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Our Sector Timeline Tracker (STT) is updated for Q4.
This edition looks deeper into each ecosystem’s key components, mapping their timelines, supply-demand conditions and estimated market opportunities, based on cited analyst research.
A clearer guide to where opportunity is developing, when it could scale and how large it could become.
The STT is updated quarterly with the latest available information.
SANDISK $SNDK | 2027 Q1 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $11.03B (Est. $10.64B) 🟢; +378% YoY, +23% QoQ
🔹 Adj. EPS: $49.51 (Est. $46.22) 🟢; +26% QoQ
🔹 Adj. Gross Margin: 85.1% (Est. 84.1%) 🟢; +55.2 ppts YoY
🔹 Adj. Oper Income: $8.87B (Est. $8.44B) 🟢; +25% QoQ
Q2 FY27 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $12.2B-$12.6B (Est. $12.18B) 🟡 🔹 Adj. EPS: $55.00-$57.00 (Est. $53.19) 🟢
🔹 Adj. Gross Margin: 84.5%-85.5% (Est. 84.4%) 🟢
🔹 Diluted Shares: ~151M
End Market Revenue:
🔹 Datacenter: $4.80B; +61% QoQ
🔹 Edge: $5.83B; +7% QoQ, +320% YoY
🔹 Consumer: $397M; -29% QoQ, -39% YoY
Key Updates:
🔹 Forward Stock Split: Eight-for-one, effective November 19, 2026 Capital Return:
🔹 Buybacks: $5.0B; approximately 3.2M shares
Comments:
🔸 “robust and growing demand for our products driving outpaced growth in our data center business.”
h/t: @wallstengine
As many of you know Sandisk held their investor day last week on August 13th and there was a bullish reaction due to their presentation as investors gained confidence in $SNDK and it's future in the memory ecosystem.
The presentation is 98 pages which we've analyzed and consolidated down to 4 pages of the most important information which tells a compelling $SNDK story.
Check it out below:
#NAND #HBF
Vicor Corporation $VICR Craig-Hallum Equity Research
Strong Licensing Progress, Expect VPD Product
Success To Follow. We Reiterate Our BUY Rating
And $450 Price Target.
Vicor | Q3 2026 — Earnings, thesis & ecosystem read-through
Vicor’s quarter strengthens the case for monetizing its power-delivery technology through both product sales and licensing. Licensing is advancing faster; broader vertical power delivery adoption remains the next test.
Key earnings metrics:
Revenue reached $197.1M, up 37.5% QoQ and 78.5% YoY, with GAAP diluted EPS of $1.33. Gross margin expanded to 68.3%, versus 58.0% last quarter. Product revenue contributed $130.5M and royalties $66.6M.
Craig-Hallum’s thesis:
Craig-Hallum reiterates Buy and a $450 target. Its central argument is that rising processor current requirements and wafer-scale architectures could make vertical power delivery increasingly necessary, creating opportunities for Vicor’s modules and intellectual property.
The broker sees capacity constraints slowing adoption beyond the lead customer it identifies as Cerebras. Licensing provides nearer-term monetization: Craig-Hallum reports a $43M quarterly licensing baseline, although it models Q4 revenue of $188.8M as Q3’s one-time license benefit rolls off.
The royalty escalator on page 3 illustrates Vicor’s incentive for customers to license early. Higher rates depend on enforcement stages and outcomes.
What our two visuals show:
Our revenue-mix chart separates licensing momentum from product execution. Royalties supplied 67% of the sequential revenue increase, but product sales also grew 15.6% QoQ. Calculated product gross margin improved to 52.2% from 46.7%, showing improvement beyond the royalty mix.
Our backlog-and-cash chart shows the demand and funding behind expansion: $406M backlog, $513.1M cash and $53.6M calculated free cash flow. These strengthen the expansion case; converting orders into shipments remains essential.
