
Lecturer @SciencesPo, Professor of International Relations and Former Dean @USJLiban, Cofounder @KullunaIrada Fellow @InstitutIRIS @TheGCSP @MiddleEastInst, ENA
Paris France & Beirut Lebanon
Joined November 2008
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📚 « Fils d’une mère déportée et d’un père militant sioniste, le journaliste Claude Askolovitch questionne son judaïsme et son rapport à Israël à l’aune du massacre de Gaza. Dans Mes mains pleines de sang (Grasset), il livre sans détour ce constat douloureux de l’après 7 octobre : « les fascistes au pouvoir », « la religion n’appartient pas à ces gens qui pensent qu’il faut tuer des Palestiniens pour que le Messie arrive »
lamontagne.fr/paris-75000/ac… @askolovitchC @EditionsGrasset
📚 "En 1968, alors que « l’Œuvre au noir » vient de paraître et d’obtenir le prix Femina à l’unanimité, la romancière Françoise Mallet-Joris (1930-2016) rencontrait Marguerite Yourcenar (1903-1987) pour un entretien exceptionnel."
👉nouvelobs.com/culture/202610…
via @nouvelobs
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
What former Mossad chief David Barnea has revealed is a shocking admission of an intelligence operation that knowingly put 1000s of innocent Iranians at risk of imprisonment, torture, and execution, all to protect Israeli agents operating inside Iran. According to @Jerusalem_Post, Barnea acknowledged that Mossad deliberately publicized footage of its covert operations inside Iran during the June 2025 war, intending to provoke mass arrests and overwhelm Iranian security forces.
“We wanted to make sure they arrested so many people in Iran that they wouldn’t be able to distinguish the wheat from the chaff,” he said.
Barnea claimed that Iranian authorities arrested 21,000 people on the 2nd day of the war. He also acknowledged that many of those arrested or executed as alleged Mossad agents had nothing to do with the agency, while nearly all actual Mossad operatives escaped capture.
Think about the extraordinary cruelty of that calculation.
Israeli intelligence officials understood the nature of the govt they were dealing with: a repressive state with a documented record of arbitrary detention, torture, forced confessions, and executions. Yet, according to Barnea’s own account, they deliberately sought to exploit those very practices, making ordinary Iranians the expendable human cost of protecting their operatives.
I think about the 1000s of families who may have been caught between an Israeli intelligence operation and an Iranian security apparatus gripped by fear of infiltration. The fathers and mothers of whose children disappeared into detention centers. The young people whose only political involvement may have been protesting for a better life. The students, workers, and ordinary citizens who could suddenly find themselves accused of collaborating with a foreign intelligence service.
For them, an arrest is not a temporary inconvenience in an intelligence game. It can mean months or years in prison, torture, a coerced confession, a destroyed future, or a death sentence.
Human rights organizations have documented how Iranian authorities used the war to intensify repression, including mass arrests and executions on allegations of espionage and collaboration with Israel.
The Iranian government bears direct responsibility for every arbitrary arrest, every act of torture, and every unlawful execution. Nothing Israel did absolves Tehran of those crimes.
But Israel cannot escape scrutiny and accountability for deliberately engineering conditions in which it knew innocent people could become targets of that repression.
What Barnea describes is not simply clever intelligence work. It raises profound questions about the deliberate exploitation of foreseeable harm to civilians in pursuit of military and intelligence objectives.
And perhaps the most disturbing part is the apparent indifference to what happened to those people afterward.
For Mossad, the measure of success was whether its agents survived and escaped detection. For Iranian families, the consequences could last a lifetime.
The lives of ordinary Iranians are not disposable assets in an intelligence operation. Their imprisonment, suffering, and deaths cannot be dismissed as the acceptable price of protecting foreign agents..
International humanitarian law does not give intelligence agencies a free pass to deliberately expose civilians to foreseeable harm. If Mossad intentionally provoked mass arrests in Iran, knowing that innocent people could face torture, imprisonment, or execution, this raises serious questions of international legal responsibility, including potential complicity in war crimes. As I said, Iranian government bears direct responsibility for its repression, but that does not absolve Israeli officials of responsibility for deliberately exploiting it. The lives of innocent civilians cannot be treated as expendable assets in an intelligence operation.
This revelation deserves serious scrutiny, independent investigation. jpost.com/middle-east/iran-n…
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
"Q. How democratic is the Israeli vote – and who is being disenfranchised?
A: About 15 million people live in areas under Israeli control. Just over 7 million Jewish Israelis and 1.7 million Palestinian citizens of Israel live within the country’s pre-1967 borders, known as the “green line”, and have full voting rights.
In the occupied West Bank, more than 500,000 Israeli settlers can vote. They live among 3.1 million Palestinians who are subject to military rule and do not have the right to vote.
In occupied East Jerusalem more than 230,000 Israelis with voting rights live among 350,000 Palestinians who cannot vote.
