
@polymarket maxi & long-time trader, 2100+ markets traded since August 2024 on main. Undergrad CS! Polymarket challenge is BondSolo and ReinforcementLearning
Joined November 2021
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MeusterMint retweeted
Special elections are quirky and not necessarily projectable re: a general election.
That said, a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed. Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms.
MeusterMint retweeted
Last night was special.
Election days just never get old for us at Polymarket. Watching regular people experience the beauty of market based forecasts as the results come in. How practically useful it is. How simple it is to interpret. When it clicks, it clicks.
It’s now routinely hours between when prediction markets call it versus the TV networks. The networks hold out until absolute certainty, and the suspense keeps it entertaining all night. No knock to them, but now there’s Polymarket, and many people are realizing they want to know what's happening in real time.
I know the industry has gained a mixed rap for a variety of reasons, many of which are criticisms with real merit. But I think I speak for both myself and my peers when I say we got into this because we really love the idea of markets being able to place a price on the future (e.g. Democrats had a 92% chance to take the House on Polymarket), and how that can help people better understand what's likely to happen and make decisions accordingly.
Our mission is to make sure we deliver on the promise of prediction markets, which was on full display last night. In the midst of so much noise around what we do, the American people get to see what Polymarket is really all about. Feels like one step closer to the dream. Onwards.
MeusterMint retweeted
THE HUGE WIN FOR PREDICTION MARKETS
My only take from last night. Both in the runup to the vote and on election night, the prediction markets did exactly what they were supposed to do. A big confident forecast in the runup, and incredibly timely conveying of data as it dropped.
MeusterMint retweeted
$INTC I know this meme is overplayed. But I’m trying to will it into a bottom here….
MeusterMint retweeted
NYT/Siena polls | 10/23-11/1 LV
US Senate 2026
🟦Michigan: El-Sayed +11 (53-42)
🟦Texas: Talarico +7 (50-43)
🟦Maine: Jackson +6 (51-45)
🟦Ohio: Brown +5 (49-44)
🟦Kansas: Hamilton +5 (49-44)
🟦Alaska: Peltola +2 (48-46)
🟦Iowa: Turek +1 (48-47)
——
US Governor 2026
🟦Michigan: Benson +13 (52-39)
🟦Texas: Hinojosa +1 (48-47)
🟦Maine: Pingree +12 (49-37-8)
🟦Ohio: Acton +6 (49-43)
🟦Kansas: Holscher +1 (48-47)
🟦Alaska: Kreiss-Tomkins +8 (54-46)
🟦Iowa: Sand +8 (51-43)
NYT/Siena polls | 10/23-11/1 LV
US Senate 2026
Michigan
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 53%
🟥Mike Rogers 42%
——
Texas
🟦James Talarico 50%
🟥Ken Paxton 43%
——
Maine
🟦Troy Jackson 51%
🟥Susan Collins 45% (incumbent)
——
Ohio
🟦Sherrod Brown 49%
🟥Jon Husted 44% (incumbent)
——
Kansas
🟦Adam Hamilton 49%
🟥Roger Marshall 44% (incumbent)
——
Alaska
🟦Mary Peltola 48%
🟥Dan Sullivan 46% (incumbent)
——
Iowa
🟦Josh Turek 48%
🟥Ashley Hinson 47%
MeusterMint retweeted
Marco Rubio finding out he’s the new CEO of Intel
BREAKING: Intel stock, $INTC, crashes over -22% after reporting weaker than expected earnings.
Intel blamed weak earnings on "softness in the PC market."
MeusterMint retweeted
A few years ago Polymarket had its eyes on $1B in volume annually
Now it’s $1B+ daily
MeusterMint retweeted
If you think AI is a bubble because of this selloff then I’ve got a bridge to sell you…
$AMZON CEO: even with our $225B in capex (which is a crazy number) we’re still leaving money on the table with AI because we’ve never seen anything like this level of growth….🤯
If you’re an AI investor, the next “alpha” is literally on our face right now….
So today an AI hacking group just went after 400+ banks with almost no humans in the loop. A team of agents scouted targets, stole passwords and broke into accounts. When one model refused, the system simply switched to another and the security firm that caught it says offense is now well ahead of defense…think about that for a second.
If you’re in the Trump admin or any government official in the western world or allied with the United States, you’ve got a mandate to protect your “sovereignty” and citizens. This is obviously a major national security threat and I’ve tried to talk about it as much as I can on national TV and on X.
When this attack was reported, Anthropic and the other US labs shut the hackers out. Their models run on their own servers, so they can see abuse, trace it and pull the plug.
That's the whole ballgame imo which takes me to my next point…
You can't do any of that with an open model. Once the weights are downloaded, they're out forever.
There's no off switch, no audit trail and no one to call.
A model sitting on someone's hard drive can't be revoked…which nobody wants if such attack happens.
And btw this is only the beginning…think about where this goes from here…
Today it's passwords at banks in Latin America. As these models get smarter, the same playbook works on hospitals, power grids and payment systems.
No government can tell its citizens that frontier level intelligence will stay freely downloadable by anyone (even by adversaries or terrorists), anywhere, with zero oversight.
Especially when some of the most capable open models come from labs outside US jurisdiction.
So I think we're heading toward a "know your customer" era for AI, the same way banks have to know who they're moving money for.
Expect licensing for the most powerful models, real accountability for whoever serves them, and a ban on open weight Chinese models above a certain capability level of all as a whole. It’s not so crazy to think that’s going to happen because early this summer the Trump admin banned an “American” made fable mythos model from Anthropic for its godly hacking capabilities. So if they’re going to do that for American models what makes you think they won’t do it to Chinese models? It’s a no brainer…
Every one of those rules points the same way…toward labs that can control, monitor and shut down how their models are used.
That's the new moat and it's one money can't easily buy. Compliance, monitoring and abuse detection take years to build.
Enterprises and banks will start asking a simple question before they plug in any AI: who's accountable if it goes wrong?
Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXSI and Google can answer that. A model downloaded off the internet can't…
And as public markets investors there's an infrastructure angle. If frontier AI has to run where it can be watched, it runs in datacenters, not on random machines.
Centralized inference means more demand for the hyperscalers, the chips $AMD/ $NVDA and the memory $MU and $SNDK behind them and as of today’s closing prices we think they’re totally undervalued and misunderstood.
And to be fair, open models have real value and no regulation will be simple.
The hackers used US models too…the difference is that the US labs could cut them off.
That's exactly the point I’m trying to make.
Safety after today will starts to look like the most valuable feature a model can have…limit up!










































