Building AI agent systems. Shipping products with agents (XAVIOR, mempalace). Sometimes Bitcoin.
Santa Monica, CA
Joined September 2008
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Here’s my current thinking… the only states that matter in this election are the ones that can flip either from Democrat to Republican or Republican to Democrat.
The only states that I’m seeing that might flip Republican to Democrat are North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska.
Out of those, Ohio, Tex, and Alaska care a lot about energy policy… but Maine and North Carolina care more about energy prices
Then the possible flips from D to R are New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota. I do not foresee any of these flipping.
My current Senate election prediction is that only North Carolina and Maine are going to flip from Republican to Democrat.
Raising rates typically suppresses the appetite for borrowing, but clearly the drive for superintelligence does not care about rates…
Companies have added ~19K BTC a month since 2020.
The network only issues ~13.5K a month.
Retail sells, corporations absorb it, and the float keeps shrinking.
Daily price is noise. The power law is the signal.
Track it at b1m.io - also has a mobile app.
Ben Sigman retweeted
Highlights from Bitcoin Alpha 2026:
- led a session on social media, AI and Bitcoin
- had a long chat with @Cernovich
- convinced David Chaum to come to my meetup
- pitched @cluborange to the shark tank and got a new investor
- had a in depth discussion with somebody who thinks quantum can already break bitcoin
- saw some old friends and made new ones
I don't know how @dotkrueger & @bensig pull this off every year, but they do.
A reminder that the best part of Bitcoin is the bitcoiners.
Quantum FUD has gotten quieter, but math keeps moving. Quick update on quantum vs bitcoin:
The estimated "logical qubit" requirements for attacking Bitcoin's secp256k1 have fallen from ~2,300 to Google's 1,175, and now below 900 in the latest ECDSA.fail work by Jieyi Long (Theta Labs).
A lot of that progress happened in 2026, with AI helping optimize the algorithmic circuits.
But what about the actual hardware?
IonQ recently estimated that breaking a Bitcoin private key would require ~20,000 "physical qubits" (note there is a diff between physical and logical) and would take 26 days.
Interestingly, IonQ's own roadmap targets 20,000 physical qubits and 1,600 logical qubits by 2028.
Just TWO YEARS away.
Let's compare that to everyone else:
IonQ:
2024 - 36+ physical qubits
2025 - 64-100+
2026 - 100-256+ (target)
2027 - 10,000 (target!)
2028 - 20,000 (target!)
IBM:
2025 - 120 physical qubits on Nighthawk
2029 - 200 logical qubits (target)
2033+ - 2,000 logical qubits (target)
Google:
2024 - 105 physical qubits on Willow
2026 - Still working toward large-scale fault tolerance, with no comparable public deadline for thousands of logical qubits.
IonQ has actually hit several past performance milestones early, but going from a few hundred physical qubits to 10,000 in a single year is an entirely different challenge.
And physical qubit counts alone don't tell the story. Error correction, gate fidelity, connectivity and runtime matter enormously. These companies also use different architectures, so the numbers aren't directly interchangeable.
IonQ's 2028 projection is incredibly aggressive compared to IBM and Google.
Could they pull it off?
Maybe... but I wouldn't confuse a corporate roadmap with a working quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin.
The algorithms are getting cheaper fast.
The hardware remains the big question and ultimate limiter (still after 20 years) of quantum computing.
I don't think Bitcoin is about to be broken, but I also think the community could start to prepare now...
Lots of great sessions at Bitcoin Alpha this year.
Nothing was recorded. Every session had leaders, but everyone in the room participated. No passive audiences, just conversations.
These were the TOP 10 sessions by attendee interest:
01 - $1M Is Closer Than You Think
@dotkrueger covered money creation, Bitcoin's power law, and a whole lot of pure bullishness.
02 - AI / Quantum Will Break Bitcoin Before We Fix It
I led this one with @chaumdotcom. David brought an updated paper on quantum-proofing Bitcoin addresses without changing Bitcoin itself. Very cool approach, and I'll share more as I dig into it.
