Late in 2025 I observed a curious phenomenon: whenever the Brent forward curve slipped into prompt contango (a sign the market was over-supplied and prices were trending down), the US would do something escalatory. -permitting Ukrainian strikes against Russian export facilities -sanctioning major Russian oil companies -beginning strikes on Venezuelan oil tankers -kidnapping Nicolas Maduro Each time, Brent's curve was in, or close to, contango. It was like someone in the WH was watching the curve and then giving the thumbs up for whatever the US had planned. A soft oil market created space for risky actions. Ultimately, there was confidence that prices wouldn't rise too high. I expect similar thinking persisted in late February 2026. Prices were already edging up, on the back of clear signs the US and Israel were preparing to attack Iran. But as the WH reportedly believed the war would be over quickly, there was likely little concern that the impact to oil (which remained in a state of oversupply, with ample inventories) would be contained. The thinking was paradoxical: a soft market created less cost to risky action, but the risk of action that produced a catastrophic market shock simultaneously rose. Trump faces high energy prices today because, when his term began, energy prices were structurally heading toward near-term lows.