15 years corporate data and analytics consulting. Chart trader. Commodities, options, divergences. Free journal, not financial advice.
Joined January 2026
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Friendly reminder.
🤑
We've barely begun this reversion.
It doesn't move in a straight line...but when it moves, it takes 2-3 years and silver loses 50% from its peak and oil runs 2-5x. 15+ examples over 75 years.
It's a business cycle.
Ask yourself...
Are Irans cyberattackers better than the US?
Or is "someone" garnering support for another leg in this conflict?
Going into 9/11 the US did not support a war with Iraq.
On 9/10/01 a bunch of people shorted airline stocks. How did they know? Why did the SEC not prosecute?
On 9/11 3 steel and concrete buildings fell into their own footprint at freefall speeds...something that has never happened before or since...
On 9/12 half the country was ready to sign their sons up to go die.
Just food for thought.
US Warns Of Ongoing Cyber Threat To Industrial Freezers And Cold Storage zerohedge.com/geopolitical/u…
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$WFSTF
$SM
A little color for the journal today.
I wanted to add to my $SM position today as I saw:
1. Explorers ($XOP ) outperforming crude
2. Crude holding a longer term support
3. Defense and alternative energy stocks both rallying hard (signaling the oil trade isn't over)
4. Rates/$TLT unable to break their structure
Western forest has been a good position for me for the last year to year and a half...I'll trim/add when the technicals tell me. I had already trimmed this position not too long ago, expecting some turbulence, and today was looking through things again and determined I'd rather have my money in $SM here for the next month or three.
WFSTF with a bearish divergence...and the ratio vs SM also showing a nice divergence + repetitive pattern.
Will look to add WFSTF back to the port eventually. Just didn't make sense for me to keep it today given my views on oil for the next few months.
$TLT
$MCD
We are up 50 since my "It's Ronald McDonald Time" post on $MCD.
Let's just try and look objectively how this run has been, and what historical runs look like, and what happens after...
...Oh... maybe not the best technical setups here for $MCD.
30min has bearish divergence.
3h - last time RSI was this overbought we dropped from 340 to 230 in like 6 months.
Daily - same....big drop last time we reached these levels
Weekly - bearish divergence...and...historical runs like this in the last few years have tended to end at least in a pause.
Remember... this is half real estate company...half dog food. (if you want your dog to be fat and half dead)
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oh jeez.
Well..if you want to foment support for a war...destroying a countries food is a pretty good way to get that support.
Not that Israel, I mean the US, I mean France...would sabatage their own coolers and blame it on IRGC to garner support for a war... nah... they wouldn't do that. Just like they wouldn't destroy a couple buildings and 3,000 people so they could enter a war.
"They" wouldn't do that.....would they?
BREAKING: European Union says Iran hacked cooling systems in 700 supermarkets in France, raising freezers and fridges as high as 80°C and spoiling massive amounts of food, declaring the EU will now impose sanctions on Iran.
The attack also caused around 20 fires.
"I can confirm that this attack was carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of the Islamic Republic of Iran," France's FM Barrot says.
"It marks the first large-scale cyberattack aimed at sabotage on our national territory, and it constitutes a major attack on the nation's interests and the security of the French people," he adds.
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Lots of fear in oil today.
LOTS of capitulation.
$XOP
"Watch the explorers".
Probably sick of me saying this by now...I said it at the previous peak, the last trough, at the last peak, and am saying it again here...
I've been saying this for months at every turn.
Look what we have today.
Explorers down .5% while crude is down 5%.
Or look at defense stocks... why are we up 3, 7, 13% if "peace" is afoot?
Or look at solar/battery stocks... why are we up if oils gonna be free soon?
Why are $FRSPF and $MLPNF up 10% each today if oils headed lower?
New Moon starts....TODAY.
Friday the 13th this week.
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
Lets break down crude oil right now.
Love me the 3h chart, especially when looking at something where I want to know a few weeks out what it might do.
1. Bullish divergence on the MACD histo and MACD signal lines vs price. Also bullish divergence on RSI vs price. This is telling us that even though price got smashed back down to form a double bottom...the selling pressure wasn't there. Buyers stepped in.
2. Blue circle shows us the false breakdown of the falling wedge. False breakdowns of falling wedges(see the AVAV and KTOS charts) are typically quite bullish.
3. The orange circle shows us the quick snap back from the false breakdown, into a break out.
4. The green circle shows us the retest of the breakout. The beauty of this breakout retest is that it's testing not only the wedge, but also the horizontal support, which goes back years. The longer a trendline has been in existence..the more support or resistance.
