Cameron Macgregor

Hungarian ultras of Ferencvaros in Milan. Outside Duomo: "WE HAVE TO DEFEND EUROPE!" Football ultras are mobilizing everywhere.

🇵🇱 BREAKING: Poland Erupts in Massive Protests Poland. Millions of people in the streets. Massive protests are unfolding. Another extraordinary scene from Europe.

The amazing thing about Google getting hammered today is not that its core Search business is under stress. It’s how long it took investors to figure that out. AI is changing the regime under which the hyperscalers became some of the highest-return-on-capital businesses in human history. Google & Meta, and to a lesser extent Amazon, are at the centre of this disruption. They became the modern-day landlords of the digital economy. Google auctioned search intent. Meta auctioned attention. Amazon auctioned product discovery. They controlled access to consumers and charged advertisers increasingly expensive rents for the privilege. Beautiful low capital intensive businesses. Until the rules change. AI is doing precisely that,faster than the internet revolution that created these empires. I barely use a web browser for search anymore. It has degenerated into a window for opening websites. Why scroll through sponsored links & SEO garbage for dog food when an AI assistant can find what I need? I doubt I am alone. Their response? Join the party and build staggering amounts of compute. Google alone is heading towards US$200bn of capex in 2026, while its Search growth is already slowing. Clayton Christensen explained the problem in Innovator’s Dilemma. Incumbents struggle when technological disruption destroys the economics of the very businesses that made them successful. But throwing trillions at the disruptive technology won’t make another high ROIC units. Instead it renders the entire shop average. Worse, AI is on track to become commoditised, with economics eventually resembling airline seats: enormous fixed costs, relentless capacity additions, falling unit prices and fierce competition. Models become cheaper, more interchangeable and increasingly tailored to individual needs. Much of that intelligence will eventually run locally on personal devices. Who pays the landlord when the tenants no longer need his building? In 2025, Google generated US$225bn from Search, Meta US$196bn from advertising. How much of that can they defend, let alone replace, while committing hundreds of billions to a data centre arms race? It’s just ridiculous. In 2 years time they can buy these zero-moat compute factories for 20 cent on the $. The problem is the moat. I’d argue that 98% of businesses have no durable moat. Schumpeter’s creative destruction eventually erodes any competitive advantages in a free enterprise system, growth fades and returns on capital gravitate towards 5–7% as competition brings supply into balance with demand. Bruce Greenwald explained in Competition Demystified just how hard it is to build a economic moat. My favourite is what Buffett calls share of mind. Try displacing Coca-Cola, Pampers or WD-40 with a 5% discount. Good luck. Where is AI’s moat? Switching costs are near zero. I switch bw 4-6 models and already use 2 specialised AIs for commodities, each offering proprietary data and knowledge depth. If at all, I see opportunity for high ROICs in owning scarce, valuable info & domain expertise rather than another tech layer. But that is hardly the 10 trn-dollar TAM that spoiled Google & Meta executives want to present on their next earnings calls. They think unrealistically big, with precious little capital discipline. Instead of accepting that the regime change, rest assured that they will throw endless good money after bad. Like 100% sure! History offers zero comfort for that process. Look at the former kings of the S&P 500: AT&T, GM, DuPont, IBM, Exxon, Kodak, Sears, Xerox, GE, Philip Morris, Pfizer, Citigroup, Intel or PanAm. Some went bust, others lost dominance; few retained their extraordinary economics. Expect Google to join the decay list.

5 OF THE LARGEST TEN BANKS IN THE US HAVE NOW ENTERED A BEAR MARKET TERRITORY. Bank of America: -23.5% Wells Fargo: -20.1% Goldman Sachs: -24% Morgan Stanley: -24% Capital One: -25% Along with this, the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has dropped 15.6% from its peak and has hit a 5-month low. Historically, bank stocks peak before the recession, and if this decline continues, it'll be a sign that there's a lot of trouble ahead for the US economy.

This is Liège (Luik), Belgium. Note how the French migrant “school riots” are spreading. Of course they are. Because they are not about the school system. They are ethnoculturally motivated attacks against Europe and its native peoples.

France is fighting for its life and has officially entered a Civil War that will soon eclipse the French revolution. Police officers are being lynched in the streets and hung from light poles. Any white person who dares to show their face on the street is viciously attacked. The official death toll is being suppressed, but dead bodies are everywhere. Thank God for the second amendment in the United States.

🚨 FRANCE ERUPTS — AND MUCH OF THE WORLD IS LOOKING ELSEWHERE Something significant is happening in France. And outside the country, you could easily miss the scale of it. Around 170 demonstrations took place across France yesterday. The French Interior Ministry estimates around 206,000 people took part. The unions put the figure closer to 300,000. Teachers. Firefighters. Hospital staff. Local-government workers. Public-sector employees. All taking to the streets over falling purchasing power, frozen salaries, deteriorating working conditions and pressure on public services. And at the same time, France is facing a separate wave of student unrest over overcrowded classrooms, teacher shortages and deteriorating schools. Hundreds of schools have been affected. Hundreds of arrests have been reported. Police and protesters have been injured. This is not a minor demonstration. France is experiencing a serious wave of social anger. Yet internationally, it barely resembles the scale of story these numbers suggest it should be. Why? Because behind the clashes and political arguments sits something much deeper: ordinary people increasingly believe the system is no longer working for them. Wages. Public services. Schools. Living standards. Trust in government. The pressure is building simultaneously. And when hundreds of thousands of people start taking to the streets— the rest of Europe should pay attention. France is angry. And this may not be over.

Global bond markets are blowing up. It feels to me like the crowd that tells us this isn't about fiscal stress is the same crowd that was rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. You think it's AI investment driving yields in France and Italy vertical? robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…

Powder Keg: Thousands Of Masked Patriots Show Up In Dover To Block The Illegal Migrant Ports. Sometimes waving flags and family outings aren't enough. Sometimes the establishment needs a reminder of who the country belongs to. Sometimes men have to do what men have to do.