Sam Baker (@macromule) header
Sam Baker (@macromule) profile picture

Research Analyst @River Author of https://xitter.gq/t.co/eNXbmiOdxw Previously Markets and Mining @galaxydigitalhq , @Citi Digital Assets

Joined September 2020
Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)
If you keep your Bitcoin on an exchange there are two doors that need to be guarded to keep your funds safe: your account login and the exchange custody system. Multi-factor authentication, device verification, withdrawal restrictions like ForceField, etc. are great features to prevent an attacker from compromising your account. However, none of these protections help you if the custody system backing the exchange is compromised, which is what just happened at Binance. Here is how River manages securing your coins internally: Hot wallet: Coins in a hot wallet are the most at risk. These coins are on systems connected to the public internet to process demand withdrawals for clients. The strategy is to keep enough coins in here to allow everyone to withdraw on-demand, but never too much that a hack could be financially devastating. River maintains a very low hot wallet balance, and on top of this we have strict internal manual approval policies if withdrawals exceed certain rate limits. Even if an attacker got through every single line of network defense and completely compromised our systems, they wouldn't be able to walk away with much BTC before being shut out. In order to ensure we always have sufficient coins hot, we have a staging "warm" wallet that is not accessible to process demand withdrawals, but can send funds to top up the hot wallet with sufficient internal approvals. However, the ultimate layer of defense is cold storage: Cold storage is a custody system where the signing keys are held offline, such that a full compromise of all computer systems could still not lead to a theft of funds. At River, we prove every month that we have more coins cold than we have in client BTC liabilities. You can verify this yourself at river.com/reserves. Our multi-sig cold storage system is designed for Bitcoin and Bitcoin alone. We are not exposed to any of the smart contract complexity that was exploited in the Binance hack. We will be sharing more in depth about our cold storage in the coming months. Some exchanges outsource custody, which effectively removes their ability to make any direct claim to you about the integrity and security of their systems. Choose your exchanges carefully. Ask yourself: “are the people running my exchange the most qualified to build a highly secure custody system?”
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In light of the recent security events on other exchanges, we want to reassure clients that River is unaffected and all bitcoin remains secure. All client bitcoin is held in multisig cold storage, never lent out, and accounted for through our monthly Proof of Reserves. Our hot wallet maintains a minimal balance, has strict internal controls, and no individual at River has unilateral access. Every client deserves to know how their bitcoin is protected. Safeguarding your savings and maintaining transparency are our top priorities. If you have any questions about our security practices, our team is always here to help. Do not hesitate to reach out.
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Bitcoin is the only major asset class primarily held by individuals. Bonds, stocks, and gold have existed for centuries. So naturally they are more institutionalized. As bitcoin matures, we expect ownership to shift towards institutions. Its ownership distribution will look more similar to gold. This is not necessarily a good or bad thing. It is simply the inevitable consequence of global adoption.
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How inflation works: In 2023, you weighed 200 lbs. In 2024, you gained 20 lbs (+10%) In 2025, you gained 20 lbs (+9.1%) In 2026, you gained 20 lbs (+8.3%) Government: "You're healthy! Weight gain is down!"
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Checking in on the fiat currency experiment.
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~1.5 million bitcoin has been lost through self-custody, about the same as on exchanges. How you store your bitcoin matters. Your keys or not your keys, doing your due diligence is your responsibility.
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1 million more bitcoin. That's how much businesses are on track to buy within five years. Our new report shows the biggest trends shaping business bitcoin adoption in 2026.
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There’s not enough bitcoin for everyone. Here’s who is fighting over the supply.
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For once, there is a real supply shock in bitcoin. This year: - Trading volumes are down 30% - Price is up 50% - 81% of the supply hasn’t moved in 6 months Our newsletter covers the details👇
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Looking for in-depth research on all things bitcoin? Ours is completely free. You can easily find all our work at River.com/research
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LIVE: BFM284 w/ @river’s @macromule⚡️ We discuss how Bitcoin gets to $840K in the next 5 years. 🔸The death of 60/40 🔸Stocks failing in high inflation 🔸The case for 10% Bitcoin 🔸(Extremely early) institutional adoption 🔸Bitcoin price multipliers 🔸Bitcoin hodl time horizons
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Bitcoin Could Reach $840,000 Within Five Years | @macromule Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:41 The case for $840,000 Bitcoin 06:55 Which investors are adopting Bitcoin? 09:22 $1 of buying can add more than $1 to market cap 14:00 The case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation 20:43 What is Bitcoin? 23:04 How much Bitcoin is too much? 25:25 What new Bitcoin investors should know 26:28 Exchange custody vs. self-custody 29:02 What would confirm the $840,000 thesis? 30:42 The CLARITY Act 32:09 Would $840,000 Bitcoin still be early? 36:05 How AI could accelerate Bitcoin adoption 38:27 Businesses are driving Bitcoin demand 41:09 Closing thoughts
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Why do Central Banks target 2% inflation? Why not 0% or any other number? This one off-hand remark during a TV interview in New Zealand started it all:
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Zcash is not "Private Bitcoin" It shipped an emergency fork in 3 days with no vote, no ZIP, no miner signaling, then deprecated its node implementation forcing everyone to upgrade That's not how neutral money works Here's the deep dive ericyakes.substack.com/p/zca…
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Here is the inflation the government won't tell you about:
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In today's WSJ, @gladstein: Even if traditional money and payment systems work well enough for most of us Americans, given the legacy of the Great Financial Crisis, we should be able to appreciate what bitcoin has given us: a world in which “transaction denied” doesn’t exist.
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What research would you like to see from us next?
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Replying to @Jason
We're open to all feedback to improve it. The core message we aim to get across is that regardless of who is voted into power, money will be printed at increasing rates. We believe your friend @friedberg has a lot to say on this.
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Here is where our $40 trillion in debt comes from:
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