Arb Bae

MLB POTD 10/3 ⚾️ Robbie Ray u4.5 strikeouts -134 Ray draws a Milwaukee lineup that has been extremely difficult to put away, and the bigger part of this handicap is how little incentive San Diego has to push him. The Padres have arguably the best bullpen in baseball and have shown throughout October that they aren't afraid to get to it early. Craig Stammen's comments on Ray were telling as well — how deep he goes is going to depend on how well he's pitching, while also acknowledging that Ray can be erratic. In a playoff game, any sniff of trouble and I expect the leash to get extremely short. That is especially important with Ray's command. Since joining San Diego, Ray has posted a 14.2% walk rate, way above the 8.4% MLB average, walking 27 batters in only 43 innings. Now he gets arguably the worst possible matchup for that weakness. Milwaukee finished 2nd in MLB in walks with 668, averaging 4.12 walks per game, with a 10.6% team walk rate. This is a lineup that is perfectly willing to make him work, take borderline pitches and drive his pitch count up without giving him strikeout opportunities. The market agrees with the short-workload angle. Ray's 11.5 pitching outs line implies we're talking about roughly a four-inning expectation, and I'm projecting around 65–70 pitches. The strikeout stuff hasn't been vintage Ray either. He finished the regular season with just a 19.9% K rate, and after joining San Diego he struck out only 33 hitters in 43 innings. At this kind of workload, Ray essentially needs to be extremely efficient at generating Ks to get to five. Milwaukee's patience creates the exact opposite environment: longer at-bats, more walks, more pitches per hitter and a greater chance San Diego goes to its elite bullpen at the first sign of trouble. Hard for me to see him finding 5 strikeouts in what should be a very short outing.