Our power ecosystem connection:
Within our 800 VDC and power semiconductor ecosystem #5, Vicor addresses efficient conversion and delivery close to the processor. Higher-voltage distribution and chip-level VPD solve different parts of the power chain.
Our read-through is that increasing AI power density can raise the value of differentiated conversion technology, with Vicor already monetizing that position ahead of broader architectural deployment.
Outer Ninth takeaway:
The quarter strengthens the monetization thesis. The next confirmation is wider VPD customer adoption and sustained product growth as capacity expands.
Craig-Hallum’s $450 target also requires a demanding valuation—approximately 52x its 2028 EPS estimate of $8.43, plus cash—keeping execution and valuation central to the investment case.
Elite Material 台光電 2383.TW & Taiwan Union 台燿 6274.TW | CCL | Analyst Research Report Data and Recommendations
Target prices for AI CCL suppliers were lifted to NT$7,400 for EMC (from NT$6,000) and NT$2,300 for TUC (from NT$1,950); both retain Buy ratings. The 2027+ CCL undersupply view is unchanged despite PTFE, de-spec and new-supplier concerns. More customers are seeking long-term CCL agreements to secure supply. AI CCL price hikes are expected in 4Q26E: EMC guided to hikes across AI/non-AI products, with timing varying by customer; TUC's focus is AI products after smaller AI hikes in 1H26.
The AI CCL earnings revisions are material: 2027E EPS rises to NT$264.00 from NT$201.42 for EMC and NT$98.23 from NT$79.28 for TUC. Yet CCL target multiples fall to 28x from 30x for EMC and 23x from 25x for TUC, all on 2027E EPS. Planned end-to-end capacity growth in 2027 is 49% for EMC and 43% for TUC, while the CCL shortage thesis remains intact.
For AI CCL supplier EMC, 3Q26 earnings beat estimates/consensus by 20%/15%, with GM of 37.7% vs 36.3%/35.7%. The PCB laminate mix: sales rose 29% QoQ, infrastructure sales 32% QoQ; infrastructure was 70-80% of sales and M7+ at least 65-70%. For 4Q26, EMC guided to sales growth of 15-20% QoQ and GM of 38-39.5%; little new CCL capacity makes this mix/price driven. M9 CCL was a low-single-digit sales share in 3Q26, with guidance for double digits in 2027.
The PTFE adoption view remains conservative, with plans to compete through M10 CCL. Planned end-to-end CCL capacity growth is 49%/20%/14%/28% in 2027/28/29/30. Earnings estimates for the CCL supplier rise 20%/31%/44% for 2026/27/28E; EPS is NT$135.11/264.00/410.23. The CCL TP rises to NT$7,400 from NT$6,000 at 28x 2027E EPS; Buy.
TUC's 3Q26 gross margin jumped 7.2ppt QoQ to 36.9%, putting the CCL supplier 4.3/5.1ppt above estimates/consensus. The Thailand plant's GM turned positive as new CCL capacity ramped in 3Q26, with more capacity due in 4Q26. PCB laminate sales rose 29% QoQ, while M7+8 accounted for 38% of sales versus 39% in 2Q26. For 4Q26E, the CCL supplier's sales are forecast to rise 17% QoQ and GM to expand 2.4ppt to 39.3%. AI CCL price hikes are the focus after smaller AI hikes in 1H26.
The ASIC customer position is unchanged despite new-supplier concerns. Planned end-to-end CCL capacity growth is 43%/34%/11%/25% in 2027/28/29/30. Earnings estimates for the CCL supplier rise 21%/29%/27% for 2026/27/28E; EPS is NT$43.04/98.23/146.83. The CCL TP rises to NT$2,300 from NT$1,950 at 23x 2027E EPS versus 25x previously; Buy.
▶️ The key signal is that substantial planned capacity additions have not displaced the 2027+ shortage thesis, supporting continued pricing power as AI demand shifts toward higher-value #CCL. For #EMC and #TUC, the higher targets are driven by stronger earnings forecasts even at lower valuation multiples—a meaningful vote of confidence in their profit outlook.
