CasperHub

MWII01 is a low-coverage femur from the Abbey Church of Middelburg, traditionally attributed to William II, Count of Holland and King of the Romans. Historians have also named his brother Floris the Guardian. I fitted the genome against medieval, Roman and Iron Age reference groups. I used 106 qpAdm models fixed before they were run, f3 and f4 statistics, Fst among 32 reference groups, a distal model and entropy-rescaled PCA distances. What it shows: a single Netherlands Medieval Saxon source fits (p = 0.108), and no Slavic input is detectable. Only 4 of 104 two-source models are both feasible and precise. The Roman-period one, Denmark Roman Iron Age 90 % plus Imperial Rome (Lazio) 10 %, clears alpha by just 0.018. On the rescaled maps MWII01 sits with Low Countries and English medieval groups, and modern French, English and GBR cannot be told apart. Fst shows why: ten North Sea medieval and Viking groups differ by at most 3 × 10⁻³ from one another, so one low-coverage genome cannot say which of them it is closest to. It says nothing about whose bones these are. Population ancestry cannot separate two brothers. Only kinship or Y-lineage could. Full paper with all models, tables and figures: nexju.com/blog/mwii01-a-low-…