My takeaway: We're still a long way from AI or quantum computers breaking Bitcoin.
03 - Multisig / Wrench
@ProofOfMoney and @dotkrueger led a fascinating discussion on timelocks and operational security.
Terence has some videos on this, and I expect the conversation to continue well beyond the conference.
04 - America and Bitcoin
This went deep into monetary policy, foreign policy, Fed policy, and I got to dig into @MarylandHODL21's predictions about recapitalization.
Lots of substance here. Follow him if you aren't already.
05 - AI Will Be Bitcoin's Biggest User
Led by @tomyoungjr, who is always incredibly well-spoken and fun to be around.
I missed this session, but it's a thesis worth exploring, especially as AI agents become economic actors.
06 - Sovereign Trinity: Abundance, Scarcity, and Human Agency
Missed this one too, but after hearing @MarylandHODL21 and @CH2BF throughout the event, both are firmly on my radar.
07 - Japan's Decline and America's Future
Possibly the biggest surprise of the entire event for me.
We were incredibly lucky to have @peruvian_bull show up and absolutely knock everyone's socks off.
His depth of knowledge on Japan's economic decline was extraordinary, and the parallels to the path America and the dollar could be heading down were unsettling...
One of my favorite sessions of the day.
08 - Digital Credit Is Bitcoin's Killer App
Some exceptionally sharp attendees took on different roles to explain Strategy's place in the market and the mechanics of digital credit.
Came away even more bullish on Strategy.
09 - Your Heirs Will Lose Their Bitcoin
@tomyoungjr and @nstanley tackled Bitcoin inheritance planning.
I heard from several people that this was among the most valuable sessions of the day. The kind of practical knowledge that's surprisingly hard to find online.
10 - From RPOW to Bitcoin: Hal Finney Was Satoshi
@dotkrueger made the case.
You won't get to hear Fred deliver this one because we don't record sessions, but you CAN explore his slides:
satoshi.study
That's the thing about Bitcoin Alpha. Some of the best conversations happen in rooms with no cameras, no recordings, and no audience sitting quietly waiting for the next speaker.
You have to be there.
Ben Sigman retweeted
Phenomenal 1st time @bitcoinalphaorg experience. Grateful for all the hard work that went into it from @dotkrueger, @bensig and the whole volunteer team. Already excited about next year! 🚀
And thanks @tiffany_varty for this wonderful recap!
I'm hoping not to need @ProofOfMoney's OneWheel support next year, lol.
Bitcoin Alpha 2026… 🦈
Mission Complete!
Huge thanks to @bensig @dotkrueger & Team for putting together a world class act. Cheers to unconferences and great people! Bitcoiners are one-of-kind, happy to know you all 😎
… to the moon!🌖🚀
Took a tour of the massive Aman buildout in Beverly Hills yesterday - got an invite from @ArchLending
Very impressive property - it is adjacent to the hilton. Building two 28 story towers + one 11 story tower - it is going to have a ton of gardens and public space as well as a private club, residences, and a hotel.
They are also tapping into geothermal energy.
Company doing the buildout is Cain - who also did the Century City mall renovation.
Bitcoin Alpha 2026: mission complete. 🚀🌕
Thank you to everyone who came out to Santa Monica, to our crew and volunteers, and to the 13 founders who stepped in to pitch to investors at the "Shark Tank" sessions.
The recap, the top sessions and what you all posted: 2026.bitcoinalpha.org
See you in 2027.