Two million Palestinians in Gaza, who live under Israeli military occupation, according to the international court of justice, also have no vote."
theguardian.com/world/2026/o…
🇺🇸 🇩🇪 🚘 "Le patron d'Audi a franchi une ligne rouge», a commenté le quotidien économique Handelsblatt. Transformer une décision d'investissement en argument de campagne pour Trump, un homme politique qui «nuit massivement à l'industrie allemande, y compris à l'industrie automobile», est «troublant et pitoyable», a jugé Dennis Radtke, responsable de l'aile sociale de la CDU, le parti du chancelier Friedrich Merz."
«Politiquement inacceptable» : la présence du patron d’Audi à un meeting de Donald Trump provoque un tollé en Allemagne"
👉lefigaro.fr/societes/politiq…
1/ Israel’s illiberal & ethno-nationalist forces are reshaping the country in their image. @BethOppenheim's web special maps the battle of ideas for the country’s future and what a new Israel could mean for Europe buff.ly/eTvuGls
“Pour Bardella, maintenir le déni est vital ! Sinon, c’est tout l’édifice de la dédiabolisation qui s’écroule. Pour Marine Le Pen, le soutenir coûte que coûte est vital aussi, sinon c’est sur elle que rejaillira la faute d’une impardonnable erreur de casting."
radiofrance.fr/franceinter/p… via @ygoosz
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
💥With 6 sources, NYT confirms: In advance of Israel’s pivotal election, PM Netanyahu sought for weeks to orchestrate a new airstrike on Iran but ran into resistance from the IDF chief of staff. nytimes.com/2026/10/26/world…
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
Ramon Casas, The Lazy Morning, 1900
A simple pleasure like enjoying a lazy morning becomes something universal.
Casas translates Parisian and bohemian sophistication to 1900s Barcelona.
‼️Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, in an interview with Hadley Gamble:
• “The Americans are withdrawing from the region, and the Israelis are filling the vacuum.”
• “We made a mistake by choosing Marco Rubio’s track instead of the Islamabad track. Rubio’s approach will lead us nowhere.”
• “I do not believe Lebanese-Israeli negotiations, in their current format, will produce results as long as Israel continues to occupy southern Lebanon.”
• “The government tried, but believing that the Americans can pressure Israel to withdraw is a complete illusion.”
• “Israel is seeking to erase the memories of southern Lebanon, as though preparing to establish settlements in parts of it.”
• Calls for internal dialogue based on the principle that only the Lebanese state has the right to possess weapons.
• Says the only way to disarm Hezbollah is through dialogue and possibly a compromise, with the support of Iran and Israel.
• Suggests that the British-Irish experience could serve as a model for Hezbollah’s disarmament, noting that even Margaret Thatcher accepted a compromise with the IRA.
• “I cannot accept a hardline approach toward Hezbollah if it leads to civil war.”
• “We cannot eliminate the Shia community or tell them to leave. They are part of Lebanon.”
• Rejects the establishment of cantons, stressing that Christians and Muslims must continue living together.
• Says Israel’s policy is aimed at erasing Palestinian national identity, from Gaza to the West Bank, while pursuing territorial expansion in Syria and Lebanon.
• “Regardless of who wins the Israeli elections, nothing will change.”
• Says Israeli policy is rooted in the Old Testament and biblical narratives.
• Calls on the United States to send better diplomats and adopt better policies toward the region.
• “Syria’s Druze are taking the wrong path by choosing to become a tool in Israel’s hands.”
• “If we, as Druze, do not embrace broader movements of national solidarity and Arab nationalism, we are heading toward collective suicide.”
• Says the Druze in Israel do not determine their own fate, arguing that the Israeli government makes decisions affecting Druze communities in both Israel and Syria.
• Calls for engagement with Iran, arguing that Hezbollah’s actual policies have been determined in Tehran since Nasrallah’s assassination and that dialogue could help reduce escalation.
• “The region’s crises will not end as long as Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or Israeli society believe they can do whatever they want through force.”
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
🎼 🎨 Les 10 opéras les plus spectaculaires au monde
beauxarts.com/vu/cultes-les-… “Place au spectacle ! Profusion de dorures, sièges en velours, lustres rococo ou architectures contemporaines saisissantes : à l’approche des fêtes de fin d’année, embarquons pour un tour du monde des plus beaux opéras, de Garnier à Sydney !”
via @BeauxArts_mag
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
Une troisième voie régionale entre l'Iran et Israël?
Le « pacte de La Mecque », une ambition avant tout diplomatique
un article de @DidierBillion pour le journal @OrientXXI
@odalage @karimbitar @blast_france
orientxxi.info/Le-pacte-de-L…
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
🇧🇷 “I will not accept a posh guy calling me nine-fingers.” Lula
“Halfway through a televised debate on Friday evening that was his last chance to turn around his final election, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was starting to look his age.
Brazil’s 80-year-old president was confused at times by the format and irritated at the self-confidence of his much younger rival, Flávio Bolsonaro.
But then the 45-year-old senator called Lula “nine-fingers”, a crude joke sometimes made in rightwing circles in Brazil about the digit lost in a metalworking factory accident in São Paulo when Lula was still a teenager.
Lula, who will be 81 on Tuesday, took centre stage and looked directly at the camera. “I was a minor and working at night, because either I worked or I did not eat,” he said, a stark reminder of the president’s humble origins in one of the world’s most unequal countries.
