@bdquinn
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Permanent Secretary of the Department of Bad Takes
Madison, WI
Joined July 2009
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While I don't doubt that there's a good deal of evidence to bring against her, the timing of this along with the Omar probe is definitely political to drop bombs as close as possible to the election.
NBC News: Virginia State Senator L. Louise Lucas charged in public corruption case, DOJ says
The 82-year-old surrendered to authorities to face charges Thursday, DOJ said. She was charged along with a half-dozen others.
Federal authorities on Thursday charged a prominent Virginia Democrat with racketeering and a money laundering conspiracy as part of an alleged public corruption case involving a cannabis business she co-owns, according to Justice Department spokesperson.
Link to poll: nbcnews.com/politics/justice…
The fact they've decided to lean into this big mistake convinces me that OH-Gov is likely D now. This is just going to be repugnant to like 75% of people.
Those Dem districts look like what would happen if you pooped out a few blue-tinted tapeworms and there was a lot of blood along with them.
DON'T trust early voting data!
WHOA look at this ten-minute interval in Macklemore County!
DON'T trust early voting data!
WHOA look at this trend-adjusted spread in the southern part of Robert Duval County!
He's (LatinX Doctor guy)definitely fabricated, or has done some bizarre manipulation of, the Georgia early vote data he's used to make it look like the Black vote share is down vs. prior cycles when it's up substantially and the white share is down like six points.
Have gotten some questions about this, the data circulating may be either fabricated or incomplete in a way that overstates the decline in the Democratic registration advantage from day to day.
Oct 15 (Cumulative)
🔵 Democratic – 8,647 (55.8%)
🔴 Republican – 4,571 (29.5%)
⚪ Other – 2,279 (14.7%)
Total – 15,497
Oct 16 (Daily Change)
🔵 Democratic – 7,833 (51.0%)
🔴 Republican – 4,888 (31.8%)
⚪ Other – 2,634 (17.2%)
Total – 15,355
Oct 19(Daily Change)
🔵 Democratic – 13,408 (52.7%)
🔴 Republican – 7,196 (28.3%)
⚪ Other – 4,843 (19.0%)
Total – 25,447
Oct 20 (Daily Change)
🔵 Democratic – 12,065 (51.8%)
🔴 Republican – 7,097 (30.4%)
⚪ Other – 4,147 (17.8%)
Total – 23,309
Oct 21 (Daily Change)
🔵 Democratic – 10,361 (49.6%)
🔴 Republican – 6,668 (31.9%)
⚪ Other – 3,845 (18.4%)
Total – 20,874
Above is the complete data from our partners at @L2political.
Given that Republicans have an enormous registration advantage in Florida, we should certainly expect this to flip soon even if Dems turn out at a higher rate as a percentage of their registrants than Republicans.
Florida Early Voting Update 10/22:
Florida Democrats have a lead with about 55K going into today. That lead has been reduced each day that IPEV has started, and the gap continues to widen for Democrats.
Here is what has happened with party registration the first few days of IPEV:
Day 1: R+ 0.4%
Day 2: R+ 4.2%
Day 3: R+ 11.4%
If that gap continues to widen, Democrats mail gains will be offset more and more, their overall lead will be gone by early next week, maybe even Saturday when all counties begin IPEV.
Democrats continue to make gains in the mail, their return rate is improving and catching up to Rs, only 1.33% behind Rs now. That's what they will continue to want to see and will need to use what mail they have left to blunt Rs IPEV advantage.
After we see today's voting, I will give an estimated model of what the final early vote should look like in Florida.
Now to show this doesn't have a great deal of predictive power, Republicans won North Carolina in 2024 by about the same margin they won it by in 2022 despite a much redder early vote by the same time.
What's left to come in will, of course, be much more Republican because
Kind of a 2024 where, because the big states all swung so much to Trump, only 12 states trended right relative to the country? Possible. These things do happen.
It's odd how much higher Dem rural turnout is in Nevada that Republican rural turnout, all within rural Nevada being incredibly Republican, of course.
Similar thing seen in Ohio where rural Dem turnout is very high.
The story continues to be underperformance by Clark Ds.
Nevada D turnout
Clark: 15.5%
Washoe: 21.4% (!)
Rurals: 22.5% (!!)
Total: 16.9%
But 77.4% of D voters in Nevada are in Clark County.
This doesn't means Rs are favored to flip CD1, 3 or 4, but it's good news for @JosephMLombardo and other statewide candidates.
I've said during all of this that, if Talarico is to win, it'll be by like 1-1.5%. The tied to Talarico +2 polls are consistent with that.
Not that a one point shift in a poll means anything, but this is actually one point better for Talarico than Emerson's last poll.
TEXAS POLL with @NXSTMediaGroup
US Senate
James Talarico (D) 48%
Ken Paxton (R) 46%
Ted Brown (L) 1%
5% undecided
Governor
Greg Abbott (R) 49%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 45%
Pat Dixon (L) 1%
4% undecided
Full: emersoncollegepolling.com/te…
Watch: youtube.com/watch?v=bklovp1t…
Sounds like a lot, but that raft of Emerson polls was basically like this. Also, the Virginia House of Delegates results last year were D+16. And the environment is worse for Republicans this year than last, so...
🚨NEW VIRGINIA POLL🚨
Virginia Congressional Generic Ballot
🔵Democrats +20
🔵59% Democrats
🔴39% Republicans
⚪️3% Undecided
⬅️ 16-point shift to Democrats from 2024
articles.statenavigate.com/v…
🧵
Roger Marshall would be the funniest one.
.@KareemRifai says the allegations against a gay, closeted US Senator are an “October surprise” that will shake up a Senate race.
