Sam Baker (@macromule) header
Sam Baker (@macromule) profile picture

Research Analyst @River Author of https://xitter.gq/t.co/eNXbmiOdxw Previously Markets and Mining @galaxydigitalhq , @Citi Digital Assets

Joined September 2020
Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)Photo by Sam Baker (@macromule)
If you keep your Bitcoin on an exchange there are two doors that need to be guarded to keep your funds safe: your account login and the exchange custody system. Multi-factor authentication, device verification, withdrawal restrictions like ForceField, etc. are great features to prevent an attacker from compromising your account. However, none of these protections help you if the custody system backing the exchange is compromised, which is what just happened at Binance. Here is how River manages securing your coins internally: Hot wallet: Coins in a hot wallet are the most at risk. These coins are on systems connected to the public internet to process demand withdrawals for clients. The strategy is to keep enough coins in here to allow everyone to withdraw on-demand, but never too much that a hack could be financially devastating. River maintains a very low hot wallet balance, and on top of this we have strict internal manual approval policies if withdrawals exceed certain rate limits. Even if an attacker got through every single line of network defense and completely compromised our systems, they wouldn't be able to walk away with much BTC before being shut out. In order to ensure we always have sufficient coins hot, we have a staging "warm" wallet that is not accessible to process demand withdrawals, but can send funds to top up the hot wallet with sufficient internal approvals. However, the ultimate layer of defense is cold storage: Cold storage is a custody system where the signing keys are held offline, such that a full compromise of all computer systems could still not lead to a theft of funds. At River, we prove every month that we have more coins cold than we have in client BTC liabilities. You can verify this yourself at river.com/reserves. Our multi-sig cold storage system is designed for Bitcoin and Bitcoin alone. We are not exposed to any of the smart contract complexity that was exploited in the Binance hack. We will be sharing more in depth about our cold storage in the coming months. Some exchanges outsource custody, which effectively removes their ability to make any direct claim to you about the integrity and security of their systems. Choose your exchanges carefully. Ask yourself: “are the people running my exchange the most qualified to build a highly secure custody system?”
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Sam Baker retweeted
In light of the recent security events on other exchanges, we want to reassure clients that River is unaffected and all bitcoin remains secure. All client bitcoin is held in multisig cold storage, never lent out, and accounted for through our monthly Proof of Reserves. Our hot wallet maintains a minimal balance, has strict internal controls, and no individual at River has unilateral access. Every client deserves to know how their bitcoin is protected. Safeguarding your savings and maintaining transparency are our top priorities. If you have any questions about our security practices, our team is always here to help. Do not hesitate to reach out.
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Jason is the Peter Schiff of tech
A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started. Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now. Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue. We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months. Why? Because there are far too many dynamic places to put your money that are creating MUCH more value. Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value? What's the point of place the BTC be if Bitcoin's Ponzi-scheme nature has gone away!?! The viral nature of bitcoin was it's power... if you didn't own you were MOCKED! Now? Completely reasonable, heck, SMARTER, to ignore bitcoin and place other bets! No one is trying to convince people to buy Bitcoin anymore... the memes and NFTs are gone. No one is saying $ BTC can change the world, because it won't — and BECAUSE AI HAS! Just sell and shift from Bitcoin to Super Intelligence because one provides little to no value, and the other provides unlimited upside for humanity. This should be obvious to everyone right now. Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again.
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Sam Baker retweeted
Bitcoin is the only major asset class primarily held by individuals. Bonds, stocks, and gold have existed for centuries. So naturally they are more institutionalized. As bitcoin matures, we expect ownership to shift towards institutions. Its ownership distribution will look more similar to gold. This is not necessarily a good or bad thing. It is simply the inevitable consequence of global adoption.
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The separation of money and state.
Hey @grok, what's the solution for this?
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How inflation works: In 2023, you weighed 200 lbs. In 2024, you gained 20 lbs (+10%) In 2025, you gained 20 lbs (+9.1%) In 2026, you gained 20 lbs (+8.3%) Government: "You're healthy! Weight gain is down!"
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Checking in on the fiat currency experiment.
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~1.5 million bitcoin has been lost through self-custody, about the same as on exchanges. How you store your bitcoin matters. Your keys or not your keys, doing your due diligence is your responsibility.
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Sam Baker retweeted
1 million more bitcoin. That's how much businesses are on track to buy within five years. Our new report shows the biggest trends shaping business bitcoin adoption in 2026.
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There’s not enough bitcoin for everyone. Here’s who is fighting over the supply.
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Inflation is the most important concept not taught in school.
Inflation is so much more than what the government tells you.
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A simple proxy for success is Bitcoin's security budget rising in real terms over time. 10 years is 3 halvings away. So bitcoin's price must be at least 8 times higher (after adjusting for inflation) to maintain the same security budget, assuming tx fees stay near zero.
What does success look like for Bitcoin in 10 years?
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Sam Baker retweeted
For once, there is a real supply shock in bitcoin. This year: - Trading volumes are down 30% - Price is up 50% - 81% of the supply hasn’t moved in 6 months Our newsletter covers the details👇
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This is what makes me so bullish right now. Price isn't moving because there are a ton of buyers. It's moving because no one is selling. Now imagine what happens when we see real volume.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs had about $4.5 billion in trading volume today. Which isn't all that high considering the move in BTC itself. Even this past Friday was a slightly bigger day at $4.6 billion
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Sam Baker retweeted
Looking for in-depth research on all things bitcoin? Ours is completely free. You can easily find all our work at River.com/research
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This is extremely bullish.
Individuals are buying bitcoin at the fastest pace in years. Bitcoiners, we are so back.
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Sam Baker retweeted
LIVE: BFM284 w/ @river’s @macromule⚡️ We discuss how Bitcoin gets to $840K in the next 5 years. 🔸The death of 60/40 🔸Stocks failing in high inflation 🔸The case for 10% Bitcoin 🔸(Extremely early) institutional adoption 🔸Bitcoin price multipliers 🔸Bitcoin hodl time horizons
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Sam Baker retweeted
Bitcoin Could Reach $840,000 Within Five Years | @macromule Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:41 The case for $840,000 Bitcoin 06:55 Which investors are adopting Bitcoin? 09:22 $1 of buying can add more than $1 to market cap 14:00 The case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation 20:43 What is Bitcoin? 23:04 How much Bitcoin is too much? 25:25 What new Bitcoin investors should know 26:28 Exchange custody vs. self-custody 29:02 What would confirm the $840,000 thesis? 30:42 The CLARITY Act 32:09 Would $840,000 Bitcoin still be early? 36:05 How AI could accelerate Bitcoin adoption 38:27 Businesses are driving Bitcoin demand 41:09 Closing thoughts
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