Credit: @OptionKing666
Elite Material 台光電 2383.TW
2026 Q3 Earnings Results 10.28.2026
Elite Material Co. announced its third-quarter financial results for the period ended September 30, 2026, delivering significant year-over-year growth
Q3 2026 Financial Highlights:
• Sales (Revenue): TWD 60,884.54 million (compared to TWD 25,145.64 million in Q3 2025) +142.13%
• Net Income: TWD 14,499.82 million (compared to TWD 3,965.07 million in Q3 2025) +265.69%
• Basic EPS: TWD 40.47 (compared to TWD 11.19 in Q3 2025) +261.66%
• Diluted EPS: TWD 40.44 (compared to TWD 11.06 in Q3 2025) +265.64%
Nine-Month 2026 Performance (Ended September 30, 2026):
• Nine-Month Sales: TWD 141,226.99 million (compared to TWD 69,333.40 million a year ago) +103.69%
• Nine-Month Net Income: TWD 29,713.01 million (compared to TWD 10,911.85 million a year ago) +172.30%
• Nine-Month Basic EPS: TWD 82.92 (compared to TWD 31.23 a year ago) +165.51%
Chroma ATE 致茂 2360.TW | Q3 2026
Initial analysis, thesis and ecosystem research ties
Chroma’s Q3 result strengthens the operating thesis behind our testing research. Revenue reached NT$17.93bn (+33% QoQ, +180% YoY), while operating profit rose to NT$7.17bn (+37% QoQ, +288% YoY).
The seven-quarter trend in Chart 1 shows the progression: four consecutive quarters of sequential revenue growth, with operating earnings expanding faster than sales.
→ Two substantial growth engines are delivering.
Instruments and automatic testing systems generated NT$7.43bn (+21% QoQ), while semiconductor/photonics reached NT$6.06bn (+38%).
Chart 3 shows semiconductor/photonics accelerating into the second half, consistent with management’s earlier outlook. This supports our research’s emphasis on Chroma’s exposure across AI-server power, thermal control and semiconductor testing.
Optical testing adds another opportunity, although the combined category does not disclose standalone CPO revenue.
→ Scale is supporting profitability, despite gross-margin pressure.
Gross margin declined from 60.5% to 57.5%, but operating margin improved from 38.7% to 40.0% as operating expenses grew much slower than revenue.
Chart 2 captures the distinction: Chroma is generating substantial operating leverage, while gross margin has softened since Q1. The results demonstrate profitable growth; stronger pricing power remains less clearly established.
→ The core earnings improvement is stronger than headline EPS suggests.
Basic EPS increased 11% YoY to NT$13.34, against a comparison which was inflated by last year’s NT$3.19bn apartment-disposal gain. Non-operating income fell 95%, yet pretax profit still increased 34%.
Operating profit now accounts for approximately 97% of pretax earnings, bringing the reported result much closer to the underlying testing business.
→ Cash conversion is the main condition to monitor.
Derived Q3 operating cash flow was NT$0.85bn against NT$5.78bn consolidated net income. Nine-month operating cash flow more than doubled, but covered only 41% of profit. Inventory increased 74% from December, while receivable days rose from 73 in June to 93 in September.
Chart 4 shows that cash generation remains uneven as the business expands.
Our testing research ranked Chroma fifth overall, with a B–Price conditional assessment. Q3 strengthens the business case: increasingly demanding testing requirements are translating into larger sales and operating profits across multiple markets. Stronger cash conversion and refreshed forward earnings relative to the share price remain the next checks before revisiting that investment assessment.
Testing & Packaging research link:
xitter.gq/outerninth/status/2108…
Chroma ATE 致茂 2360.TW 2026 Q3 Earnings Results
Chroma ATE Inc. reported its Q3 2026 financial results on October 29, 2026, delivering record-setting revenue and operating growth driven by strong AI testing and semiconductor demand.
