Most housing headlines are wrong. I break down what’s actually happening in real time. $3.5B+ sold | 8,500+ units since 2020 60k+ subs on Substack Newsletter
Jacksonville, FL
Joined August 2015
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Jon Brooks retweeted
Moving to the middle of nowhere away from all of your friends and family is not a solution to the unaffordable housing market.
Jon Brooks retweeted
BREAKING: US housing starts dropped -15.4% MoM in May, to 1.18 million units annualized, the lowest since May 2020.
Furthermore, April was revised lower by -73,000 units from the initially reported 1.39 million units.
By comparison, the 5-year moving average is 1.44 million units.
This drop was primarily driven by multifamily starts, which fell -40.2% MoM, to 284,000 units annualized, the lowest since November 2024.
At the same time, single-family starts declined -1.9% MoM, to 882,000 units annualized, the lowest since September 2025.
Residential construction activity is rapidly slowing.
Jon Brooks retweeted
I will give you 30 minutes to accept my debate challenge on Spaces
I want to read your previous forecast and models because you're an expert; everyone should read your work
Do you accept my challenge to a live debate with your Worse than Housing 2008 Premise
Part of this is we are seeing a ton of sellers “rage quit” and take their house off the market. Some of this is seasonality and a lot of it is now.
Sellers get upset they cannot get the price they want
They want to list next year at hopes of higher prices
It is unlikely here in the south as demand is slow at best
Inventory locally has gone from 2k listings to 12k listings in 3 years
Prices are coming down
Houses are sitting longer
Sellers are just beginning to capitulate
Jon Brooks retweeted
Breakdown of the Black Friday data tells us:
-Consumer is weakening.
-95% of sales volume was financed.
-67% of that intends not to pay off within 30 days.
-Roughly $1B was spent using BNPL models which are the worst debt.
This points to a *really* unhealthy economy.
Notable that Black Friday sales data shows:
-A 9.1% increase spend from last year.
But:
-A -1% in total item volume from last year.
-Prices +7% higher.
-Consumers bought on average 4.1% fewer items.
And:
-An 11% increase on buy-now-pay-later use.
-Klarna specific use up 45% by volume since last year
Meaning:
-Roughly 11% of ALL Black Friday spending was financed through BNPL.
-And 84% of all purchases were financed by credit cards, where 67% of those consumers expect to not pay the full balance in the first month.
So overall:
-A total of 95% of Black Friday shopping ($11.2B) was financed.
-And, 67% ($7.9B) was financed on debt that consumers do not expect to be able to pay in the next 30 days.
This is the sign of a weakening and stretched consumer.
Jon Brooks retweeted
Show me a place with a large number of currently underwater FHA mortgages and Ill show you a place dominated by builder lending.
Article link in 1st reply. No paywall on this one.
@NewsLambert
@jonbrooks
Jon Brooks retweeted
The Big Bullshit Bill looks like a welfare for the rich wet dream
Major Provisions
Tax Policy & Credits
Extends 2017 Trump tax cuts set to expire in 2025.
Raises SALT deduction from current cap to up to $40k (temporary Senate cut used $10k placeholder)
New deductions: up to $25k for tips, $12.5k for overtime (expiring in 2028)
Increases child tax credit to $2,500 (then $2,000), plus a new MAGA savings account ($1,000/child)
Spending & Cuts
Boosts defense by ~$150 billion; border & national security $70–$350 billion depending on version
Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP via tighter eligibility and state cost-sharing; also blocks clean-energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act
Expands work requirements for Medicaid adults (Senate version), plus carve-outs for rural hospitals and Alaskan provisions
Debt Ceiling & Deficit
Raises the statutory debt limit by $4–5 trillion to avert default
CBO estimates ~$2.4 trillion added to debt by 2034; updated Senate version may add ~$2.8–5 trillion
Regulation & Other Policy Changes
Includes a decade-long federal ban on state-level AI regulation
Contains provisions affecting federal rulemaking oversight, withholding certain EPA standards, repealing taxes on suppressors, and restrictions on Planned Parenthood funding––some later stripped for Byrd Rule compliance
Jon Brooks retweeted
BREAKING: Elon Musk says "I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore" regarding President Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill."
Elon says "this massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination."
Jon Brooks retweeted
Re the U.S. debt downgrade, you should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt. They don't include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money they're getting (rather than from the decreased quantity of money they're getting). Said differently, for those who care about the value of their money, the risks for U.S. government debt are greater than the rating agencies are conveying.
#principles #howcountriesgobroke #debt
Jon Brooks retweeted
NEW: Metallica concert registers a small earthquake in Virginia Tech's Lane Stadium as thousands of Hokies jumped in unison.
The band played in front of 60,000 fans as part of their M72 World Tour.
According to the Virginia Tech Seismological Observatory, there was a spike when Metallica started playing "Enter Sandman," as reported by CBS Sports.
The Virginia Tech football team is known for running out to the song before their football games as Hokie fans jump in unison.
So epic.
Jon Brooks retweeted
I don't think people understand what's happening in housing market right now.
Florida now has 177,00 listings. Highest level on record.
Entire Northeast U.S. has 79,000 listings. Lowest level on record.
People are leaving Florida. And moving back north. A structural trend that will likely last years, and cause Florida's housing market to decline for an extended period.
Jon Brooks retweeted
So much of our current political and economic climate can be explained by debt cycles— and how those cycles build on each other over time.
I explain why in my new book, How Countries Go Broke.
But if you’d like more context on how all of these pieces come together, I recommend you watch my 30-minute explainer “How the Economic Machine Works” on YouTube here: youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAI…
#principles #howcountriesgobroke #economics #debt
Jon Brooks retweeted
The crypto market explained in 15 seconds
xitter.cf/papaallano_/status/184…
Jon Brooks retweeted
WOAH. Is Powell serious?!!
Reporter: What do you think about the projections of $51T in debt by 2030?
Powell: That's not our problem. My job is to remain independent. I know we're on an unsustainable fiscal path but that is Treasury's responsibility.
Reporter: would you finance that huge debt issuance?
Powell: No.
Good luck fam 🤞
Jon Brooks retweeted
3 NEW 1st Place decks have been unearthed from the 2001 East Coast Super Trainer Showdown!!! Thanks to @Pkmn_RubyRetro for finding an Instagram post from Jonathan Brooks showing off a rare poster that local game stores received over 20 years ago! #PokemonTCG #RetroPokemon
