Lawyer, building a high-growth NGX portfolio from scratch. Documenting trades, breakdowns & insights. [email protected] #NFA #DYOR
Joined September 2025
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Seplat is an oil company. Most of its profit isn't oil.
Gas was about 10% of its sales in the first nine months of 2026, and 62% of its profit.
The report gives the reason: oil is taxed far more than gas.
Wolf of NGX retweeted
For anyone preparing for the next ICAN diet, I have two Google Drive links containing past questions that could be useful for your preparation.
Sharing them here in case anyone needs them. 👇 – at Otta, Nigeria
I hold MTN Nigeria. Its nine-month results are out, so here's my check-in: what's working and the costs I'm watching. 🧵
One more line from the notes. ₦80.1bn of this year's profit is attributable to an FX gain, primarily on lease liabilities (note 13). If the naira weakens, that line can reverse.
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My read: The business is growing (the most profitable on the exchange) and paying out.
What I'm watching: the tax bill catching up in cash, the ₦2.46trn of lease liabilities and the FX line on them, and the fintech separation that shareholders approved in April and regulators haven't yet.
I hold MTN Nigeria.
This is financial gist, not financial advice.
The game is the game. 🐺
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Five habits of people whose portfolios survive a bad year:
They wrote down why they bought.
They sized positions assuming they might be wrong.
They kept some cash on the side.
They stopped checking daily.
They kept buying on schedule even while it was difficult.
Four oil prices sit behind Seplat's dividend.
$50: the floor. At least 20 cents a share a year, as long as Brent averages above it.
$55 and $60: where it has insured part of early 2027's oil with put options.
$65: the price its five-year plan was built on.
$96.19: what it actually got in the first nine months of 2026.
The specials live in the gap between the last two.
I don't hold Seplat. I hold Aradel, a peer.
I think the most practical playbooks would be Dangote and Otedola.
Pick a billionaire playbook to copy:
A. Dangote: make what everybody must buy
B. Elumelu: own a bank, then buy into energy
C. Adenuga: telecoms plus oil
D. Otedola: know when to sell a business and redeploy the cash
Which fits a young Nigerian starting with almost nothing?
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