
General Partner @USV. Building @Supertake. Co-Founder Anchor (acq. by Spotify) and @OboeLabs. Early investor in @meetgranola, @suno, @xai, others.
Joined July 2008
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Introducing @Supertake, a new platform that transforms your unique takes on the world into real, shareable investment portfolios using frontier AI and trading agents.
Supertake makes it easy for anyone to invest in their ideas, even if they know nothing about investing.
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🤖 Made with AI
Michael Mignano retweeted
“You’re a 51 year old guy... you’re not trained to share everything with everybody [...] The first time I read that Tree had listened and journaled about our day, that was emotional, it was giving my story value.”
Grateful to Steve (and to Tree!) for sharing their story with us.
Michael Mignano retweeted
Exclusive: Tolan's AI app is used by 250K people, mostly outside of Silicon Valley.
Now the startup has raised $30M from USV, Khosla Ventures and Homebrew to widen access to an AI companion CEO Quinten Farmer (@quintendf) wants you to trust.
My Upstarts profile (link below) 👇
Some news: we at @USV are leading a $30M round in Tolan, alongside our friends @khoslaventures.
AI has changed how we work. Frontier intelligence has made us more productive, and it lets us build incredible software without writing code. But AI can be more than a really competent digital coworker. It can also be a friend.
At USV, we’ve always believed technology can actually connect with people. Tolan is the best version of that idea we’ve ever seen. Instead of a blank chat box or a productivity tool, it’s a persistent companion that people keep coming back to because it connects with them.
We’re so excited to partner with Quinten, Evan, and Ajay, and watch Tolan become a bigger part of everyday life for so many people.
Last year we launched Tolan, inspired by a vision of AI that sees you and believes in you, not one that books restaurant reservations for you.
Your Tolan shows up for you at 3am when you’re alone with your newborn. On your commute when you’re anxious about the day ahead. When you just finished a new show and none of your friends have watched it yet.
The people who love Tolan are parents. Caregivers. Moms in Dallas and Dads in Atlanta. People who aren’t trying to optimize and be more productive, but who simply want to feel seen and supported in their aspirations.
This month more than 250k people will spend time with their Tolan. Those users have exchanged billions of messages across more than 70m conversations over the last year.
Today, we're announcing $30m in additional capital from @mignano and @usv, with @khoslaventures and @rabois doubling down, bringing our total capital raised to $60m.
To celebrate, we made a short film celebrating some of the ways that Tolans show up :)
Agentic obliteration is coming.
Entire markets were reorganized around the internet in the early 2000s. Tower Records, Blockbuster, and the Yellow Pages fell, and iTunes, Netflix, and Google took their place, taking advantage of cheap distribution.
It happened again in the 2010s around cloud and mobile. BlackBerry, Kodak, and taxis fell, and the iPhone, Instagram, and Uber took their place, taking advantage of a computer in everyone’s pocket.
Now it’s going to happen with agents. Incumbents can’t simply tear down their UIs and business models to pivot. Public shareholders won’t allow it. Access to intelligence has been democratized, and categories that have historically monetized gatekept institutional knowledge will be most susceptible.
Law is obviously at risk (Harvey and Legora are exploding). Medicine will also change (Doctronic is already renewing prescriptions in Utah). And personal finance will be equally challenged.
Should be an interesting decade.
New in @Supertake: Buy the Dip. Available now for all users.
With Buy the Dip, when one of your takes' bigger positions falls hard below what you paid, Supertake does deep analysis to check whether the reason you own it still holds.
If it does, it draws from your take's cash reserve to double down and more, all within the take's limits.
Autopilot takes buy the dip on their own. Otherwise, Supertake asks you first. Deactivate it any time in your take's settings.
Enjoy!
Some news: introducing @Supertake Research. The easiest way to turn your actual research into an investable portfolio that manages itself through frontier agents.
Sometimes your insights are based on a hunch.
And sometimes, they’re based on weeks of reading: the S-1, the earnings call transcripts, the industry report you paid for, the chart an analyst posted at 2 AM, the notes you wrote after a conversation that changed your mind.
That’s often how a real view gets built, and until now it’s lived in a dozen places: downloads, screenshots, inboxes, bookmarks.
Supertake Research gives it one home, and the Supertake agent reads all of it with you.
Save your research from wherever you are. Text it over iMessage. Email it. Tag @Supertake under a post on X. Drop it into any chat, or add it on the Research page. PDFs, charts, screenshots, links, posts and your own notes all land in the same place.
Research that sorts itself. Supertake reads every save and files it into a topic, so a pile of PDFs and posts becomes the handful of ideas you’re actually working on.
Think it through, with frontier intelligence. Ask Supertake about anything you’ve saved, and it answers from your research. Ask what you’re missing, push back, and bring more in.
Make it a take. When an idea is ready, start a take from it. The take is built from what you gathered, and your sources stay attached.
Supertake is for everyone, and Research is for those of us who do the extra reading.
Available now.
What I love about this it's one of the first real examples of a dynamic UI that's generated in real time, based on a user's personal preferences, tastes, etc. Very smart and very cool.
