آمریکایی فارسیدوست 🇺🇸
St Louis, MO
Joined July 2010
- Tweets247
- Following730
- Followers23.3K
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Andrew Fogle retweeted
Trump in 2020:
"We've spent $8 trillion in the Middle East, and we're not fixing our roads in this country? How stupid. How stupid is it? And we're not fixing our tunnels, our bridges, our roads, our hospitals, our schools? It's crazy."
Abdul El-Sayed literally just repeated the gist of the claim that got him in hot water this week:
“It shouldn't be this hard to pay taxes and know that that money's gonna be spent on you and your kids, instead of dropping bombs on somebody else and their kids.”
That is the essence of the highly controversial ad that caused Haley Stevens to break with him and sparked condemnation from Jewish leaders across America.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
Americans seem to float in a space outside of history. No past or future. They do not ‘dwell’ in a place in the Scrutonian sense, but simply exist. These eternal forces still remain, however, and impact their lives quite powerfully but it leaves them with nothing but confusion.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
Tucker is being fed this idea in order to intimidate Iran. A better way of thinking about this is to consider it yet another instance of the nuclear threats that the US have made this year against Iran to no discernible effect.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
“Lobby” just means two different things. The Gulf Lobby is a “lobby” like Big Pharma, an outside interest pumping in money. The Israel Lobby is a “lobby” like the 1950s China Lobby, an ideological faction inside the system.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
This interview clip is worth watching.
In my opinion, Iran is falling into a trap again, albeit a more sophisticated one.
Rezaei acknowledges the trap, but nonetheless they’re playing along.
Trump has no political capital to deliver anything to Iran. Even releasing the frozen assets at this point will be a political liability for Republicans, let alone any other meaningful and durable concessions. Republicans are so damaged at this point that there’s nothing they can sacrifice for Trump, and Trump will have nothing to offer them after the elections. He’s a spent force.
He needs to generate some positive headlines before Tuesday, to minimize the bloodbath in the midterms. Anything positive could affect close races.
Nonetheless, Iran has been negotiating, giving him the headlines he needs. The only positive move was Rezaei’s tweet, requiring the implementation of Iran’s seven preconditions.
But Trump can announce acceptance on Monday, get his headlines for Tuesday, and renege on Wednesday. He already did this with the MoU. Voters will only care about the headline.
The only correct response would have been: “Call us after the elections. We have nothing to say at this point.”
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, on IRIB Khabar TV, Oct 31, on why this does not end quietly: "if Trump's America is not punished here, tomorrow every other country will say, let's attack Iran."
The doctrine he draws from it: "Our most important deterrence, in fact, is that we settle the matter right here -- that this war ends in such a way that no one ever again dares to attack Iran."
Asked whether Iran has something in its hands, he said it does: "Now, if war starts, we will "sanction" America's horns -- and then we'll see what this hornless bull wants to do in the world, and whether it can defend itself at all."
The evidence he offered for it: "We tested our anti-ship missiles right over the USS George Washington."
Andrew Fogle retweeted
Mamdani went undercover at the New York City marathon passing out water and congratulating runners on the route.
This may seem harmless but it is actually an extension of the practices of the fifth leader of the Abbasid caliphate Harun al-Rashid (786–809 CE) who would go into the city in disguise in order to assess the unguarded sentiments of his subjects.
#Mamdanistan
Andrew Fogle retweeted
I've made the point before and it bears repetition. Literally every Muslim national elected official in the US - and indeed the UK - is pro-gay marriage. The much ridiculed "Gays for Gaza" is running the show in Anglo-American Muslim politics, not conservative Islam.
The craziest thing about Republican shariah hysteria is that it is lefty Dems who are doing the most to neutralize any possibility of political Islam by shifting "Muslim" to a vague ethnic signifier without religious content. The Democratic machine works to cultivate Mamdanis and Omars as brown Methodists who fly Palestinian and Pride flags side by side. If you know where to look you see that actual Islamists are far more aggrieved by this than the theatrics of red state legislatures.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
Nuclear is not a joker. There are some things it can do. Others it cannot. This is a very hard problem.
Yield won’t do it. The weapon needs to penetrate the rock first and then detonate. A 300kt (10X Hiroshima) detonated 3m into the rock may or may not generate enough seismic force to destroy the facilities buried more than 100m underneath.
It really depends on the specific geology of that particular rock formation. Even with a full geological work up, you still couldn’t be sure of destroying it.
What you could be sure about is that the fallout and radiation would be massive, precisely because the weapon must detonate close to the surface.
