Building Prediction Markets
Joined March 2020
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Prediction markets have a few unique qualities that make them valuable for tracking elections:
• They incentivize accuracy - people are rewarded primarily for being right (not eyeballs, power, etc)
• They're peer to peer - people set the odds, not a gatekeeper
• They're transparent - you can see the order book, the history, etc
• They move in real time - odds update as soon as new information comes in
That's why so many people and news outlets like CBS look to them during the midterms.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Danny McBride in this ??
You know I gotta post the classic scene between Danny McBride and Craig Robinson struggling to keep a straight face while Will Ferrell goes completely off-script right in front of them on Eastbound & Down
🤝 Paid partnership
Turns out Danny is onto something: Kalshi weather markets are more accurate than the top weather forecasts arxiv.org/abs/2609.23969
Open markets incentivize people to do extra research
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Comedian Shane Gillis and Danny McBride star as Weathermen for Kalshi's new commerical
🤝 Paid partnership
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Prediction markets are betting against Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio. With Democrats favored in the governor and Senate races, @ChrisCuomo looks at what could be driving the shift. @Kalshi
The media has an incentive to get attention.
Traders have an incentive to get it right.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
The clearest explanation I’ve seen of the difference between prediction markets and sportsbooks.
Amazing how much of the media still fails to understand the basic mechanics.
🤝 Paid partnership
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Every Tesla, every Starlink dish, every rocket on the pad. All of it needs tungsten. It’s in chips, jet engines, drones, missiles, and armor-piercing rounds.
It's in everything America is trying to build. China controls most of the world’s supply. Prices are up 500%+, including a 94% spike in six weeks this spring.
Oil has futures. Gold has futures. Copper has futures. Tungsten had nothing. So we built it.
Through @PillarHQ, an Ohio metals distributor locked in protection against tungsten prices on Kalshi. A real American business, hedged against a geopolitical supply shock, on a market that didn’t exist until now.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
🚨 Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ on @RuthlessPodcast explains how ordinary Americans are outperforming the experts.
MIT researchers pitted geopolitical experts against everyday people.
"Guess which ones did better at predicting? The random dudes."
The elites "don't do a better job than the wisdom of the crowds."
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Breaking:
NYSE told federal regulators it's putting up betting markets on the price of <new stocks ABC>. This creates new insider trading risks at all these companies.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
The latest @Kalshi forecasts put Abdul El-Sayed ahead in the Michigan Senate race even as his campaign faces heightened scrutiny. Will the latest controversies move the needle on Election Day? Democratic strategist @MikeNellis and conservative talk show host @MarkDavis weigh in.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
I haven't updated you guys in a while, but my Kalshi portfolio has officially crossed $200,000, starting from just a $1,000 deposit a few months ago.
That marks 20% of the way to our goal of $1M!!!
And TODAY, just 2 weeks before the midterms, I officially signed a lease to build what I'm calling the first prediction market situation room (The Riga Room)!
It's honestly surreal how quickly things have changed.
With my focus now shifting from sports recently back to my favorite category.... with the midterms just 14 days away, I'm going all in on getting this place built out before election night.
What should I add to The Riga Room??? and who wants to pull up and use the second seat?
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Ain’t no way Dillon Brooks has a NYC billboard dedicated to trolling LeBron 😭😭😭
This is unprecedented levels of trolling.
🤝 Paid partnership
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
I pray I never have haters as devout to the cause as Dillon Brooks is to LeBron James. This is in NYC today, when LeBron is making his Sixers debut at MSG. It is an ad for a fake device called the “Kingblocker,” used mute LeBron and all of his nicknames on TV and social media.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
you can also use this to block Kalshi ads
cc @allanmaman
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Thank you for having me @CBSLosAngeles to speak about prediction market hedging!
Many speculate (or "bet", as you call it) on prediction markets, just like they do on any derivatives market. But the exchange structure harnesses that speculation for price discovery and enables risk management for individuals and businesses, big or small.
Over time, prediction markets will let people manage exposure to most things outside of our control. We're in the early innings of that. Incredibly excited to be part of building that future.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
What if we made a commercial inside of a commercial?
What if we spent way too much time, energy, and R&D to build a product that literally mutes any mention of a very specific NBA player?
Sounds good.
23 available.
KingBlocker9000.com
