Most housing headlines are wrong. I break down what’s actually happening in real time. $3.5B+ sold | 8,500+ units since 2020 60k+ subs on Substack Newsletter
Jacksonville, FL
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NAR's own chief economist said home sellers need to be realistic.
He said it could require "price discounts and other incentives to attract buyers."
When NAR is saying it out loud, believe it.
Boomers hold over half of all household wealth in America.
Millennials and Gen Z combined hold 11%.
Let that sink in.
There are hundreds of thousands more home sellers than buyers in the US right now.
Buyers have the most negotiating power they've had in over a decade.
If you're buying, you don't have to take the first counter.
Halloween through Thanksgiving is my favorite time to negotiate on a house.
The typical home sits 50 days now and 21.7% of listings have a price cut.
If a house is still sitting in November, the seller is usually ready to talk.
How much sellers are actually giving up at the closing table movewithmomentum.com/blog/se…
At 7.5% rates and flat prices, housing isn't back to normal until 2032.
If prices drop 2% a year it's 2030.
Prices have to come down.
When will housing costs get back to normal?
Possibly not until around 2031, per a new Redfin analysis.
If mortgage rates stay near today’s 7.5% and home prices stop rising, it could take about six years for housing costs to return to 2018 levels, when the typical buyer spent 30% of their income on the monthly payment.
But in about half of major metros, it could take 10 years or more, including New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit and Tampa, where prices are rising faster than incomes.
People with big stock portfolios say high prices have barely changed things for them since February.
Everyone else is getting squeezed. 56% say high prices are dragging down their finances, up from 45% in January.
That's the K shaped economy.
What this means for anyone trying to buy right now movewithmomentum.com/blog/20…
Investors and second home buyers were 20% of home sales in September. In August it was 15%.
First time buyers were 31%.
First time buyers are still competing with people who already own a home.
September sales, prices and inventory all in one place movewithmomentum.com/news/fl…
Housing isn't getting affordable anytime soon.
Tampa could take 10 years or more.
Who's buying until then?
When will housing costs get back to normal?
Possibly not until around 2031, per a new Redfin analysis.
If mortgage rates stay near today’s 7.5% and home prices stop rising, it could take about six years for housing costs to return to 2018 levels, when the typical buyer spent 30% of their income on the monthly payment.
But in about half of major metros, it could take 10 years or more, including New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit and Tampa, where prices are rising faster than incomes.
The rental vacancy rate hasn't been this high since 2017.
At the end of 2021 it was 5.6%. Now it's 7.3%.
More empty units means landlords lose pricing power. Renters finally have some room to negotiate.
There are twice as many homes for sale as there were in September 2021.
Sales are still stuck under a 4 million pace.
August and September were the two slowest months of the year.
Buyers have leverage again.
Builders are bribing buyers to close.
Pulte was giving 2.2% in incentives in 2022.
Now it's 10.4%.
In Q3 2022, PulteGroup posted a sales incentives rate of 2.2%, which amounted to $11,000 in incentives on a $500K home sale
In Q3 2026, PulteGroup's sales incentives rate came in at 10.4%, equating to about $52,000 in incentives on a $500K home sale
Chart via @ResiClub_HQ
January 2021, 36% of people said it was a bad time to buy a house.
Today it's 85%.
And 62% now blame high mortgage rates. Last month that was 47%.
Rates are the whole story right now. Full October breakdown here movewithmomentum.com/news/fl…
The American dream costs $5.32 million now.
A college grad makes about $4.1 million in a whole career.
Before taxes.
The American dream now costs $5.32 million, per a new Investopedia analysis.
But a full-time worker with a bachelor’s degree earns about $3.6 million over a career, from age 25 to 64.
Add 20 years of average Social Security, and it’s still only about $4.1 million.
That leaves the average college graduate roughly $1.2 million short, before paying a dollar in taxes.
New housing executive order.
Mortgage insurance cancellation pilot (new loans only)
Permanent title-insurance waiver on refis
A manufactured housing task force
None of it touches the real problem.
7.32% rates on prices wages can't support.
Headline grab.