In terms of disabling usage of the site, the MOP (GBU-57) may be just as effective, with none of the nuclear and geopolitical fallout; above all, the nuclear destruction that is certain to follow in Ukraine.
There is no case for nuking Pickaxe. This is just a bullshit plant to intimidate the Iranians.
… yeah, pretty much.
Pickaxe is buried under like 100m of granite, and given its sheer size, it’s entirely unclear if GBU-57s would accomplish much of anything.
It’s also not like Fordow with its obvious cooling vents, Pickaxe has maybe one obvious weak-point (3rd image), and that appears to have been plugged with concrete.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
El-Sayed gestures toward Medicare for All but is by all indications a center-left Democrat in the Obama mold: a self-described capitalist who seems to entirely eschew 2010s identity politics. And his *foreign policy* positions are almost more paleocon than postcolonial left!
Andrew Fogle retweeted
1) It’s actually not clear that even a low-yield nuclear weapon could do it.
2) Tucker is not a reliable source for these things, please don’t listen to him. Trump will not use a nuclear weapon in Iran.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
Wow! It's amazing what the rational, self-interested, and successful imperialist imperative to keep oil flowing uninterrupted with ease from West Asia can compel Haley Stevens to do
Andrew Fogle retweeted
This is career suicide for Stevens. What she’s actually done is put the interests of a foreign country over what’s good for her own country.
This quoted post is unavailable.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
In which a senior FDD expert cryptically admits that all of the Iran policy recommendations the organization has promoted have failed abysmally.
Bookmark it, because you don’t see this very often.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
The church where Haley Stevens and Mike Rogers campaigned this morning is operated by a megachurcher mostly known for starring in a Tyler Perry show and shaming a congregant for not giving enough cash. Feels like if this was fiction we'd think it was too on the nose.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
این خانم دموکرات، رقیب ابدول از میشیگان بود، اما رسماً از راجرز، نامزد جمهوریخواه، حمایت کرد. دلیلش؟ اسرائیل. کاری ندارم چی درسته یا نه، اما وقتی جیرهخوار یک نهاد یا جریان باشی، آخرش مجبور میشوی برخلاف تمام باورهایت عمل کنی، چون دیگر تصمیمگیرنده نیستی. فقط یک مترسکی.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
Call me delusional, but I actually think this is going to backfire and help rally Michigan Democrats who were lukewarm on Abdul — batshit insane echo chamber genocide cheerleaders, like her husband-to-be, notwithstanding— to his side in the closing days.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
Mehmet [[[Öz]]] getting Fetterman elected, Cenk [[[Uygur]]] and Hasan [[[Piker]]] versus Jason [[[Turkish]]] in Michigan…we need to talk about [[[Turkish diaspora]]] influence
Andrew Fogle retweeted
I think all the people screaming about Western cultural influence or turning this into some act of political protest are completely misunderstanding some basic things about human nature:
- Dressing up in costumes is fun. And you have a huge range of creative expression which makes it funner.
- The whole spooky scary theme fits in well with contemporary Iranian pop culture.
- Both of these make it super visual and prone to go very viral on social media. Which attracts even more people to participate
More important than any of this:
- Walking around at night in funny costumes at night gives you an excellent excuse to talk with and flirt with girls/guys
Therefore, putting it all together, you can scold people until the cows come home but it's going to be increasingly popular. And there's no deeper philosophical or political message beyond "young people enjoy having fun"
This year, similar to previous years, there are lots of videos on social media relating to young people in Iran celebrating Halloween.
Lots of cafes and restaurants are doing Halloween themed events (and some later issuing clarifications that in accordance to Iranian law they will no longer do it ... but mysteriously have fake spider webs all on their walls).
A huge number of advertisements with people wearing ghost and vampire costumes.
And for the last week there's lots of private Halloween parties & a bunch of people who are just wearing costumes and walking around in the streets. Including young girls publicly wearing very revealing clothing, similar to their West.
This has been going on for a while now. Though a few years ago it was more in big cities like Tehran & Isfahan and now I increasingly see it spreading to very small cities too.
Like everything else there is a counter reaction to this and cultural conservatives angrily making videos against this & meta commentary about "oh why aren't you celebrating authentic Iranian culture instead" and all the normal things.
And yes some businesses and pages getting shut down. I haven't heard of anyone getting actually arrested, but its within the realm of possibility.
All of these are a pretty weak reaction though. And the trend of which way things are going is pretty clear.