GIS & Election Science | @DecisionDeskHQ GovCast | Political Analysis Across the Globe
Florida, USA
Joined July 2021
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Jake Marks retweeted
With the Conley projection, DDHQ now says that there will be zero, count 'em zero, Republican-held crossover seats won by Kamala Harris in 2024.
Decision Desk HQ projects Cait Conley wins the NY US House 17 General Election
#DecisionMade: 9:19 PM EST
Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/rac…
Jake Marks retweeted
In WI David Crowley beat Tom Tiffany by 8.5 points, a 9.4-point swing from 2024, continuing Dem control of the office
Down ballot, Democrats flipped both chambers, taking the Assembly 53-46 and the Senate 18-15 for their first trifecta since 2010, per @DecisionDeskHQ
In WI David Crowley beat Tom Tiffany by 8.5 points, a 9.4-point swing from 2024, continuing Dem control of the office
Down ballot, Democrats flipped both chambers, taking the Assembly 53-46 and the Senate 18-15 for their first trifecta since 2010, per @DecisionDeskHQ
Jake Marks retweeted
In Minnesota the DFL is set for a full trifecta
Gov: Klobuchar wins by 12.9
House: 71 DFL wins + 6 leads = 77-57 (5 flips won, 5 leading)
Senate: 36 DFL wins + 3 leads = 39-28 (3 flips won, 3 leading; GOP leads 1 flip)
per @DecisionDeskHQ
In Minnesota the DFL is set for a full trifecta
Gov: Klobuchar wins by 12.9
House: 71 DFL wins + 6 leads = 77-57 (5 flips won, 5 leading)
Senate: 36 DFL wins + 3 leads = 39-28 (3 flips won, 3 leading; GOP leads 1 flip)
per @DecisionDeskHQ
Jake Marks retweeted
Despite a far stronger national environment for Democrats, Independent Dan Osborn's second run for Senate did not end up different than his first.
He trails projected winner Pete Ricketts by 6.8%, a worse margin in 2024 (6.7%).
Jake Marks retweeted
From 1994 through 2022, the president’s party lost only 2 of 54 Senate seats it defended in midterms in states that leaned 10+ points its way vs. the nation in the last presidential.
In 2026, the GOP has lost at least 4: Texas, Kansas, South Carolina & Iowa.
Jake Marks retweeted
Virginia Democrats' HB 29 map was approved by voters in April but was struck down by the state Supreme Court
Run the 2026 House vote through it and Dems would have won 10 of 11 seats. On the current map they still won 8, flipping VA-1 and VA-2, per @DecisionDeskHQ @geoffreyvs
Virginia Democrats' HB 29 map was approved by voters in April but was struck down by the state Supreme Court
Run the 2026 House vote through it and Dems would have won 10 of 11 seats. On the current map they still won 8, flipping VA-1 and VA-2, per @DecisionDeskHQ @geoffreyvs
Jake Marks retweeted
Can confirm Shane Massey was feeling good about the Senate's decision to *not* do this today.
South Carolina and Indiana Republicans drew 7-0 and 9-0 maps that never passed. In 2026, both would have backfired
SC: 4R-3D on the House vote vs 5R-2D on the current map
IN: Bayh (D) carried all 9 proposed districts for SoS. Dems won 3 seats on the current map
@DecisionDeskHQ
Jake Marks retweeted
ANOTHER INSANE MAP: Beau Bayh actually won all 9 proposed Republican gerrymandered districts in the GOP proposed map (and none were even particularly close.) The numbers here are even better than the other map, which used the House race data.
Thanks to @jakemarks42 for the data
Jake Marks retweeted
Republicans hoped to gain 14 seats across OH, NC, FL, TX, AL and TN by making them more Republican, most into Trump+10 or redder districts. Instead, they didn't gain in any of these states and LOST TEN seats across them as some gerrymanders were neutralized and others collapsed.
Jake Marks retweeted
South Carolina and Indiana Republicans drew 7-0 and 9-0 maps that never passed. In 2026, both would have backfired
SC: 4R-3D on the House vote vs 5R-2D on the current map
IN: Bayh (D) carried all 9 proposed districts for SoS. Dems won 3 seats on the current map
@DecisionDeskHQ
South Carolina and Indiana Republicans drew 7-0 and 9-0 maps that never passed. In 2026, both would have backfired
SC: 4R-3D on the House vote vs 5R-2D on the current map
IN: Bayh (D) carried all 9 proposed districts for SoS. Dems won 3 seats on the current map
@DecisionDeskHQ
Jake Marks retweeted
Nithya Raman's victory as L.A. mayor was fueled by the east side of Los Angeles. Our @uscdfelab poll showed @nithyavraman beating @KarenBassLA nearly 2-to-1 in the east and central parts of L.A. city. On the left shows the returns (from @latimes) with Raman dominating the east and central parts of L.A., and on the right is our poll showing Karen Bass had a ceiling in this part of the city.
Jake Marks retweeted
Annie Andrews ran ahead of every House Democrat in South Carolina
She carried 5 of 7 congressional districts, including 3 that elected Republicans: Joe Wilson's SC-2 (+10.9 over the House Dem), William Timmons' SC-4 (+8.3) and Wes Climer's SC-5 (+6.0), per @DecisionDeskHQ
Annie Andrews ran ahead of every House Democrat in South Carolina
She carried 5 of 7 congressional districts, including 3 that elected Republicans: Joe Wilson's SC-2 (+10.9 over the House Dem), William Timmons' SC-4 (+8.3) and Wes Climer's SC-5 (+6.0), per @DecisionDeskHQ
Jake Marks retweeted
Independents ran 8 to 14 points ahead of Trump's 2024 margin in all four states, but lost all
The most winnable was likely in Montana, where Bodnar and Democrat Bankhead combined for 49.8% to Alme's 48.3%. A one-on-one race could have gone the other way, per @DecisionDeskHQ