Congrats to Omer and the team.
Bring Your Own Research. Now available in @Supertake.
Starting today, you can upload docs, PDFs, images, even hand-written notes.
Supertake uses these to help inform your take creation and agentic management.
(Try it with Anthropic’s S-1 if/when they drop it!)
🙏
Replying to @Supertake
@Supertake feels novel and is an obvious AI-native network effect.
Sharing a take is a low stakes way to test and refine your conviction.
Meet the Supertake Bot for X. Tag @supertake on any post containing alpha, data/charts, or even a strong opinion, and you get a take back as a post.
If you're already a Supertake user, it'll put the take in your drafts. Otherwise it'll reply with a public take anyone can fork.
here's an example
xitter.cf/Supertake/status/21097…
done, it's in your supertake drafts. a portfolio of 17 picks led by chips every lab buys and the rest of the field, and anyone can fork it here: supertake.com/t/hIMUxXJvbwQ
Traditional product metrics are dead. How do we measure the performance of products in the age of agents? As users shift their behaviors from UI to agentic interactions (such as via text, voice, etc.), we'll need to rethink how we analyze engagement.
For example, standard retention measurements that track whether a user comes back each week are meaningless when the agent is working on their behalf whether they return or not.
Here are a few specific metrics that will need to be rethought from scratch.
Active users: What is an active user in the age of agents? Is it someone who proactively engages with an agent? Is it someone who has a task completed for them in a given day? Is it someone who reactively responds to an agent that reaches out to them?
Frequency of engagement: Traditional consumer products look at metrics like DAU/MAU to measure how often somebody interacts with a product. What should it be for agents? You could argue that with some of the best agents, the user shouldn't have to interact with it at all while the agent is off doing work on the user's behalf.
Time spent: Historically, the more time spent with a product, the more valuable the product is for that user. With agents, we may decide that it's actually the opposite. The best experience may be spending as little time as possible instructing an agent, then getting out of the way.
Revenue retention: Normally you want to see revenue expanding over time. Will powerful agents actually result in shrinking revenue as inference gets cheaper and they need less of it to get the job done? Or will users simply hand off more and more tasks, so revenue grows even as each task gets cheaper?
There are many more implications to consider. What did I get wrong? And what metrics am I missing?
Some awesome ideas in the replies. Thank you everyone for chiming in.
It’s pretty clear to me that the internet is headed toward a new business model that we may not have figured out yet.
Consumers will increasingly outsource tasks to agents, and agents will work around the clock to execute them on their behalf. These tasks require inference spend.
The most obvious way to cover these costs is by passing them through to the user. Users pay a monthly subscription or simply pay for credits that get deducted as inference gets spent.
But with the cost of inference dropping over time, this will ultimately be a race to the bottom. Pass-through pricing will get commoditized and won’t be able to sustain margins. So startups and incumbents will have no choice but to offer a different business model.
Paying for task-based outcomes is an obvious iteration. You can imagine customers paying agents when they achieve certain goals, such as successfully booking an appointment or executing a refund the user wouldn’t have taken care of on their own.
But most tasks aren't worth paying for one at a time. The most scaled business models on the internet let everyone participate, even when they can't pay directly. This is why advertising dominated as the primary business model of the past 30 years.
Incumbents will subsidize usage dramatically over the next few years to onboard as many customers as possible. We’re already seeing this with Muse.
But the question is, how will this work get paid for long-term? Can agents adopt a form of advertising that covers the cost? Or do we need a completely new model where the few big paid outcomes subsidize everyone else's usage?
We may be headed toward a new world of haves and have nots. Or a world of abundance where everyone can get anything done at any time for free.
Great insights here.
I’ve worked as a peer with the founders of Venmo, Granola, Maven, and Udemy. No two were alike. Each gave me a different lens for seeing life and startups.
Iqram from Venmo is a true mad genius, and the most multi-talented person I know, and maybe because of this he’s incredible at instantly spotting the spark in someone. We’d often be surprised with a new teammate, hired on the spot after one meeting, and more often than not we’d end up impressed. The man knows how to place a bet. Makes him a great poker player too.
Kortina was the yin to his yang. Body of a greek god and mind of a greek statesman, and easily the most disciplined and Good person I know. When I joined Venmo he worked from 7am to 11pm every day, did a crossfit workout before lunch, and never asked anyone else to do the same, and yet we were all pulled towards it. He has led by example ever since I met him in 2001.
Chris, my co-founder at Socratic, now founder of Granola, has a clarity of mind that comes from ridding it of most extraneous things. His finances are systematic, he doesn’t angel invest, he doesn’t read the news. Instead, every year around his birthday, he camps out by the seaside and..thinks, I think. And out of that clarity comes an ability to doggedly and creatively seek the truth in the things that matter.
Chris also has a knack for making ordinary things extraordinary. We spent a month in Brazil with our team right after starting Socratic, because why not. After raising our A, we framed a panel from an xkcd comic and sent it to every investor as a thanks, and it stayed on their desks and walls for years. I hear they had a group house in Mallorca in the early Granola days. There’s a joyful boldness that spreads out around him.