→ Chroma ATE is an Outer Ninth pick and returned as one of the top testing names in our recent testing and advanced packaging research piece.
Q3 2026 Financial Highlights: 🚀
• Revenue: NT$17.93 billion, up 180% year-over-year and 33% quarter-over-quarter.
• Gross Margin: 58%, down from 61% in Q2 2026 due to a lower-margin China battery sales mix and higher employee bonus expenses.
• Operating Income: NT$7.17 billion, surging 288% year-over-year.
• Operating Margin: 40%, up from 29% in Q3 2025.
• Net Income (Attributable to Parent): NT$5.65 billion (or NT$5.78 billion consolidated net income).
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): NT$13.34, up 11% year-over-year.
Segment & Operational Drivers: 👀
• Testing Equipment Segment: Generated NT$17.59 billion (98% of total revenue), jumping 186% year-over-year.
• Semiconductor and Photonics: Revenue reached NT$6.06 billion, up 189% year-over-year, with photonics revenue quadrupling and system-level test (SLT) revenue doubling.
• CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) Outlook: Pilot runs for NVIDIA and Marvell are scheduled to finish by the end of 2026, with mass production orders slated to start in Q1 2027 at volumes 4 to 5 times higher than pilot levels.
Outer Ninth retweeted
Looks pretty good to me :)
Imo you only need 4 European stocks to play the AI infrastructure buildout. Save this post!
$ATS.VI $IQE $SOI.PA $AMS.SW
Everyone's crowded into the US names. These 4 sit at chokepoints most people often overlook at. Here's where each one fits and why it's hard to replace
1. $ATS.VI, AT&S (Austria): the board every AI chip sits on
> AT&S makes IC substrates, the thin multilayer boards every AI accelerator is mounted on. No substrate, no GPU. Kulim plant 1 in Malaysia runs at full tilt for AMD, and Marvell was named the second anchor customer for Kulim plant 2. Substrates are now 63% of revenue and grew 93% cc last quarter, with substrate EBITDA margin at 42.3% vs 13.0% a year earlier
> Why it's unique: NVIDIA just reserved capacity at Ibiden, SEMCO and Unimicron and committed to raising substrate capacity 2.5x. That leaves AMD, Marvell and every custom chip team competing for what's left, and AT&S is one of the few Western makers at scale. Customers are literally funding its plants. Goldman sees substrate demand beating supply by 34% in 2027
> And it's the cheapest of the lot. AT&S trades at 16.4x trailing EBITDA and 9.1x the FY26/27 guide midpoint. Every listed peer is at 37x to 58x, with Unimicron at 58x and Ibiden at 44.8x. Same product, same shortage, less than half the multiple
2. $IQE, IQE (UK): the scarcest material in AI optics
> Inside AI optics the scarcest input is indium phosphide. IQE grows the epi wafers that lasers and photodetectors are built on, and it's the largest Western merchant epi maker. Lumentum went from 25-30% short in March to sold out to early 2029 this month. Photonics is now 60% of IQE's revenue, H1 sales were up 43% to £64.6m, and photonics segment margin almost doubled from 13.4% to 24.7%. MACOM put in £30m of equity plus a £15m note, and Tower signed a multi-year InP deal
> Why it's unique: it's a merchant, so it sells to everyone instead of hoarding for its own lasers, and it runs every compound material at scale. It's mid-conversion of tools from GaAs to InP, which moves £15-25m of FY27 revenue onto InP economics. Yet the stock is down ~36% from its Oct 6 peak with no bad IQE news, a director just bought 500k shares at 39.13p, and it trades at 3.3x FY27 EV/sales vs 26x for LandMark
3. $SOI.PA, Soitec (France): the wafer behind every AI light link
