cofounder of @lygosFinance | ex @anchorage bitcoin, markets, credit, interesting things
Joined October 2013
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Jay retweeted
The implicit assumption in the question is that higher rates help fix inflation in all contexts.
In reality, certain conditions/causes for inflation are not fixed by higher rates.
Jay retweeted
i think people underrate the degree to which crypto and ais fates are intertwined. we have even not seen the half of it yet
radical decentralized capital technology with massive incentive to keep online + uncontrollable agentic forces which directly converts capital to labor
Jay retweeted
Redundancy is a terrible allocation of resources.
But it’s done in name of security.
Without the guarantee that:
-IP is safe
-versions won’t be changed
-tools won’t be taken away
Redundancy is the only option, which means securing your token supply chain
sam: local inference is a terrible allocation of scarce resources
“a lot of people want local inference, and somehow they assume that the problem is solved now because we have open-source models, we're going to be able to run them on our computers, and so we're not going to need all the stuff in the data centre
but from a global allocation perspective, actually it's quite terrible to have everybody, like, have a bunch of the world's limited supply of DRAM sitting in their own computer and being used five percent of the time
you want maximum utilisation in the cloud if you're trying to deal with this very supply-constrained environment
somehow many people's intuition is the opposite of that”
ahhh the good old aggregate model…
sam: local inference is a terrible allocation of scarce resources
“a lot of people want local inference, and somehow they assume that the problem is solved now because we have open-source models, we're going to be able to run them on our computers, and so we're not going to need all the stuff in the data centre
but from a global allocation perspective, actually it's quite terrible to have everybody, like, have a bunch of the world's limited supply of DRAM sitting in their own computer and being used five percent of the time
you want maximum utilisation in the cloud if you're trying to deal with this very supply-constrained environment
somehow many people's intuition is the opposite of that”
Jay retweeted
Today, we are announcing an agreement to acquire ADT.
Home security has the qualities we look for in the businesses we own: an essential service built on specialist expertise and earned trust.
We see an opportunity to build on that foundation for decades, investing in its people and technology to deliver the best outcomes for customers.
Our ambition is to help ADT define the next era of trusted home security.
thriveholdings.com/thrive-ho…
Jay retweeted
Every time Google comes out with a new model it crushes every other model on every single benchmark and I know basically zero people who regularly use Gemini
Jay retweeted
A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started.
Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now.
Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue.
We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months.
Why?
Because there are far too many dynamic places to put your money that are creating MUCH more value.
Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value?
What's the point of place the BTC be if Bitcoin's Ponzi-scheme nature has gone away!?!
The viral nature of bitcoin was it's power... if you didn't own you were MOCKED!
Now? Completely reasonable, heck, SMARTER, to ignore bitcoin and place other bets!
No one is trying to convince people to buy Bitcoin anymore... the memes and NFTs are gone.
No one is saying $ BTC can change the world, because it won't — and BECAUSE AI HAS!
Just sell and shift from Bitcoin to Super Intelligence because one provides little to no value, and the other provides unlimited upside for humanity.
This should be obvious to everyone right now.
Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again.
one way to think about the frontier labs is that they are the large banks/GSIBs of AI. raised a lot of equity, but have near an order of magnitude more long duration liabilities paid with on-demand/usage-based assets.
big banks tend to need bailouts...
Feels like the next few months will be choppy but this is spot on. AI Capex has been a capital sink over the last 24 months, but as the mix shifts from equity to debt thats bullish for BTC (either via gov't stepping in or the burn of debasement).
tail risks, while always present seem more tail than ever. a faster than expected crqc (key being "expected", I think the possibility of developments here is a weight on price), and the US getting its fiscal house in order (less likely than quantum)
talked about it on @blockspace last week, but credit investors are paid to think about what can go wrong, and how to minimize downside.
hyperscalers have lots of ways to pay you back
neoclouds with an IG offtaker have fewer but still farily reliable ways to pay you back
two dudes with some GPUs might be able to pay you back, but you also might be stuck waiting months to repossess said GPUs because a rural court in north dakota is backlogged
Jay retweeted
🎯
@nikesharora has it right 2 months ago
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
some things very reminiscent of bitcoin mining bubbles of the past:
- lenders shouldn’t worry about cash flows because they can just underwrite the GPU collateral
- buy all the GPUs you can now, because they will appreciate and you can payback in 18 months serving from a colo facility
Jay retweeted
bitcoin has been the last resort buyer of energy for over a decade
instead of storing / transporting stranded residual energy which will be expensive and suffer losses - just use it to mine bitcoin
good load balancer for overbuilt datacenters
Jay retweeted
not only am i not worried about the crypto community's ability to handle the upcoming ai/quantum threat, i will venture to say that in the next 2 yrs the world will realize crypto is far better prepared for it than the rest of the internet and finance. we've had a trillion dollar *irreversible* honey pot for a decade, producing a far more battletested system and adversarial security culture than pretty much anywhere else on earth.
unfortunately now everyone will fear monger and make out every vulnerability to be a disaster
‼️ Tailscale SSH Flaws Could Let Hackers Gain Root Access Across Servers
Details: cybersecuritynews.com/tailsc…
A new security report warns that Tailscale SSH has flaws that could let a hacker move from one compromised device to root access on other servers. Tailscale SSH lets approved devices log in to each other over a private network. The report lists 11 findings in five groups.
They cover Tailscale’s SSH server, its serve and app connector features, the DERP relay client, and headscale, an open-source server that manages Tailscale networks.
The researcher tested Tailscale 1.104.2 and headscale 0.29.5 between October 22 and October 24, 2026. The most serious group involves Tailscale SSH. Its SSH server runs inside tailscaled, a background program with full root privileges on the machine.
#cybersecuritynews
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The flaws require an already-approved device in the Tailscale network with SSH rules permitting access/forwarding; they enable post-compromise lateral movement and escalation inside the tailnet, not unauthenticated remote access from outside.
tailworm.com
brandefense.io/security-news/…
tailscale.com/security-bulle…
x.com/mmaunder/statu…
Jay retweeted
Remember the chilling and prophetic warning made by Carl Sagan, more than 20 years ago, pertaining to science and technology that the general public does not understand?
I know its useful for marketing, etc but hardware wallet companies should delete customer info unless they opt-in separate from purchasing the device
We owe you an apology.
On October 20, we detected unauthorized access to our official website. After verifying API activity with Shopify, we confirmed on October 23 that a third party obtained customer shipping information. You trusted us with those details, and we're sorry we didn't keep them safe.
Exposed: names, contact details, shipping addresses, and order details (items and prices).
Not exposed: payment card or bank details, recovery phrases, private keys, or wallet passwords.
We've blocked access, fixed the vulnerability, opened an investigation, and are emailing affected customers.
Scammers may pose as Keystone by phone, text, email, or mail, offering refunds, replacement devices, or "fixes" for your order or address. None of it is from us.
NEVER share your recovery phrase or private keys, and NEVER enter your recovery phrase into a device you didn't order. We will never ask for them. Don't click links in unexpected messages. Type keyst.one yourself.
A detailed report is coming soon.
Until then, trust only our official channels. If anything feels off, email [email protected]. We'd rather hear from you than have you take a chance.
Again, we're truly sorry to everyone affected.
