The United States cannot allow even nominal Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz because of the dangerous precedent this would set. Ships and aircraft of all states enjoy the right of unimpeded transit passage through such straits. If Iran is allowed to violate this principle, it would become the arbiter of maritime traffic through the Persian Gulf and would undermine rules governing international navigation through more than 200 straits worldwide. buff.ly/su2yjyU

🆕 Asylum and the Rise of Reform UK by Theodore King-Pollet buff.ly/RKReLe0

🆕 How the Gamification of the Battlefield is Reshaping War by @beehner_lionel and Oleskii Poltorakov #OrbisJournal buff.ly/7D3REpT

In his latest analysis for The New Region, @MohammedASalih outlines the logic behind what appears to be a US shift in policy toward Iraq. In Iraq, cabinet appointees signal a stance toward either Iran or the United States. Despite months of US pressure against Iran-backed figures, numerous were appointed. Salih explains that the US might be more accommodating to this move based on hopes that members from Iran-backed factions will adopt a more moderate policy. buff.ly/xQQq9hZ

A serious strategy for de-risking trade should replace metrics of movement with metrics of exposure. Falling direct imports from China answer only part of the question. The rest is how much China-linked content, tooling, and process knowledge remains embedded in strategic goods after they pass through countries such as Mexico and Vietnam. buff.ly/krjvF3e

In his analysis, Samuel Kramer breaks down the benefits of newly elected Estonian President Ülle Madise's legal background and its points of contention. Her work experience spans numerous ministries, and she served as Estonia's Justice Chancellor, overseeing legal compliance nationwide. Concerns focused on the role's nonpartisan nature, but Madise vowed to keep it independent of the presidency and party politics, boosting her credibility. buff.ly/v5djt57

From the latest #BearMarketBrief: - Cabinet changes elevated multiple officials to deputy prime ministers - US envoy Steve Witkoff pushed for Ukraine-Russia peace talks - Key interest rate of 14 percent remained amid inflation concerns in Russia buff.ly/Am0zJod

🆕 Saudi Arabia Expands Missile Production at al-Duwadimi by @DuitsmanMS and @Sam_Lair buff.ly/FxNpb7q

⏰️ 10:30 AM EDT | Thursday, October 29 | Kenya's Failed Peacekeeping Mission in Haiti Register for our upcoming virtual event focusing on the lessons that senior decision-makers should take from Kenya's force deployment to Haiti. The panel will highlight mission issues on multiple fronts, including funding, equipment, and intelligence, and what the future holds for Haiti's security situation. buff.ly/AC8VPKa

🆕 Germany's Defense Shift: Merz, NATO, and Rearmament by Emily Holland buff.ly/i3yjfUk

The status quo in the Persian Gulf that existed before the war may be lost for years and might never be fully restored. Even if Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon, it has gained something far more powerful: recognition as a major world economic power by its demonstrated ability to block access to the Strait of Hormuz. buff.ly/qHBOs9i

The US will try to restore the status quo in the Persian Gulf. Washington believes that doing so requires ending Iran’s nuclear weapons program and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to navigation while preventing Iranian control. buff.ly/qHBOs9i

The Visegrád Four (V4)—Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—stand at a pivotal moment in European geopolitics. Watch the joint event with New Eastern Europe to find out more. buff.ly/B86DU9T

While popularity alone does not determine competence or ethics, it is proof that Madise’s conduct as Justice Chancellor bolstered the Estonian citizenry’s trust in the office and her personally. buff.ly/v5djt57

Mikhail Mishustin, the head of Russia’s main business lobby, called the government’s planned windfall tax on metallurgical and mining firms a disguised turnover tax. This means that instead of a one-time tax on high unexpected profits, the government will impose a tax regardless of the sectors' earnings. More in the latest #BearMarketBrief. buff.ly/MSgJCqC

The United States remains concerned by the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, feels obligated to protect the Gulf States and Israel, and believes that retreating from the region would come at a high cost to its credibility and national power. Iran’s current regime has three primary aims: remain in power, control the Strait of Hormuz as leverage over the world’s economy, and eject the US from the region to pursue control of the Gulf. More on the two countries' opposing aims in this analysis piece: buff.ly/qHBOs9i

🆕 Saudi Arabia Expands Missile Production at al-Duwadimi buff.ly/FxNpb7q

Fall is a busy season for FPRI. Keep an eye on our events page for updates on in-person and virtual events. buff.ly/aNMtcyM