> Every silicon photonics chip, pluggable or co-packaged, is built on a silicon-on-insulator wafer. Soitec makes them with its Smart Cut process, and its photonics revenue is guided at 2.5 to 3x last year. GlobalFoundries calls it its "primary" 300mm supplier and it's qualified at TSMC and Tower
> Why it's unique: UBS and BofA put its share of photonics SOI at ~95%. It doesn't have to bet on which optics architecture wins, because all of them start on the same wafer. The capacity is already built and paid for, with fab loading under 60% and no new fab needed until ~2029. More than 10 photonics customers have signed capacity reservations with deposits
4. $AMS.SW, ams OSRAM (Austria/Switzerland): the next short-reach link
> This is the optionality pick. Copper runs out at ~2m and pluggables are expensive and power-hungry. The next thing is "wide and slow" links: hundreds of slow lanes using microLEDs or microVCSELs, being standardised at OCP. ams already makes 4 of the 7 building blocks, and it showed 32 Gb/s per lane at ~0.25 pJ/bit with no failures after 2,000+ hours of stress testing
> Why it's unique: very few companies make both emitter types plus the photodiodes and the CMOS underneath in their own fab. Its EVIYOS car headlamp chips have bonded arrays to drivers in volume since 2023, which is the hardest step. To be clear, there's no AI order yet. But the core business is cheap at ~6.4x next year's EBITDA, so you're mostly getting the option for free
The common thread: substrates, InP epi, photonics wafers and optical links. AI isn't limited by demand, it's limited by physical inputs, and Europe quietly owns a few of them
Full deep dives on all 4, with scenarios, price lines and catalysts, are up for subscribers on lekiresearch.com. IQE's was just refreshed today.
Chroma ATE 致茂 2360.TW 2026 Q3 Earnings Results
Chroma ATE Inc. reported its Q3 2026 financial results on October 29, 2026, delivering record-setting revenue and operating growth driven by strong AI testing and semiconductor demand.
→ Chroma ATE is an Outer Ninth pick and returned as one of the top testing names in our recent testing and advanced packaging research piece.
Q3 2026 Financial Highlights: 🚀
• Revenue: NT$17.93 billion, up 180% year-over-year and 33% quarter-over-quarter.
• Gross Margin: 58%, down from 61% in Q2 2026 due to a lower-margin China battery sales mix and higher employee bonus expenses.
• Operating Income: NT$7.17 billion, surging 288% year-over-year.
• Operating Margin: 40%, up from 29% in Q3 2025.
• Net Income (Attributable to Parent): NT$5.65 billion (or NT$5.78 billion consolidated net income).
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): NT$13.34, up 11% year-over-year.
Segment & Operational Drivers: 👀
• Testing Equipment Segment: Generated NT$17.59 billion (98% of total revenue), jumping 186% year-over-year.
• Semiconductor and Photonics: Revenue reached NT$6.06 billion, up 189% year-over-year, with photonics revenue quadrupling and system-level test (SLT) revenue doubling.
• CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) Outlook: Pilot runs for NVIDIA and Marvell are scheduled to finish by the end of 2026, with mass production orders slated to start in Q1 2027 at volumes 4 to 5 times higher than pilot levels.
Chroma ATE 致茂 2360.TW
Came in VERY high on our testing & advanced packaging research. It was #5 overall and the highest scoring B grade name- conditional on price.
A price correction to 1872 TWD passes the A hurdle, so could be one to scoop up if it goes lower 👀
Getting close.
Bernstein expects Chroma ($2360.TW) to see 2027 system-level testing demand from $GOOGL $MRVL
inference projects and $NVDA’s Vera CPU.
It also forecasts Rubin Ultra GPU testing to ramp in 2H27.
I attached the company page from my research report.