And a huge thank you to the people who made the program. At an unconference, the sessions are only as good as the people who stand up and lead them:
@dotkrueger @chaumdotcom @peruvian_bull @kingbootoshi @michaelterpin @proofofmoney @TimKotzman @tomyoungjr @matteopelleg @MarylandHODL21 @lastcoinstandng @lesborsai @jamestagg @AunayEtienne @theDAHTcom @nstanley @beau_turner21 @jimihendrixson @almashhh @sahara0910 @fly888 @verixio
and a huge shoutout to @ArchLending for making the happy hour possible and generally being a great support to many Bitcoiners who want to borrow against their stack
Ben Sigman retweeted
Forever grateful to @dotkrueger and @bensig for their gracious hosting of @bitcoinalphaorg which they kindly invited me to attend. A labour of love for them for which we, the community, are deeply grateful.
Ben Sigman retweeted
Bitcoin Alpha III: that's a wrap.
Thank you to Ben, Jerry, Shant, and all the volunteers — packing the bags, building the astronaut suit, tracking down the old Smith Corona, getting the shark back in one piece, and getting it all out by midnight.
Amazing.
To our LPs in the 2718 fund — we appreciate you. Simple, low-LTV borrowing is the way.
To Arch Lending — Freddy and Dhruv — thank you for sponsoring the pre-party at the Shore. Everybody really enjoyed it.
To Neil, Jimi, and everyone who flew in — I'm glad the Southern California weather did not disappoint.
To the founders who stepped into the shark tank — Bitcoin pitches at 2, AI at 3 — thank you for putting real work on a live stage.
To Andrew — thank you for whatsonthetest.com. The younger generation is amazing.
To Peruvian Bull, Thomas Young, Tim Kotzman, and David Chaum for the sessions I caught — and to everyone who led the ones I missed. The FOMO was real.
To Terrance, Loren, Shawn, and Natalie for the Bitcoin Today media coverage in our media area — and to btcsavant and so many other repeat Alphas.
To the crew at Hotel Casa del Mar for providing the perfect room.
Please check out our two projects: xavior.ai — AI email marketing for small business — and 2718.fund — a bitcoin fund that pays you 10% tax-deferred while preserving bitcoin upside.
And to everyone who spent three days with us in Santa Monica — this only works because you show up. Here's to the next one.
This is why you should not snooze your updates on apps
For the second time in Google Chrome’s history, Google awarded a $250,000 bounty for a full-chain exploit… to @XBOW. Here’s the full story:
At an all-hands at the start of 2026 in Malta, I set the team a crazy challenge. A full-chain exploit of Chrome by the annual Black Hat cybersecurity conference in August.
I believed there were few better tests of whether @XBOW could move beyond web applications to desktop software, servers and devices.
Chrome is one of the most hardened pieces of software on the planet, used by more than half the world’s population.
A full-chain exploit lets an attacker take total control of a machine, where they can read every email, password and bank login the user types. You don’t need to download anything or click a phishing link. Visiting the wrong site is enough.
So @moyix, Andres Luksenberg, Baul Lee, and Willem Pinckaers took on the challenge along with a fifth teammate: OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol.
They built a chain they thought would win, but Google told us they already knew one of the bugs.
We were already in Las Vegas for Black Hat and DEF CON, and the team didn’t want to go home without the win.
So Brendan and the agents built a new exploit in just 6 days.
We submitted it to Google and waited.
The news came through that we'd done what should’ve been impossible. A full-chain bounty of $250,000, the first awarded under Google’s 2026 rules.
It took just 6 days and $40,000 of compute to construct an exploit that affects a billion users of Chrome on Windows. An intelligence-agency veteran told me his team used to spend 6 months on this kind of vulnerability.
My takeaway: the cost of finding truly critical vulnerabilities is collapsing, for attackers and defenders alike. Restricting powerful models is not the answer; GPT-5.6 Sol is already public.
But defenders have one advantage attackers never will: they can test their own code first.
Assume your software is exploitable. Whoever is hunting your bugs has the same building blocks we did.
This is cause for urgency but not panic.
XBOW is now developing an autonomous product for testing compiled software (desktop applications, servers, embedded devices), and partnering with the world’s top organizations to design that product.
If you’d like to be one of them, get in touch.
P.S. Restart Chrome whenever the Update button appears!
