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Joined March 2011
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Lots of persons are learning about vesting schedules of stocks post IPO's over the last few fews. All of these companies are 1/100th the size of OpenAI and Anthropic. Vesting schedules of the labs over 2027 and 2028 will bring the downshift
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AI bubble isn't close yet. Market high's happening in 2027 however post frontier lab ipo's with stock release schedules
30-50% more upside in SPX from here the next 6-12 months
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Growing up "making six figures" meant you were crushing it. That amount has doubled in twenty five years.
Woof.
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The get rich investment over the next 12-18 months is AI inference. Set up your own open source model. Understand the top ways to invest in this area
Study AI inference a minimum 25 hours over the next few weeks and reap the benefits by the end of 2027.
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Just finished Milton Friedman's 'Free To Choose' Audible book.... spectacular.
“If economic power is joined to political power, concentration seems almost inevitable. On the other hand, if economic power is kept in separate hands from political power, it can serve as a check and a counter to political power.”
— Milton Friedman
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Harry Potter rare collectibles (particularly the 90's first edition books) will be the next Pokemon Cards over the next half decade
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Wicked 🌽 weekly close paired with a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Warsh last week. Perhaps a mid-September rate hike to send equities and the Satoshi coin to its final lows between $48-$52k in October before the dollar debasement cycle to $250k plus begins. Weekly close above the 50 week SMA at $82.5k invalidates this
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The cities and states with the most abundance over the next 25-50 years will be rife with data centers
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Clear as day OpenAI (ChatGPT) while were the first mover back in 2022 will not be amongst the Top Two in marketshare in models by the end of the decade. Anthropic (Claude), SpaceX (Grok) will be the stalwarts along with Open Source.
After the market bust I wouldn't be shocked to see OpenAI have less than 5% marketshare come 2030.
We’re sorry to see that OpenAI put out a note saying they plan to block Cursor users from accessing OpenAI models in three months.
OpenAI models serve about 5% of Cursor user traffic, and we’re speaking with the OpenAI team to resolve this.
Cursor was one of the very first users of OpenAI, we’ve worked closely with their team for years, and we’ve trusted their platform to be neutral infrastructure for our business.
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The Cantillon Effect
USD is dead by the end of the decade. The debasement trade in real assets gold, silver, bitcoin and more has begun.
Since 1990, the cost of living in America has exploded.
- Home: $123K to $411K
- College: $1,900 to $29,600 a year
- Health insurance: $3K to $25K
- New car: $15K to $48K
- Rent: $450 to $1,600
Income didn't keep up
I will be exposing the system and what it did to America.
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$SPX has been around since 1871 and just had its EIGHTH straight green six month candle (working on it's ninth now July '22 to Present). The only ever time in its 150 year history there has been eight plus green six month candles was from July '94 to July '99 when there was eleven before a 50% pullback.
The peak high in it's January '00 candle of $1552 did not see a single candle close above it until January '13 or 13 years later.
History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.
We are in the end game now ⌛️
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One thing to note. The $SPX hasn't had a close below the 50 6M MA since July of '43. Every other time a major pullback of 50% plus that has happened the 50 6M MA has not only been touched, but acted as support.
In fact, the 50 6M MA has only been touched twice since 1943; the first time in 1974 and the second time in 2009.
Currently sits at $2,620 today.
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More data than open-source AI is taking share from OpenAI and Anthropic. Open source has gone from 28% token share to 62% token share @vercel over the last 2 months. Chart from @rauchg
Super impressive given that the sum of OpenAI and Anthropic accelerated in July. So net token/AI infra demand accelerated even more than the acceleration we saw at the frontier. And suspect Grok growing even faster than open-source and we saw some of this in the @tryramp data.
Open-source AI taking share is positive for AI infrastructure demand as it lowers margins at the model layer and an open-source token costs just as much compute to produce as a frontier token. Nothing about open-source AI inference is “free.”
Most likely end state IMO is that closed, frontier tokens are 60-90% of economic value but only 15 to 25% of tokens.
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Already said this once, but the inflation chapter alone is worth it (Chapter 5).
The Fourth Turning is here.
A+ book.
My new book 2029: The End of America hit 10,000 copies sold today.
Not bad for 4 months since its release on Amazon KDP. If you bought a copy, many thanks.
If you haven't read it yet, please look at the bond market. It is trying to warn you. No, you can't completely avoid what's coming. But you can prepare for it.
Would love to get as many suggestions / comments as possible on the book because I'm going to publish a new edition by the end of the year. Won't be a new book, just updating the critical models and prices to keep it current. But will take the opportunity to make edits too.
amazon.com/dp/B0GX2XFX4V
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The market rides on Anthropic's IPO and earnings which have x10 each year over the last three years. The moment that slows down likely in the end of Q4 or Q1 2027 the party is over.
Ray Dalio says he sees the classic signs of a bubble with AI, says the stock market looks like the run up to 1929 or 2000.
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