Ibiden イビデン | 4062.JP | $IBIDY — FY26 Q2 initial analysis, thesis and ecosystem ties
Ibiden’s Q2 results add financial support to our ABF thesis. Electronics operating margin crossed 30%, with profit growth outpacing revenue as demand shifted toward higher-value AI-server substrates, in line with our expectations.
Group revenue rose 13.1% QoQ and operating profit increased 23.6%. Electronics drove the improvement: sales climbed 22.6%, profit grew 34.0%, and operating margin expanded from 27.6% to 30.2%. Management cites stronger AI-server orders, better product mix and a weaker yen.
This connects with our integrated-report review and ABF economic-density thesis: larger, more complex AI packages require more substrate content and manufacturing work, increasing the opportunity for tier 1 technically qualified suppliers. Q2’s margin progression supports that relationship, although the release does not separate pricing from the other drivers.
Customer backing is also becoming more visible. Advances received increased from ¥154.5bn to ¥199.7bn during Q2, supporting the capacity build-out. These payments also explain a large portion of the strong first-half cash flow.
The guidance increase needs perspective. Full-year operating profit was raised from ¥127bn to ¥133bn, but ¥5.6bn of that ¥6bn increase is already explained by first-half outperformance. Implied second-half profit expectations barely changed.
Meanwhile, today’s ¥151bn investment announcement targets high-performance CPU substrates from FY2029, extending the opportunity into inference and agentic AI.
My initial reaction is constructive: stronger margins and customer funding reinforce our thesis. The next test is maintaining profitability as capacity and depreciation rise.
Ibiden イビデン 4062.JP | $IBIDY 2026 Q2 Earnings Release
For the second quarter ended September 30, 2026 (FY 2026 Q2), Ibiden Co., Ltd. reported consolidated net sales of ¥262,546 million (up 34.3% year-over-year) and operating profit of ¥60,116 million (up 84.6% year-over-year).
Financial Highlights (Q2 FY2026)
• Net Sales: ¥262,546 million (+34.3% YoY)
• Operating Profit: ¥60,116 million (+84.6% YoY)
• Ordinary Profit: ¥61,009 million (+88.9% YoY)
• Profit Attributable to Owners of Parent: ¥38,574 million (+74.8% YoY)
• Basic Earnings Per Share (EPS): ¥68.63 (adjusted for stock splits)
Full-Year Guidance Revisions (FY Ending March 31, 2027)
Following strong AI server orders, favorable product mix, and exchange rate benefits, Ibiden raised its full-year consolidated forecasts:
• Net Sales Guidance: Revised to ¥565,000 million (+35.8% YoY)
• Operating Income Guidance: Revised to ¥133,000 million (+114.4% YoY)
• Ordinary Income Guidance: Revised to ¥134,500 million (+121.1% YoY)
• Profit Attributable to Owners of Parent: Revised to ¥89,000 million (+39.7% YoY)
Shareholder Returns
Interim Dividend: Increased to ¥20 per share (up from ¥15 per share previously).
Ibiden イビデン 4062.JP | $IBIDY 2026 Q2 Earnings Release
For the second quarter ended September 30, 2026 (FY 2026 Q2), Ibiden Co., Ltd. reported consolidated net sales of ¥262,546 million (up 34.3% year-over-year) and operating profit of ¥60,116 million (up 84.6% year-over-year).
Financial Highlights (Q2 FY2026)
• Net Sales: ¥262,546 million (+34.3% YoY)
• Operating Profit: ¥60,116 million (+84.6% YoY)
• Ordinary Profit: ¥61,009 million (+88.9% YoY)
• Profit Attributable to Owners of Parent: ¥38,574 million (+74.8% YoY)
• Basic Earnings Per Share (EPS): ¥68.63 (adjusted for stock splits)
Full-Year Guidance Revisions (FY Ending March 31, 2027)
Following strong AI server orders, favorable product mix, and exchange rate benefits, Ibiden raised its full-year consolidated forecasts:
• Net Sales Guidance: Revised to ¥565,000 million (+35.8% YoY)
• Operating Income Guidance: Revised to ¥133,000 million (+114.4% YoY)
• Ordinary Income Guidance: Revised to ¥134,500 million (+121.1% YoY)
• Profit Attributable to Owners of Parent: Revised to ¥89,000 million (+39.7% YoY)
Shareholder Returns
Interim Dividend: Increased to ¥20 per share (up from ¥15 per share previously).
