donnerss

I can see all of Fintwit back to hurling insults at each other again, so I figured I’d share my view and try to be a voice of reason, even if I end up being wrong. It’s my job to stick my neck out. I’ve been doing it for years, and I’m still here. For what it’s worth, I think Bitcoin is forming another broadening wedge pattern, which is typically a bullish setup (chart 1). We’ve seen plenty of these in the past, and right now we’re testing the lower boundary of support. Another thing to note is that this bull market is officially 2 standard deviations oversold on the log regression channel (chart 2). Unless the bull market is over, which is not our view, these levels are about as good an opportunity as you’re going to get to add to this market. Also worth pointing out, Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands have only been this tight three other times in its entire history (chart 3)… What does that mean? We’re in a mega low-vol environment… Right now, the bands are as tight as they were in September 2023, just before a 200% rally. That move lasted from September through March 2024, with a 20% correction in January before prices rallied another 90%. The next chart shows the last three times Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bandwidth was less than or equal to 22, along with the forward twelve-month returns (chart 4). The sample size is small, but the results have been extremely positive… It’s the classic beach-ball-underwater dynamic. The harder you push it down, the more explosive the move when it finally breaks free. All in all, we need to do better when times are tough. It’s not just your hopes and dreams caught up in this trade, it’s ours too. Fintwit can be powerful when you follow the right people who are genuinely trying to help. We’re not gurus, but we’ve been doing this a long time, built comprehensive frameworks, and we’re doing our best to share what we’ve learned. At the same time, there’s a ton of poison and hate out there. Avoid it. When times get rough, we should rally around each other and stay focused on the big picture. This is a 70-vol asset. If you can’t handle that level of volatility, this asset class might not be for you. If you don’t believe in crypto and the life-changing tech it brings, it’s hard to stomach the swings. The only way to survive this kind of volatility is to extend your time horizon. When you think in days or weeks, every move feels like life or death. When you think in months or years, it all fades into noise. Once you stop fighting volatility and start embracing it as a feature of this space, everything changes. Volatility turns into opportunity. It’s a gift that lets you add to your conviction. Our view remains that Q4, once the dust settles, will be bullish, and we’ve done a ton of work to support that view. That’s the best I can leave you with on days like this. Good luck out there…