PhD student @HarvardMed; Fellow @DecisionDeskHQ; Iceland, Lithuania for @EuropeElects
Joined April 2018
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Buckle up, huge thread!
In 1988, voters in Arizona narrowly passed Prop. 106, which aimed to make English the official language of the state. The AZ Supreme Court struck it down in '98, but Prop 103. made English the official language again in '06.
#Electiontwitter
rukja retweeted
In WI David Crowley beat Tom Tiffany by 8.5 points, a 9.4-point swing from 2024, continuing Dem control of the office
Down ballot, Democrats flipped both chambers, taking the Assembly 53-46 and the Senate 18-15 for their first trifecta since 2010, per @DecisionDeskHQ
rukja retweeted
There are a lot of races on the ballot this cycle, and many only became competitive late in the season, as seen on @DecisionDeskHQ.
To get a feel for how the night is going, watch these Senate races! FL and SC are quick counters and will likely be called early.
rukja retweeted
Of all of @uscdfelab CA polling there are only 2 of 7 districts to vote for Newsom over Harris in a head to head match up
In 2028 CA will be one of the most important states to win in the Dem Primary. Harris has lost in every Bay Area district polled, despite being her home turf
rukja retweeted
I'm having fun making a dashboard on Votes for every poll closing, as I finish them I'll drop them in this thread ⬇️
rukja retweeted
Imagine if some high school bros drew some buildings on CAD software then got all excited and declared software programmers have solved the most pressing problem of humanity: How to build more bulldings cheaply.
Actually, no need to imagine. Just read below.
What is AI really capable of in bio?
To separate hype from reality, we spent 3 months working firsthand with @AnthropicAI's internal research model to see if it could create an experimental scorpion antivenom.
Introducing Citrini Therapeutics.
citriniresearch.com/p/citrin…
rukja retweeted
🚨NEW🚨: A very, very detailed estimate on how every demographic is voting for 2026, for @TheArgumentMag — for both registered voters and the likely electorate.
Hispanics: D+8 -> D+26
Young voters: D+10 -> D+33 (!)
RVs: D+6.6
LVs: D+9.1
theargumentmag.com/p/the-mag…
rukja retweeted
NEW: My annual guide to November's elections is out!
I guide you thru over *650* interesting elections, & why they matter.
Judges, AGs, govs, DAs, mayors, lawmakers, school boards—& (many) ballot measures. Oh, & Congress.
Explore & bookmark! boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ba…
rukja retweeted
Neural organoid work was billed as a way of replacing animal research. But when the organoids are implanted into animals, no animal research is replaced, and we've created a type of animal with unknown welfare needs.
rukja retweeted
New paper with @johnmmurph just conditionally accepted at @apsrjournal:
Can people guess how majorities of each party in Congress voted on bills? Mostly yes.
Can they guess how their own representatives voted on bills, above what is accounted for by party? Mostly no. 🧵
rukja retweeted
Decision Desk HQ projects Aisha Wahab wins the California US House 14 Special Election General
#DecisionMade: 6:04 PM EDT
rukja retweeted
TONIGHT — We're tracking elections across six states: SC, VT, AL, CT, WI, and MN. Key races include progressive vs. moderate battles in the WI Gov and MN Senate Democratic primaries. We'll be especially focused on Wisconsin, with a live precinct map and WinCast.
rukja retweeted
On Tuesday, Arizona held its primary election. Click on the link in the reply below to find out all about what happened last night.
Rep. Andy Biggs easily won the GOP primary for #AZGov, setting up a general election contest between Biggs & Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.
rukja retweeted
DDHQ FORECAST: Our official forecast for the 2026 elections is live!
Our model has ratings for all 435 House races and every Senate race up this cycle.
Read below for links and to find out more:
rukja retweeted
Qatar drew Switzerland, Saudi drew Uruguay, Uzbekistan pushed Colombia to the brink, I’d consider all of those performances better than what Scotland has mustered so far
It’s also the most populous continent on earth with the 2nd most national teams of any confederation that gets 8 of the 48 team field, but actually earned a 9th through the playoff with Iraq who beat the next best team from South America
You’re being disingenuous to fit a silly narrative
rukja retweeted
Decision Desk HQ projects Brad Lander wins the NY US House 10 Democratic Primary
#DecisionMade: 9:04 PM EDT
rukja retweeted
Republicans keep telling me soccer isn't popular in America, and yet the Argentina and Germany football teams have such a big following in northern Idaho.
rukja retweeted
Decision Desk HQ projects Nithya Raman wins the second of two spots in the CA Los Angeles Mayor Nonpartisan Primary
#DecisionMade: 7:57 PM EDT
rukja retweeted
It's election night, and we're following thousands of elections in Georgia, Missouri, and Wisconsin.
In Wisconsin, the marquee race is the nonpartisan State Supreme Court election. Liberal-leaning candidate Chris Taylor has massively outspent her rival. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/rac…
rukja retweeted
2004 was a good year, but your Gmail address doesn't need to be stuck in it.
To say goodbye to [email protected] or [email protected] (or whatever you were into at the time), go to your Google Account settings and choose any name available. You'll keep your old username and you can sign in with both.
*checks methodology*
AI RESPONDENTS?!???!
2028 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
🔵 Buttigieg: 21% (+12)
🔵 Harris: 15% (=)
🔵 Newsom: 13% (-16)
🔵 Shapiro: 10% (+3)
🔵 Sanders: 6%
🔵 Pritzker: 5%
🔵 AOC: 4%
🔵 Booker: 4%
🔵 Moore: 2%
🔵 Khanna: 2%
⚪ Not sure: 19%
——
🔴 Vance: 28% (-17)
🔴 Rubio: 17% (-2)
🔴 DeSantis: 13% (+8)
🔴 Haley: 8% (+3)
🔴 Vivek: 8%
🔴 Gabbard: 7%
🔴 Massie: 5%
🔴 RFK Jr: 5%
🔴 Cruz: 2%
🔴 Carlson: 0.3%
⚪ Not sure: 8%
(+/- change vs Feb. 28)
——
@TPSIOfficial | March 20 | LV
tpsiofficial.substack.com/p/…
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The poll's own methodology admits 1/4 of it's respondents were AI hallucinated
"The unweighted sample of 373 real respondents was augmented with 114 synthetic (”ghost”) respondents"
x.com/JacobRubashkin…