Roger L. Hale Fellow @plough_shares | Alum @AU_SIS & @ucberkeley (go 🐻s) | Nukes & strategic history | Views mine
Washington, D.C.
Joined October 2018
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Scott Strgacich retweeted
Massive constitutional crisis brewing over Netanyahu’s refusal to accept the election results and his use of the Shin Bet for political purposes.
Shin Bet Chief Zini (Netanyahu appointee) is demanding to question Arab party leaders in the foreign election funding case.
Attorney-General Baharav-Miara just put out a statement that citizens, especially elected MKs, can only be questioned if there’s supporting evidence and Zini has prevented the Shin Bet from passing any evidence to her or the police for two days now.
Eisenkot: “Likud and Netanyahu are trying to commit a pogrom of the democracy and the rule of law”
Scott Strgacich retweeted
NEW @nytimes: Trump and Rubio are trying to negotiate an agreement with Venezuela that would lay the foundation for a potential U.S. military presence there. It could open a remarkable and perhaps risky new stage in US relations with Venezuela, which the US attacked this year.
Scott Strgacich retweeted
Pakistan has successfully conducted flight test of first indigenously developed & designed Fa’az air- to-air missile ⚡ 🚀 🇵🇰
The missile was fired from JF-17 Thunder.
Scott Strgacich retweeted
Israel has shared intelligence with the United States asserting that Iran is considering the use of chemical weapons against its adversaries, according to U.S. and regional officials. -NYT
nytimes.com/2026/11/03/world…
Scott Strgacich retweeted
NEW: Pentagon policy chief Bridge Colby, acquisition head Michael Duffey and NATO policy director Will Cappelletti are in Poland today for new "Bergen" group meeting w/ Germany, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Netherlands to talk increasing weapons production in NATO.
Scott Strgacich retweeted
Qalibaf: Iran's position has been sent to the US, the ball is now in the US court, and any attack will trigger a severe retaliation.
Scott Strgacich retweeted
A second surge of at least six US Air Force C-17A Globemaster IIIs carrying air defenses from Fort Bliss, TX to Israel is underway. This movement appears connected to the earlier movement, indicating a full Patriot battery is being deployed rather than a minimum engagement package (MEP).
#USAF United States Air Force
Operation Epic Fury
3 November - 1100z
Movements from Biggs Army Airfield / Fort Bliss are continuing. A second group of C-17s that began positioning to Biggs are now also en route to Ovda Air Base in Israel, which should bring the total to sixteen once this group is complete.
Additionally, we have a flight from Pope Army Airfield to Ali Al Salem Air Base.
In the opposite direction, two C-17s have flown from Ali Al Salem Air Base to Davis-Monthan Air Force Base.
@MATA_osint @DefenceGeek @sipjack1776 @TheIntelFrog @Andyyyyrrrr @vcdgf555 @sentdefender @Osinttechnical @Faytuks @Andyyyyrrrr
Scott Strgacich retweeted
The IRGC fired a missile from Qeshm island at a U.S. aircraft in the strait of Hormuz on monday night. The U.S. fighter jet then eliminated the surface-to-air launcher in self defense, a U.S. official said
Scott Strgacich retweeted
A stark warning from the UAE's state oil giant: Sultan Al Jaber says the Iran war has drained ~1 billion barrels from global reserves, driven shipping costs from under 5% to over 30% per barrel, and pushed diesel stocks in some markets to historic lows.
thenationalnews.com/business…
Scott Strgacich retweeted
The US military lost 85 aircraft and had another 26 damaged in the first seven months of the Iran War.
An itemized accounting:
ALT Over 110 US military aircraft lost or damaged in first 7 months of Iran War. Estimated 85 aircraft lost and 26 damaged between February 28 and September 27, 2026. Estimated cost of 85 lost aircraft: $4.1 billion. Prewar MQ-9 inventory per USAF: 189; May 12 inventory per US Air Force Gen. David Tabor’s Senate testimony: 135. Quantities based on official statements, open-source intelligence, and media reports. Replacement costs based on FY2027 recurring flyaway unit costs. Repair costs not estimated due to insufficient information. Estimates, where necessary, are conservative. AB = air base. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
Scott Strgacich retweeted
In my view, these are the most likely scenarios to happen in order of likelihood:
1 - Current negotiations do progress to the point there are direct Iran-US talks with Vance. However in the long run this fizzles out and we get a resumption of no war, no peace
2 - Fullscale war breaks out but not at the level of powerplants and infrastructure. Trump hits the nuclear sites including Koohe Kolang
3 - Negotiations progress to direct Iran-US talks. There are lots of ups and downs but the talks do end with an agreement. The war is over, but Iran-US relations are still adversarial.
4 - Fullscale war breaks out including all out infrastructure war. Iran hits back hard across the region. Extreme impacts on the global economy.
Scott Strgacich retweeted
Numerous witness accounts from @Vahid of explosions in Qeshm, southern Iran.
"the number of explosions was terrible right now in Qeshm"
Scott Strgacich retweeted
This is, perhaps, the single most bullish graphic for Senate Democrats that I can find. Forget the maps, the microdetails of who leads what averages, etc.
Polls have been good in midterms, but even if there is a polling error exceeding 2024's, the chamber is *still* a tossup.
Scott Strgacich retweeted
Former USS Enterprise (CVN 65) Enterprise-class aircraft carrier finally being towed out of Newport News, Virginia for dismantling in Mobile, Alabama - many more pictures to come - November 2, 2026 SRC: FB- Hampton Roads & Chesapeake Bay Ship Watchers / Brian M. Lockwood 📸
Scott Strgacich retweeted
"Active-duty troops are telling us that politicization is pushing them toward the exit. That's not a talking point; it's a readiness crisis." military.com/79-of-veterans-…
Scott Strgacich retweeted
If you find yourself engaging with Tucker Carlson’s tweet by posting something along the lines of “if true…” I urge you to:
1. Stop
2. Delete the draft
3. Go about your day
Scott Strgacich retweeted
NEWS: The last Senate polls of 2026 from NYT/Siena:
From me and @RuthIgielnik
nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/po…
