going to attempt any nuance here: I despise this person possibly even more than I despise Trump. They both dish out huge sloppy servings of cringe whenever they open their mouths. Harris might not be as corrupt and boorish as Trump, but her mediocrity is unbearable.
Roger retweeted
Being a dad is just telling yourself “it’s been an expensive month, we’ll get back on track next month” over and over again until you die
Roger retweeted
Great analysis by a high IQ person in the industry.
AI Boom or Bust? – Manifold #122
Are we in an AI bubble?
Analysis of AI CapEx, revenues, OAI+ANT burn rates.
AI revenue has to reach $ TRILLIONS per annum within the next few years (an increase of > 10x; compare total global software revenue of $1.5T today), or else the current CapEx spend will turn out to be a huge misallocation.
Separately, even if total AI revenue reaches these levels, OAI and ANT could still be overvalued due to revenue/margin compression from competition with other US or Chinese labs.
Chapters:
(00:00) - Conference Takeaways
(03:21) - AI Capability Leap
(07:36) - Both Things True
(08:46) - CapEx Debt Risks
(10:31) - Trillion Revenue Hurdle
(18:32) - Spend Plateau Signals
(31:45) - IPO and Bubble Fallout
Roger retweeted
Good Will Hunting GPU Edition
Ep. 2: My Boy's Wicked Smaht
Ben Affleck reveals he writes Python, understands convolutional neural networks, worked extensively with GPUs, and used his celebrity status to get private looks at Google and OpenAI’s video models
“I’ve always been kind of into computers since I was young. Then, when film started to move from analog film to digital, I became more interested in that aspect of it. The visual-effects workflow for many years has included machine learning, so I can write pretty shitty Python scripts and stuff like that.
“With convolutional neural networks, which were the precursors to what the transformer can do, which is much more computation simultaneously, you would do things like look at what’s called a tensor. That’s the numerical translation of a visual image in numbers, like the batch number, the frame number and the red, green and blue values of each pixel in each frame. It’s just that simple. That numeric is called a tensor.
“You’d use a convolutional neural network to identify patterns that reveal what’s called edge detection or feature extraction, which is identifying patterns well enough to know, this is where the window ledge is, so we can more easily take the green-screen image out and replace it with something.
“That was familiar to me early on because, prior to Artists Equity, I had a small visual-effects company. I’ve worked with GPUs a lot too. The visual-effects guys said, ‘Hey, you should see. There are a couple: Google and this other company, OpenAI, are doing really interesting stuff with transformers in video.’
“I’ve learned that I can actually just call up and go, ‘Hey, it’s Ben Affleck. Can I come see what you’re doing?’ Sometimes people say yes, to my astonishment.”
Roger retweeted
🚨BREAKING: Jensen Huang just EXPOSED Dario and Altman’s "Rogue AI" grift to avoid getting sued into oblivion under EXISTING law
“Don't let this doomsday narrative cause somebody to relieve them of the laws that currently exist.
Go and read between the lines. They're actually not asking for more laws; they're asking to be relieved of the laws we do have.”
ABSOLUTE TRUTH NUKE
Roger retweeted
Another great point from @jason. The large closed model corporations have publically admitted their products are defective & can be used to hack/cause cyber crimes. They should 1) fix these issues, & 2) disclose these large (seemingly likely) liabilities in their S-1.
The frontier model companies are responsible for how their products perform in the real world, and their customers are responsible for how they use them.
If a user of Claude runs a cyberattack — especially one at scale — both the customer and the platform will be sued.
This should be enough of an incentive to force these companies (let’s stop calling them labs) to produce safe products AND monitor for unsafe use (i.e. ie hacking).
These frontier models have the option to lock them down… they can require a driver's license, Social Security number/tax ID, biometrics, etc., to use the latest models if they’re so dangerous—just like buying a gun or driving a car. They can monitor the logs of the latest models, too.
Or they can provide anonymous access to their open-source models…there are plenty of safeguards that I don’t hear any of them talk about—which is odd.
Roger retweeted
Babe, wake up…
Sacks is destroying the fake altruistic nerds.
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.