I am shorting the AI bubble by shorting the following names: $CRWV $ORCL $NVDA My Coreweave and Oracle short positions are very big; Nvidia short position is a bit smaller (bc better company). But anyway, I think there is a good chance that it's all (or mostly) downhill from here for the AI labs, and the companies financially entangled with them. While bubbles can go on much longer than one can remain solvent, I think that the catalysts I've been waiting for for many months now (since I published my AI bubble Substack piece in June) have arrived: 1) AI lab revenue growth rate slowing substantially as token prices continue to collapse 2) Coreweave's debt reaching 15% (distressed) Revenue slowing is of course the key development, as it totally collapses the growth story, which needed to continue to be off-the-charts to justify all this CapEx. Then, Coreweave getting totally dissed by debt investors (whom we all know deep down are the most rigorous/sophisticated) to me is proof that Real Consequences™️ are starting to arrive, as the first truly major cracks start to form. Unlike most people on fintwit, I am super open about the positions I take w/r/t putting my money where my mouth is. So by all means, bookmark.

There's a certain kind of person who is *really* into the theatrical aspects of AI, like the inner gossip among AI employees, their culty belief systems, what Sam and Dario eat for breakfast, etc etc I find this sort of infatuation super repulsive, and I couldn't care less. Granted, *someone* does need to keep tabs on this stuff. I'm not saying it's irrelevant—it matters who is control of all this stuff, and knowing the character traits/personality quirks of these people does help you build a more robust mental model of the larger scene. But personally I just find it dull as hell. Wake me up when someone legit murders someone at one of the labs, or someone crashes out and tries to shut everything down from within, or some shit. Until then I stay looking at the credit spreads and revenue data.

If you are upset or even a little disturbed by Bending Spoon’s business model (in a nutshell: acquire stagnant digital businesses, fire almost everyone who works there, use LLMs to run what’s left), fear not… within 2 years Bending Spoons will be practically worthless. They exist in this highly profitable but also highly temporary middle space where they make money selling middling SaaS products that are only successful because of lingering goodwill built up during the pre-AI era, by their original teams. However, starting very soon, the Bending Spoons playbook will start to cannibalize itself, as competitors move in like vultures and start eating directly off their plate. Their core team will inevitably feel exactly as all the employees that they’ve recently fired feel now. Berkshire Hathaway gave Bending Spoons $330 million based on their current high-flying numbers, but they will ultimately lose money on this investment. Margin compression is a bitch. Two years.

CoreWeave $CRWV bagholders in shambles.

You can follow Citrini, or you can follow me and get takes like these 6 weeks sooner.

That’s one way to put it. @WSJ

Tech bros: "AI is not a financial bubble." @arakharazian:

It appears the new coordinated cope from the AI boosters, now that Wall Street credit analysts and the data from Ramp have rained on their parade, is: "bUt lOoK at tHe gPu sPoT pRiCeS!!" No shit the spot prices are high—the VCs and labs are throwing money at GPUs like crazy... the entire AI bubble thesis is that this is not sustainable. If anything this is more evidence that the bubble is as big as we're saying it is. Spot prices are not how you measure whether we're in a bubble, *organic* end user demand (that is NOT funded/propped up by VC money) is. And right now, the AI business spend data coming out of Ramp data is the only good proxy that I'm aware of (if there are any better datasets out there, please lmk!). Is this really all you got??

Hmmm... who is burning all the cash that's keeping GPU prices this elevated?