Traveler. Builder. Architect. Airline miles hoarder. Accidental Homegame Energy / Geopolitical Analyst as of 2026 😒
Omaha, NE
Joined October 2017
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11/9/2026 Views on the current situation is out! My current thoughts on the geopolitics. Are we going back to war? Or give peace a chance?
depressedbull.substack.com/p…
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David Chan retweeted
Lets break down crude oil right now.
Love me the 3h chart, especially when looking at something where I want to know a few weeks out what it might do.
1. Bullish divergence on the MACD histo and MACD signal lines vs price. Also bullish divergence on RSI vs price. This is telling us that even though price got smashed back down to form a double bottom...the selling pressure wasn't there. Buyers stepped in.
2. Blue circle shows us the false breakdown of the falling wedge. False breakdowns of falling wedges(see the AVAV and KTOS charts) are typically quite bullish.
3. The orange circle shows us the quick snap back from the false breakdown, into a break out.
4. The green circle shows us the retest of the breakout. The beauty of this breakout retest is that it's testing not only the wedge, but also the horizontal support, which goes back years. The longer a trendline has been in existence..the more support or resistance.
5. Volume...the initial flush post election was heavy. Volume was higher...since then...this second leg down has faded in volume. Again, sellers getting exhausted.
Ignore the headlines. They are from media that is owned by the very billionaires who want you to buy or sell at the wrong time. The people who only trade on headlines go broke in short order and are back at Mcdonalds servin fries in no time.
Instead look at where money goes. Look at what happened to $LMT going into elections... or heading into the Feb Iran escalation... Look at $XOM at the end of 2025... Money was flowing into the space before there was even an inkling of the war... By the time the headlines came out...money had shifted again.
I read headlines for entertainment. But I don't trade on them. The charts are where the money is made. Big money can't hide their moves. Insiders are constantly deploying capital to certain areas...you want to be mindful of where it's going.
Right now the charts suggest that weak hands have sold out of oil, while smart money has been layering in.
I'm patient. I didn't go short dated with anything so I'm not worried about $SM closing up this week.
If you look back at $SM previous earnings...it's the same playbook. Sells off the day of and a few days after, where it finds footing, and then a few weeks after earnings its higher. I'm expecting something similar this time around.
Gonna stick my neck out... again. $SM buy at 29.50. MACD moving higher yet stock is still falling. Stock is grossly oversold.
Again. Trades at <4x earnings next year. Almost 20% FCF yield. $35 book value today.
@PrognosticApex is the better chartist. What we doing?
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David Chan retweeted
📍Circulating footage of the damaged Aramco tower in King Abdullah Financial District, Riyadh.
Saudi Aramco tower in Riyadh hit by Houthis Sunday morning
Abqaiq also potentially on fire.
oil market been pricing in peace and calm all week 🤷♂️
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David Chan retweeted
Anti-ship CM launches from Bandar Khamir, Bandar Jask and Qeshm Island, Hormozgan Province, Iran. Explosions in Hormuz Strait. Possible U.S. airstrikes or drone strikes in Bandar Jask.
Anti-ship CM launchers movements in Bandar Lengeh, Hormozgan Province, Iran. U.S. facilitated nightime transits likely ongoing along the Omani Southern Lane. U.S. Air Force & Navy are active over the Persian Gulf, UAE and Gulf of Oman. At least x5 KC-135R/KC-46A tankers & x1 USN P-8A Poseidon are operating over the area. A sixth USAF KC-46A just took off from Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar.
It is difficult to share my views on limited characters on X. Decided to start writing on Substack!
Appreciate any feedback on my writing, and hoping to be able to share more ideas with everyone!
Why Hello (to a whole new) World depressedbull.substack.com/p…
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$BNO picked up some at 65.8. Treasury seems like they aren’t hiding their activities. Let’s see how we do by midday New Yrok time today….
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David Chan retweeted
Not just the back end bidding up—Brent front vs M12 21d rolling correlation is dumping to levels unseen since last spring’s prompt spike(uncertainty blowout).
Setup flipped completely. Front is grinding slow, but long dated paper is rallying faster than back then.
Back end decoupling from the front signals a regime shift. Time to reprice the "crude dumps once this ends" consensus.
#oott #iran
The macro repricing of energy is now underway. Check out today's move in long dated oil - that's calendar 2027 WTI. When long dated oil moves this strongly in tandem with energy equities making new ATHs, financial markets need to listen. This is not a transient spike in prompt oil. It's far more structural. Get long, buckle your seat belt, and hang on for the ride.
David Chan retweeted
Lol. so predictable. 3 am and oils back to flat, as expected
these guys really dont try to spoof their moves anymore 😂
Lol. so predictable. 3 am and oils back to flat, as expected
these guys really dont try to spoof their moves anymore 😂
David Chan retweeted
Well, if history holds, we are gonna have a few hours of pressure until London starts trading around 3 PM Central, followed by the whole day being a nothing burger by NY hours.
They aren't even trying to hide lately, let's see if today plays out the same way 🤔