Elroy

Nasdaq (QQQ) dead on the monthly and weekly lows, triggering a head and shoulders. Dangerous, but last two Fridays it has made a new low, gets everyone bearish and then bounces on Monday.

I think the key is to position early when there is an edge. Then just fingers crossed and manage the position when the numbers are released. Some of the best trades set up afterwards.

Today is setting up almost exactly like last week's META/TSLA earnings, with Friday's new low and weak close, Monday's gap up and recovery, Tuesday's consolidation, and now Wednesday looking strong. Not only does the daily chart look similar, but the weekly chart has the same pattern as it had last Wednesday, and the size of the recovery is almost identical. So, if the technicals are almost exactly the same, can we expect a different outcome?

Equal weighted SPX (RSP) is green today. This was my call at the lows a few weeks back

Today's Daily Edge updates the long-term charts, proposes a path into the midterms, updates oil, QQQ and SOXX, and said this about today: "There should be a few swings in this range and the simple view says that the first leg up is complete at 7723 and a dip should set up a second leg to exceed it. The 7680s should really hold a downside spike at the open for that to play out" matrixdailyedge.substack.com…

Semis / SOXX update. So, it was a complete ABC rally after all?! Potentially bearish, but various options in this range. Support at $538-540

Last week I talked about a turnaround in breadth. Is this this this the start? ADL cumulative breakout.

I've been tracking a Nasdaq comparison that projected the break to new highs, called the island top, called the breakdown back past the June high, and called the bounce from yesterday's gap fill. It's an unusual sequence of events, but has happened before!

A Friday challenge for any Elliott Wave nerds (like me). There are some patterns on major markets that seemingly cannot be counted according to the rules. Here's one on the Nasdaq from 2019-2020. So, what's the count?

From "to the moon" on Tuesday to "top is in" on Wednesday AM. Pays to keep a level head while the games play out.

Here's the very bullish set up on the Nasdaq (QQQ). Optimistic? Realistic? Well, don't let opinions on the backdrop get in the way. The main thing is to know when the view gets challenged and where it flips bearish.

Today's Daily Edge noted that Tuesday's SPX breakout wasn't clean and there could be some "games" around the all-time high of 7816....Let the games commence ;)

Semis (SOXX) has now reached equal legs from the July bottom at $598. Is it a complete ABC or will it keep going? A key question for broader market. Chart below is from September lows just before the breakout

Alphabet (GOOGL) weekly wound tight. Imagine if this thing breaks out in wave V?

Nasdaq (QQQ). This looks a little too bullish given previous gains and distance away from the 200wk MA. Not that I'm going to fade (actually I have a double position in tech (VGT)), but perhaps this rally will be slower than others.

Every quarter this year has started with a USD / DXY drop and ended with a rally. Q4 seems set for the same as the weekly runs into the 200SMA.

This S&P500 fractal keeps going. It projected the 61% retrace to 7616 and Friday's gap up. But it can't keep going forever and a new phase is due in the next week or so.

This week could see yields start the topping process, and yield-sensitive stocks start to recover. Watch for breadth to improve.