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Bread Crumbs Research

@breadcrumbsre

People-centric investing. Unrecognized/underappreciated excellence. "Trying to spot a great manager remains a game very much worth playing" (Marathon AM)

outliers.substack.com/
Joined February 2011
  • Tweets22.7K
  • Following580
  • Followers26K
3.3KMedia
Photo by Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)Photo by Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)Photo by Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)Photo by Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)Photo by Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)Photo by Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)Photo by Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)Photo by Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)Photo by Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)Photo by Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)
People keep anchoring to ipo price like it means something
Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) profile pictureGary Marcus
@GaryMarcus14h
Absolute slaughter. Double digit losses for many AI companies. SpaceX 10% below IPO price, CoreWeave about to drop below its IPO price. Nvidia is down almost 10% The AI industry’s day of reckoning may have finally come.
Image from Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus)
Image from Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus)
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soxx tanking prob means cost of your ai subscription is going up
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evergreen: snap shitting pants on earnings
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Elon is an outstanding entrepreneur and POS human being
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Bread Crumbs Research retweeted
Paul Narrenschiff (@TheNarrenschiff) profile picture
Paul Narrenschiff@TheNarrenschiffNov 1
“Carl studied [physics / engineering / math] at [Standord / CalTech / MIT], so Carl is an expert on [anything technical] and, in addition to being an expert, also wouldn’t ever lie.” Since people are talking about investing heuristics today, this is a “bagholder” heuristic.
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fishing ponds
Image from Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)
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Image from Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre)
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Seems like North Korea will report 20% gdp growth this year
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[NK hackers just stolen $6bn from Binance]
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OMG
Heikki Keskiväli (@hkeskiva) profile pictureHeikki Keskiväli
@hkeskivaOct 30
Mitähän ServiceNow'n $NOW sijoittajasuhdeosastolla on oikein polteltu...? -27% jo näistä yksinään oikeutettu
Image from Heikki Keskiväli (@hkeskiva)
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Bread Crumbs Research retweeted
Dmitrijs Baulins (@AstutexAi) profile picture
Dmitrijs Baulins
@AstutexAiOct 29
$SFM ☠️☠️☠️
Image from Dmitrijs Baulins (@AstutexAi)
Image from Dmitrijs Baulins (@AstutexAi)
Dmitrijs Baulins (@AstutexAi) profile pictureDmitrijs Baulins
@AstutexAi3 Nov 2025
One important thing to bear in mind when you invest in consumer businesses - it can go quickly both ways. And once the trend reversed - there is no such thing as "cheap" $SFM $SMPL $SVV $NWL
Image from Dmitrijs Baulins (@AstutexAi)
Image from Dmitrijs Baulins (@AstutexAi)
Image from Dmitrijs Baulins (@AstutexAi)
Image from Dmitrijs Baulins (@AstutexAi)
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Got a lot of aggressive pushback from google cult members after I mentioned my personal search volume was down like 90% yoy yet here we are 🫠
Kostya (@avgtrades) profile pictureKostya
@avgtradesOct 29
Replying to @avgtrades
JMP on $googl
Image from Kostya (@avgtrades)
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Why retail investors love Boeing ?
Breakout Point (@BreakoutPoint) profile pictureBreakout Point
@BreakoutPointOct 28
Retail investors (live estimates): 1 $SKHY ▲21 2 $HOOD ▲31 3 $VRT ▲69 4 $GOOG ▲12 5 $STX 🆕 6 $ENPH 🆕 7 $MU ▲3 8 $GOOGL — 9 $BA ▲3 10 $TSLA ▼8 Retail leaderboard via breakoutpoint.com
Image from Breakout Point (@BreakoutPoint)
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Oh no
Nomad Cap (@Nomad_cap) profile pictureNomad Cap@Nomad_capOct 27
Levered semi accounts are posting P&Ls again. It’s over. I don’t make the rules.
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Market values cyclicals on normalized earnings. If multiple is low it means the biz is overearning and normalized earnings are below current earnings. Stock is not cheap, it’s overearning. Typically the best time to buy cyclicals is when they are under earning
(((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) profile picture(((The Daily Shot)))
@SoberLookOct 27
The semiconductor sector is trading at record-low forward P/E levels. Source: Goldman Sachs via @WallStJesus
Image from (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook)
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Capital cycle is coming for your stonks
junkbondinvestor (@junkbondinvest) profile picturejunkbondinvestor
@junkbondinvestOct 26
Meta is raising up to $95bn of equity to fund AI spending, ~$35bn of common and pref now plus up to ~$60bn through an ATM. Bondholders should like this. $META
Image from junkbondinvestor (@junkbondinvest)
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That’s because Russia is an empire that occupies other countries to pump resources out of them, not to make them better
Eerik N Kross 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇮🇱🇪🇺 (@EerikNKross) profile pictureEerik N Kross 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇮🇱🇪🇺
@EerikNKrossOct 25
Exactly this. Whenever Moscow conquers a country, it is impoverished, polluted and destroyed. This is what happened to Estonia's economy (compared to Finland) during the Soviet Occupation. Estonia was wealthier than Finland in 1938, the Soviet occupation (1944-1991) turned it 10 times poorer. Since freedom from the Russians was achieved, it's back on track.
Image from Eerik N Kross 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇮🇱🇪🇺 (@EerikNKross)
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Exactly this. Whenever Moscow conquers a country, it is impoverished, polluted and destroyed. This is what happened to Estonia's economy (compared to Finland) during the Soviet Occupation. Estonia was wealthier than Finland in 1938, the Soviet occupation (1944-1991) turned it 10 times poorer. Since freedom from the Russians was achieved, it's back on track.
Image from Eerik N Kross 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇮🇱🇪🇺 (@EerikNKross)
Natalka (@NatalkaKyiv) profile pictureNatalka
@NatalkaKyivOct 24
“The most interesting thing is that the toothless, provincial Russian masses are absolutely convinced that they’re wanted everywhere and that people dream of Russkiy Mir coming to their countries.” — Ukrainian political analyst Borys Tizengauzen explains Russkiy Mir in simple terms that even vatniks can’t argue against. 📹 youtube.com/@tizengauzen?si=…
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Bread Crumbs Research retweeted
Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) profile picture
Anne Applebaum
@anneapplebaumOct 25
Putin's army is stuck. Now he is trying to win through propaganda and a terrorist campaign
Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) profile pictureInstitute for the Study of War
@TheStudyofWarOct 24
Replying to @TheStudyofWar
2/ Russian forces have made effectively zero net gains in 2026 at the cost of over 40,000 casualties per month since July and around 458 casualties for every square kilometer of territory that Russian forces lost.
Image from Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)
Image from Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)
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That’s about 15 years late
New York Post (@nypost) profile pictureNew York Post
@nypostOct 23
Hershey to release protein powder - as CEO hopes to entice consumers on GLP-1 to snack again trib.al/WjhRAW5
Image from New York Post (@nypost)
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