Kathy Lam (@kathlam) header
Kathy Lam (@kathlam) profile picture

Copilot launch crew · ex-Sentry · Left the machine for the mess · Messaging + minds · 🎙️?

SF Bay Area
Joined March 2009
Photo by Kathy Lam (@kathlam)Photo by Kathy Lam (@kathlam)Photo by Kathy Lam (@kathlam)Photo by Kathy Lam (@kathlam)Photo by Kathy Lam (@kathlam)Photo by Kathy Lam (@kathlam)Photo by Kathy Lam (@kathlam)Photo by Kathy Lam (@kathlam)Photo by Kathy Lam (@kathlam)Photo by Kathy Lam (@kathlam)
What do you know that I don't know, that I wouldn't know to ask? - Jim Pyle
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The world is run by Aliens and Predators
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Would love a free trial of the ultra plan @bot
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Kathy Lam retweeted
A 67-year-old grandfather in Vermont built a trading bot during retirement - it earned him $290,000 in a single year without losing a single trade. 168 trades. 100% win rate. Zero drawdown across 365 days. The strategy is so safe it’s basically a bond ladder - but with AI doing the probability math instead of credit ratings. Here’s how it actually works: He only takes bets the model is >85% sure of. Everything else? Killed. 188 events scanned per day. ~12 pass the filter. ~1 actually deploy. AI algo waits. Most days he doesn’t trade at all. The probability model is stolen from weather forecasting: 31 models vote on every outcome. 28 out of 31 saying “yes” = 90% conviction. Below 26 = automatic reject. That’s the entire edge. Polymarket is full of 87-92¢ markets that almost always settle at $1. Most traders ignore them - upside per dollar looks tiny. The math: edge = model_p − market_p kelly = edge / (1 − token_price) size = bankroll × kelly × 0.15 The stack runs free: Polymarket Gamma API for discovery, ClickHouse + Redpanda for the pipeline, paper mode validation before live capital. Brier score 0.041 across all 168 predictions. Anything under 0.10 is institutional-grade. He’s printing the academic numbers. Most boring account on Polymarket. Also the most profitable - so save this post. And if you’ve been looking for the safest strategy to copy - you’ve definitely found it. You only need Claude + Device + 1 hour/day. Giving This Free Dm for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment What Ever you think about it. ( Mandatory ) 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me @marryevan999
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Kathy Lam retweeted
Chinese founders/investors read all they can about leading US founders. Good practice to do the same in reverse. Liang Wenfeng (DeepSeek) is one to watch. Recent moves: crossingriver.substack.com/p… Translation of earlier long-form interviews: crossingriver.substack.com/p…
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Such a great post.
"So You Want to be a VC" Im enjoying this week in Boston visiting students promoting my new book - Runnin Down a Dream. Not surprisingly, many ask me about trying to break into venture capital. I wrote a letter answering this question 15 years ago. I would send it out when people inquired. I'm making it public for the first time - with zero modifications. 1) I think it holds up well 2) make sure and read my new book also 3) I probably can't help with followups (as suggested in the letter) Hope you find it useful. Good luck!
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Don't sign on to a job just because of the company. Find out which team you'll be working on first. Lessons from #cs230 l9
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Work hard (if possible)
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Kathy Lam retweeted
Cursor is raising at a $50 billion valuation on the claim that its “in-house models generate more code than almost any other LLMs in the world.” Less than 24 hours after launching Composer 2, a developer found the model ID in the API response: kimi-k2p5-rl-0317-s515-fast. That’s Moonshot AI’s Kimi K2.5 with reinforcement learning appended. A developer named Fynn was testing Cursor’s OpenAI-compatible base URL when the identifier leaked through the response headers. Moonshot’s head of pretraining, Yulun Du, confirmed on X that the tokenizer is identical to Kimi’s and questioned Cursor’s license compliance. Two other Moonshot employees posted confirmations. All three posts have since been deleted. This is the second time. When Cursor launched Composer 1 in October 2025, users across multiple countries reported the model spontaneously switching its inner monologue to Chinese mid-session. Kenneth Auchenberg, a partner at Alley Corp, posted a screenshot calling it a smoking gun. KR-Asia and 36Kr confirmed both Cursor and Windsurf were running fine-tuned Chinese open-weight models underneath. Cursor never disclosed what Composer 1 was built on. They shipped Composer 1.5 in February and moved on. The pattern: take a Chinese open-weight model, run RL on coding tasks, ship it as a proprietary breakthrough, publish a cost-performance chart comparing yourself against Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.4 without disclosing that your base model was free, then raise another round. That chart from the Composer 2 announcement deserves its own paragraph. Cursor plotted Composer 2 against frontier models on a price-vs-quality axis to argue they’d hit a superior tradeoff. What the chart doesn’t show is that Anthropic and OpenAI trained their models from scratch. Cursor took an open-weight model that Moonshot spent hundreds of millions developing, ran RL on top, and presented the output as evidence of in-house research. That’s margin arbitrage on someone else’s R&D dressed up as a benchmark slide. The license makes this more than an attribution oversight. Kimi K2.5 ships under a Modified MIT License with one clause designed for exactly this scenario: if your product exceeds $20 million in monthly revenue, you must prominently display “Kimi K2.5” on the user interface. Cursor’s ARR crossed $2 billion in February. That’s roughly $167 million per month, 8x the threshold. The clause covers derivative works explicitly. Cursor is valued at $29.3 billion and raising at $50 billion. Moonshot’s last reported valuation was $4.3 billion. The company worth 12x more took the smaller company’s model and shipped it as proprietary technology to justify a valuation built on the frontier lab narrative. Three Composer releases in five months. Composer 1 caught speaking Chinese. Composer 2 caught with a Kimi model ID in the API. A P0 incident this year. And a benchmark chart that compares an RL fine-tune against models requiring billions in training compute without disclosing the base was free. The question for investors in the $50 billion round: what exactly are you buying? A VS Code fork with strong distribution, or a frontier research lab? The model ID in the API answers that. If Moonshot doesn’t enforce this license against a company generating $2 billion annually from a derivative of their model, the attribution clause becomes decoration for every future open-weight release. Every AI lab watching this is running the same math: why open-source your model if companies with better distribution can strip attribution, call it proprietary, and raise at 12x your valuation? kimi-k2p5-rl-0317-s515-fast is the most expensive model ID leak in the history of AI licensing.