5. Volume...the initial flush post election was heavy. Volume was higher...since then...this second leg down has faded in volume. Again, sellers getting exhausted.
Ignore the headlines. They are from media that is owned by the very billionaires who want you to buy or sell at the wrong time. The people who only trade on headlines go broke in short order and are back at Mcdonalds servin fries in no time.
Instead look at where money goes. Look at what happened to $LMT going into elections... or heading into the Feb Iran escalation... Look at $XOM at the end of 2025... Money was flowing into the space before there was even an inkling of the war... By the time the headlines came out...money had shifted again.
I read headlines for entertainment. But I don't trade on them. The charts are where the money is made. Big money can't hide their moves. Insiders are constantly deploying capital to certain areas...you want to be mindful of where it's going.
Right now the charts suggest that weak hands have sold out of oil, while smart money has been layering in.
I'm patient. I didn't go short dated with anything so I'm not worried about $SM closing up this week.
If you look back at $SM previous earnings...it's the same playbook. Sells off the day of and a few days after, where it finds footing, and then a few weeks after earnings its higher. I'm expecting something similar this time around.
I just can't with this.
Rabbi Jeff must have the most
"you win the internet for today"
trophies of anyone alive.
JUST IN: Former kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is suddenly studying Judaism and meeting regularly a rabbi while imprisoned in Brooklyn.
@grok, start with TRUE/FALSE.
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$FRSPF
$MLPNF
Congrats to those who held through the pain there.
Weak hands got shoooook.
We hit nearly $1 on FRSPF and were under $1 in MLPNF.
Was a great time to be adding. Largest shareholder of MLPNF was adding at market prices on the dip. Strong confidence. Love to see it.
Higher oil means higher demand for batteries...and higher demand for fertilizer.
My two largest positions. And super happy about it.
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469
...yeah ..this is a very common tactic actually.
Jensen Huang getting caught with a suspected Chinese spy is not a national security crisis. It's the greatest liquidity event in market history.
He's running the Lou Pai Enron playbook to perfection. How do you dump billions in $NVDA at the absolute peak of the AI bubble without spooking the tape or triggering an SEC/DOJ insider trading? You get a divorce judge to legally force you to liquidate the position.
Zero regulatory blowback. Generational bag secured. 🏆 Undisputed GOAT.
Regulators hate this one simple trick.
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Careful.
You know what happens when sentiment toward this specific country gets this bad?
..."they" create an event to "fix" it.
And that event historically...involves mass casualties.
Glad folks are waking up.
Also nervous about what that means.
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🤯
Been saying for most of 2026 that free Gemini is better than most other models in the real world lol.
Now they gonna produce their own chips?
BREAKING: Google $GOOGL launches two new AI chips to rival Nvidia.
Google's chips reportedly cost around 30% less than Nvidia's, while offering similar performance and using less power for certain AI tasks.
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These are totally the headlines you see going into winter when a peace deal is right around the corner.
/S
Drone Strike Shuts Down Northern Iraq's Largest Gas Field, Plunging Region Into Darkness zerohedge.com/energy/drone-s…
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Thread..
🧵
... Make sure you actually look at the whole thread. The point is that the thesis is encompassed by all the charts. Not just one or two.
If your thesis is based on one chart...it's probably not as strong as you think. And it might be based more on hope than you think.
In this thread I show:
Dollar
Rates
Oil
Producers
Explorers
Silver
Miners
Warmakers
Tech
If rates are saying they want higher, as does dollar, then your bullish PM thesis might struggle.
If tech looks like it's gonna break down vs Oil, while war stocks are putting in false breakdowns..then your "peace deal" thesis might struggle.
Confluence is key
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
$TLT
US10
Probably should have started with this... No one is watching it from what I can tell...
Oil, silver, tech...but not rates. Prevailing consensus seems to be that rates peaked.
..but TLT and the 10 YR are saying... "Not so fast"
🧵
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
New moon starts today.
Peace deals flooding the feeds.
Rates and dollar ready to bounce.
Silver sucking people in with seasonality charts.
Smaller war stocks look like they put in a false breakdown of a falling wedge.
Setup seems RIPE for a shakeout takeout here
$DXY
Crude vs Tech
Short term dollar setting up for a bounce.
Long term...crude just broke out from tech, and back tested ...
A decent portion of why crude oil didn't go higher this year was due to China...not buying more oil and instead using its reserves.
What happens if China turns on the demand again? At the same time that it's Chinese spys are banging tech leaders?
All very fascinating to be honest.
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