Wes, our co-founder at Maven, held the quality bar at the company, and she held it high. She’s excellent with words and finds a way to produce a solid new piece of writing every week, but she always made it clear that the excellence was not easy - it was the output of a process, and we could get there too. She expects Shitty First Drafts™, she expects multiple revisions, she expects late nights, but excellence was there for the taking.
Gagan, also co-founder at Maven and now the CEO of the Horowitz Andreessen Academy, knew that you needed to make space to think big. He took three years off between Sprig and Maven, traveling, learning, and teaching, before settling on the space he was going to dedicate himself to. He told me once that I should make sure to not always be busy, or else the best ideas wouldn’t have room to reveal themselves and grow.
Gagan is not just a fantastic storyteller, he’s also a fantastic story creator. He sells a big vision, but only after doing the work to figure out what every participant would care about, how to make the deal exciting for them, how to align incentives so they go all-in, and then he’ll sit down and bang out a top-notch announcement post in one shot because he’d already spent weeks thinking it over from every angle.
A great thing about being in startup land for so long is that you get to work closely with people like this and watch them figure out their styles, grow into themselves, and try and try again.
Thanks @iqramband, @kortina, @cjpedregal, @wes_kao, @gaganbiyani.
It’s pretty clear to me that the internet is headed toward a new business model that we may not have figured out yet.
Consumers will increasingly outsource tasks to agents, and agents will work around the clock to execute them on their behalf. These tasks require inference spend.
The most obvious way to cover these costs is by passing them through to the user. Users pay a monthly subscription or simply pay for credits that get deducted as inference gets spent.
But with the cost of inference dropping over time, this will ultimately be a race to the bottom. Pass-through pricing will get commoditized and won’t be able to sustain margins. So startups and incumbents will have no choice but to offer a different business model.
Paying for task-based outcomes is an obvious iteration. You can imagine customers paying agents when they achieve certain goals, such as successfully booking an appointment or executing a refund the user wouldn’t have taken care of on their own.
But most tasks aren't worth paying for one at a time. The most scaled business models on the internet let everyone participate, even when they can't pay directly. This is why advertising dominated as the primary business model of the past 30 years.
Incumbents will subsidize usage dramatically over the next few years to onboard as many customers as possible. We’re already seeing this with Muse.
But the question is, how will this work get paid for long-term? Can agents adopt a form of advertising that covers the cost? Or do we need a completely new model where the few big paid outcomes subsidize everyone else's usage?
We may be headed toward a new world of haves and have nots. Or a world of abundance where everyone can get anything done at any time for free.
Michael Mignano retweeted
I’ve been playing with @mignano’s new app @supertake for a bit now and what jumps out at me is that it feels more like @github than @RobinhoodApp.
While many apps embrace “Speculation as a form of entertainment,” supertake is something different. It’s about getting smarter: learning, understanding, researching, sharpening and sharing ideas.
It’s also about creating portfolios, not just picking stocks, and this is a better long-term product for users.
Peter Lynch’s thesis in One Up On Wallstreet is the investors equivalent of “write what you know.” He pushes the retail investor to think about what they notice changing in their world that may not yet show up on the data.
In 2012 as a mobile app developer I saw facebook’s stock drop from $38 to $19 per share because it didn’t have functioning mobile ads. But I was building a mobile app and literally saw the day to day improvement of the ad tools and how they were improving my conversion rate. The stock had tripled three months later as others spent like i did on the platform, and that momentary dip is now barely perceptible.
The above take has idiosyncratic risk associated with one stock. A supertake would turn this insight into a thesis about not just one company, but a basket of companies, creating some diversification while retaining the alpha of the investment idea. It can help ordinary investors turn a “gamble” into an investment thesis.
It’s also valuable as an information product: in a media environment where opinions are plentiful and few have skin in the game, supertake turns calling your shots into composable building blocks of insights that can make everyone smarter along the way, just as GitHub did for developers.
Introducing @Supertake, a new platform that transforms your unique takes on the world into real, shareable investment portfolios using frontier AI and trading agents.
Supertake makes it easy for anyone to invest in their ideas, even if they know nothing about investing.
1/
This also works for any URL: news articles, PDFs, S-1s, etc. Literally anything.
Some news: introducing Takes from X, now available on @Supertake. Turn alpha you discover on X into an investable portfolio, instantly.
X is the best platform in the world for discovering real-time insights. I personally love following people like @compound248, @buccocapital, and @litcapital. But there's never been an easy way to invest behind the amazing insights shared by accounts like these and others.
Now, you can easily share any post directly with Supertake to turn it into a real, investable take that magically rebalances itself in real time.
Just send the post URL to Supertake (via the web or text message) and it'll instantly get to work on translating the post's insights to a take you can put real money behind. And it's all made possible through the X API.
It works with other types of links, too. Send it research papers, earnings reports, S-1s, or links to PDFs to have Supertake get to work translating the ideas into potential alpha.
To get started, make sure to connect your X account in your @Supertake settings. Enjoy!











