David Bezzant

UTAH’S SOIL MOISTURE IS AT RECORD LEVELS — AND THE NUMBERS TELL A BIG STORY. Two graphs help explain just how unusual Utah’s water situation is right now as we head toward winter. 1️⃣ SOIL MOISTURE: MORE LIKE MID-APRIL Statewide soil moisture has surged following our recent stretch of exceptionally wet weather. The current readings are well above the historical median for late October, reaching levels more typical of mid-April, when months of winter precipitation have helped recharge soils. That’s a major shift in a state where water availability is always a concern. 2️⃣ PRECIPITATION: RUNNING WAY AHEAD OF NORMAL The second graph shows statewide precipitation accumulation at 248% of the historical median for this point in the water year. That puts Utah at the 98th percentile compared with historical precipitation totals. Put simply, we’ve accumulated far more precipitation than we typically would by late October. The current total is more representative of what we might expect closer to late November. BUT HERE’S WHY THE DISTINCTION MATTERS. These two measurements tell us different things. Soil moisture shows how wet the ground is, while precipitation accumulation measures how much water has fallen. Both are important, but neither tells the entire story of Utah’s water supply. The positive side? This is an encouraging start to the water year. Wet soils and above-normal precipitation can help improve conditions heading into winter and provide a better foundation for the months ahead. There are potential downsides, too. Saturated soils have less capacity to absorb additional rainfall, increasing runoff and the potential for localized flooding during another heavy storm. That’s especially important in vulnerable watersheds, near burn scars and along waterways already running high. And here’s the biggest point: a wet fall does not guarantee a healthy spring runoff. Winter snowpack, where that snow accumulates, spring temperatures and the timing of snowmelt will determine how much water ultimately reaches our reservoirs. Statewide averages also mask differences between individual watersheds. Some basins may be doing much better than others, and precipitation falling as rain does not provide the same long-term storage benefits as mountain snowpack. THE BOTTOM LINE: Utah is entering winter with an unusually wet start to the water year. Soil moisture is running well above normal, and statewide precipitation is nearly two-and-a-half times the historical median. That’s encouraging news for our water outlook, but the real test comes this winter and spring. We need consistent mountain snowfall and favorable runoff conditions to turn this wet start into lasting water-supply benefits. For late October, these numbers are remarkable. Now, all eyes turn to winter! 🙌🏻