data boy; poll enthusiast; plant father of 12; marbles owner of 1
commie corridor
Joined December 2025
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The Chicago millionaire tax passed at ~80% citywide. The map is unsurprising here with much of the Gold Coast and suburban and/or Orthodox wards being the strongest against the measure. The Orthodox of West Ridge were even less supportive than the actual Gold Coast millionaires!
danguspoochie retweeted
it’s time to join. dsausa.org/join
danguspoochie retweeted
I'm running a live estimate of results in #CA11, as Scott Weiner and Connie Chan battle it out. The predictions won't start until there's at least 10% of the vote in, but early vote looks good for @Scott_Wiener.
danguspoochie retweeted
I find your lack of Angie Nixon disturbing… She was endorsed by two (2!) chapters in FL!
📈Our Election Night tracker is live. Keep track of national-endorsed races, chapter-endorsed races, along with DemLeft’s election live blog
election.dsausa.org/
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It’s official: GOP has spent more against Will Lawrence ($23.3m) than any other Democratic House candidate in the country. #MI07
Data via @Ad_Impact
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I encourage people to not read anything on election day turnout data at all, but if you do want to look at Florida, keep in mind that comparisons to 2022 are really bad.
That was the worst Democratic turnout environment in a generation. Anything looks good in comparison.
An 8 point shift in registered voters isn't quite the 13 points separating Trump and Kamala; that small independent share is not gonna cut it to give Dems wins in FL.
At 9 AM in 2022 it was 500k votes and R+31
At 9 am in 2026 we have 400k votes and it's R+23
So turnout and Republican share are DOWN
According to datarepublican.com/florida/ Dems are even running ahead of 2024 election day at this time
Draw your own conclusions
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Don't trust the polls(?) New from me: I tried to sign the bias on historical Senate polling misses. First, we can see while polling has favored both parties, it consistently overestimated Democrats this decade. Not news for Dems battling 2020 PTSD. But this hides a pattern: (1/n)
Huge red flag. FWIW, polls have been very accurate in the last 2 midterm cycles, but I trust ground truth EV data more than any poll. The big Q is whether independents in FL actually shift towards Dems or not. I'm not convinced yet; we haven't seen Latino turnout in FL like in TX
What do the 6 counties in Texas that matched presidential turnout numbers have in common? 70%+ Latino. Shoutout to Dallas and Travis at 95% of 2024 turnout though
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Oliver Larkin endorsed Jared Moskowitz. Francesca Hong is literally out knocking doors for David Crowley. DSA candidates understand the stakes of a continued fascist Republican trifecta far more than the pro-Israel-at-all-costs wing of the party.
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Think the @HaleyforMI @AbdulElSayed saga is totally bonkers? The data agrees with you.
It’s also a part of a wider trend - the left’s donors don’t hold grudges. The establishment’s do
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Haley Stevens’ betrayal today shows us it’s not that progressive Democrats, or even democratic socialists, need their own party. It’s that politicians like Haley Stevens always had more in common with Republicans like Mike Rogers and Donald Trump than with the Democratic base. And now she admits it.
That’s why it’s so important to run democratic primaries. It’s not enough to send Democrats to Washington, we have to send Democrats who are fighting for the things working class voters want!
Florida Latinos are built different. In Michigan and Texas (especially), turnout is strongly correlated with Latino-share of population; Hidalgo County is at 100% of 2024 EV turnout. In Florida, not so much... xitter.gq/WillemDaFro/status/211…
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Hidalgo County is going to finish EV casting more votes than EV in 2024.
This is the @bobbypulido425 effect in action - bringing out tons of new voters for someone who gets the South Texas culture.
Downtown McAllen/Edinburg/PSJA/Weslaco looks good but look at those working class colonias - bright green with >100% of 2024 turnout!
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Anyone saying @RebellionPac groceries ad in Michigan is antisemitic is not only an obvious liar, but also an antisemite themselves. The ad never mentions Jewish people, it's strictly about Israel. But people like @VanJones68 put the blame on Jews instead, to protect Israel.