things are about to get interesting from here on
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If you’re a parent, watch this. It will stick with you forever.
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there are not enough good devrels so i am making more. if you or someone you work with want to work on the craft in person w me and like minds, SIGN UP NOW (its free BUT you HAVE to attend in person) lu.ma/dwr2025
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🚨 MICROSOFT'S INTERNAL H-1B GUIDANCE JUST LEAKED Microsoft tells employees: - If in US: "Remain in the U.S. for the foreseeable future" to "avoid being denied reentry" - H-4 dependents: Also stay in US (even though proclamation doesn't mention them) - If abroad: "Strongly recommend you return to the U.S. tomorrow before the deadline" - Extensions/Status changes: Likely unaffected if you're currently in the US Microsoft setting up individual tracking for employees outside US and admits "there isn't much time to make sudden travel arrangements" Translation: Even Microsoft with unlimited legal resources is telling H-1B workers to avoid international travel entirely. If Microsoft is this cautious, everyone should be. When Big Tech says "don't travel" - listen. RT to warn others.
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Come on @Google, why can't you keep chat messages in recurring meetings? #googlemeet
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We’re headed to #snowflakesummit 2025 — Snowflake’s annual user conference! ❄️ 📍 Visit our booth in the Expo Hall from June 2–5 to connect with our team and learn more about how you can easily add A/B testing and feature flags to your data stack.
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Kathy Lam retweeted
We just released our first State of AI in the Enterprise report at Box. It surveyed 1,300+ IT leaders on how AI adoption is going, and what their biggest AI priorities are going forward. Here are few of the most interesting findings: * The #1 measurement of success of AI adoption is time savings and #2 is productivity gains. Despite so much of the discussion around AI being used for reducing spend in companies, it’s actually being prioritized to do more. * 70% of respondents believe that AI will reshape their industry in the next 5 years. Increasingly it’s clear that AI isn’t just going to be about workforce productivity, but ultimately industry transformation. * 90% of respondents expect to increase AI spend over the next year, and 50%+ expect that spend to increase more than 10%. Not surprisingly, companies that are seeing the highest ROI gains on AI thus far expect to increase their spend at a much faster rate. * 86% respondents cited that they’re still at the early stages or have multiple implementations but still developing. For as fast as the industry is moving, it’s clearly we’re still only in the early days of AI in the enterprise right now. Full report here with many more data points: cloud.box.com/s/lai54mzu8a7n…
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It unfortunately seems that 37signals spent the last two and a half years on a Manhattan project to reduce COGS at the expense of thus far completely missing AI (at least I can’t find any mention of features on their websites). The opportunity cost was always huge.
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Kathy Lam retweeted
This is Thomas Seyfried. He’s a professor of biology, who’s studied cancer for 30+ years. His message? Cancer isn’t bad genes or bad luck—it’s damaged mitochondria. This flips everything you’ve been told about how to treat & prevent cancer: 🧵
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A single 25–30g dose of creatine not only reversed the cognitive deficits of 21 hours of sleep deprivation, but it also enhanced brain function beyond well-rested levels. Accompanying this was an increase in brain creatine levels and high-energy phosphates—suggesting that high-dose creatine effectively gets into the brain, where it has rapid bioenergetic effects. According to @darrencandow, this rapid effect on brain bioenergetics makes high-dose creatine a compelling candidate for treating conditions like TBI, dementia, and depression—where neuronal energy failure is a common feature. Our brain requires massive amounts of energy to function optimally —and the more that the brain is stressed, the more creatine seems to come to the rescue. Episode 100 of the FoundMyFitness podcast is live; it explores the emerging science of creatine for brain health, cognitive resilience, muscle strength, and bone density. Now available on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.
Creatine isn’t just for muscles—it rapidly improves brain function when you're sleep-deprived Research shows a single high dose (0.35 g/kg, around 25 g for a 70 kg person) dramatically boosts brain creatine levels in just three hours This can significantly boost memory and cognition, even after just one night of poor sleep When you're running on empty, creatine gives your brain the immediate edge it needs
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Kathy Lam retweeted
Between the open-source datasets from @GenReasoning and @bespokelabsai plus the contributions of @deepseek_ai and @xai Q2 2025 is going to see open-source catch if not lap closed-source model companies which would have been wild to think in Q1 2024 📈🤯
This quoted post is unavailable.
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Kathy Lam retweeted
your average Super Bowl party in SF
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