“I will not accept a posh guy calling me nine-fingers.”
It is impossible to know whether that exchange, which ricocheted around the internet over the weekend, helped shift Brazil’s election. But opinion polls taken before Friday’s debate gave Bolsonaro an average lead of 2 percentage points.
Lula won on Sunday by 3.5 percentage points.
“I think that moment did have a crucial effect because it encapsulated the difference between effort, experience and social awareness versus the opposite,” said Mario Marconini, managing director at Teneo, a consultancy.
“It gave Lula the opportunity to remind people of his trajectory and struggle without appearing to dwell on the past.”
👉 ft.com/content/629894c7-e753…
With an energetic online push and social giveaways, Brazil’s president reignited his campaign between the first and second rounds. ft.trib.al/JohYakI
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
It is déjà vu all over again in Israeli politics.
My new piece on the Israeli elections …
thenation.com/article/world/…
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
Breaking News: Benjamin Netanyahu pushed for an attack on Iran ahead of Israel’s election, according to officials. nyti.ms/4kfHDqv
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
One thing is clear, given Iran's current level of alert and readiness to retaliate, almost any military activity could have triggered a major escalation.
What concerns the most is the apparent failure to fully appreciate just how dangerous the situation has become.
We are much closer to an uncontrolled military escalation with Iran than many in Washington and Jerusalem seem to realize. And under the current circumstances, even a relatively limited incident could set off a chain of events that neither side would be able to control.
#IranWar
#iran
To clarify, there are two types of actions that could lead to a miscalculation:
A. An active operation against Iran, or against a target that would prompt Iran to retaliate.
B. Certain preparations for a strike that could be detected in Tehran, leading Iran to conclude that an attack is imminent and potentially prompting it to strike first.
In this case, my understanding is that the discussion concerns the second option: specific actions related to preparations for a potential strike. On this issue, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir expressed reservations.
It is important to emphasize that Zamir and senior IDF officials believe action against Iran is necessary. However, their position is that there is no need to act now, on the eve of the elections.
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
How 'Lula's Army' WhatsApp chat helped turn Brazil election around bbc.in/4zU8c9w
🇮🇳 In India, I Saw Things That Should Scare Trump, by @polgreen nytimes.com/2026/10/26/opini…
“For Modi, it is a stunning turnabout. For over a decade, his rule seemed durable and unshakable. His rise to power, initially inconceivable and then inevitable, was a foretaste of the world to come. Before Brexit blew apart Britain, before Donald Trump ascended to the American presidency, before an influx of Syrian refugees turned European politics rightward, Modi led the world’s largest democracy toward a vision of nationalist, right-wing populism, promising a civilizational restoration.”
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
Charles Kushner, a New Jersey real-estate developer and the father of Trump’s son-in-law Jared, became the U.S. Ambassador to France in 2025. Introducing himself to the French public in a social-media video, he said that he knew “a limited amount about France.” He does not speak French; he has never lived abroad. He served time in federal prison for illegal campaign contributions, tax evasion, and witness tampering. The last crime, a blackmail scheme that involved hiring a prostitute to seduce his sister’s husband, suggests a dubious approach to conflict management. Yet Trump saw fit to hand him one of the most coveted posts in American diplomacy, the seat once held by Thomas Jefferson and by Benjamin Franklin, stewarding the relationship with America’s oldest ally.
Since taking up his post, Kushner has earned a reputation for meddling in domestic French politics at sensitive moments. “I don’t see how he can possibly affect the opinions of the French government by regularly irritating them,” the president of the American Academy of Diplomacy said. Lauren Collins reports on Charles Kushner’s Ambassadorship and a new cohort of MAGA diplomats who are underqualified for their posts and overeager to impress the boss back in Washington: newyorker.com/magazine/2026/…
Karim Emile Bitar retweeted
💯 The visit shows an interesting form
of flexible multilateralism at play, open to facilitate mediation initiated by other regional states (Qatar, and potentially Oman) while mobilising support from non-member states (the E4) to advance its objectives.
Very important meeting today between representatives of the Mecca Pact (KSA, Pakistan, and Turkey) and Iran in Tehran.
But an invitation for Tehran to join the pact was not on the agenda.
Rather, an emergency session in which the three are requesting Iran's help to end the conflict with Ansarollah, which is threatening to destabilize Saudi Arabia.
From the Iranian perspective, KSA has committed the same mistake as Trump: Starting a war that it cannot control or end.
Tehran is willing to help, a source in Iran tells me, but Ansarullah's condition for KSA to lift the air blockade on Yemen before any fighting ends is unchanging.
(Ansarullah is focused on the air blockade, not the sea blockade)
Still, this meeting reflects something even more important, and something we and other restrainers have pointed out for years: As the US pulls back militarily, contrary to Washington's conventional wisdom, regional states are showing greater agency and taking responsibility for the region's security themselves.
This does not mean all problems will be resolved or that conflict and chaos will be avoided, but it will be their conflicts, their chaos, and their responsibility, not the US's.



