Ibiden イビデン 4062.JP 2026 Integrated Report
The Integrated Report released by Ibiden annually bridges the company's recent performance and its future business strategy.
This report requires several months to compile because it weaves together complex ESG data, board reviews, and sustainability audits. Currently, only the Japanese digital release has been made available.
As a reminder, Ibiden's fiscal calendar follows the standard Japanese corporate timeline from April 1st to March 31st. Consequently, this report references FY25 (April 1, 2025 – March 31, 2026) and FY26 (the current fiscal year).
As shareholders in Ibiden, we want to underscore the importance of this integrated report, they only do it once a year so we will not see another until fall 2027.
The original Japanese report is 74 pages, we have translated it to english and condensed it to a 4 page brief. Structured in a familiar four-section format, this summary delivers the most pertinent investor information, conveying Ibiden's strategic narrative while honouring their corporate culture.
We learned a lot about the companies journey from Inception in 1912 to present, reinventing themselves more than once along the way. I hope you enjoy and take the journey with us.
Original report:
ibiden.co.jp/ir/items/Integr…
Mizuho Report on Marvell potentially Acquiring Lumentum 10.28.2026
Mizuho sees a potential Marvell acquisition of Lumentum as a significant consolidation of AI networking capabilities. Its October 28 note cites Bloomberg’s report of advanced discussions, while stressing that no deal terms or valuation have been disclosed.
The strategic fit would combine Lumentum’s optical lasers and optical circuit switching with Marvell’s copper connectivity, optical DSPs and scale-up photonics. Mizuho argues Lumentum deserves a premium given its technology leadership and exposure to faster AI interconnects. It maintains Outperform and a $1,140 price target, supported by projected EPS growth of 152% in FY2026 and 58% in FY2027. Applying the roughly 38% average takeover premium from its semiconductor deal comparison suggests $1,260+ per share—a hypothetical acquisition valuation, separate from its formal target. Financing remains a hurdle: Lumentum’s approximately $83 billion market value would likely require substantial equity and debt funding.
The broader read-through is that ownership of critical optical technology is becoming increasingly strategic as AI networks evolve. A deal could accelerate that consolidation, but the investment case still rests on Lumentum converting its technology position into sustained earnings growth; the takeover premium implied by Mizuho remains speculative.
Lumentum $LITE + Marvell $MRVL
ASE Technology 日月光 | 3711.TW / $ASX — Initial Analysis, Thesis & Ecosystem Research Connections
Our Testing & Advanced Packaging research identified ASE as our preferred outsourced packaging-and-test company. The thesis was that increasingly complex chips create more demanding assembly and testing work, with ASE’s scale and integrated capabilities positioning it to capture more of that spending.
Q3 gives us stronger evidence that this opportunity is translating into earnings.
→ The margin improvement is the standout. Our research highlighted the need for richer product mix, utilisation and yields to turn growth into shareholder returns. ATM operating margin advancing from 15.7% to 20% is encouraging evidence of that conversion.
Establishing how much comes from pricing versus mix and operating efficiency will be important in the full review.
→ The momentum extends into Q4. Further growth and margin expansion in packaging and testing, alongside roughly flat EMS revenue, point to the semiconductor business driving the next leg of earnings. This strengthens the operating foundation for our 2027 thesis, while the larger capacity ramps still need to deliver.
→ Testing remains an important part of the story. Our ecosystem research examined how complex, expensive packages increase the value of screening and validation throughout production. Testing revenue growing 43% year-over-year is consistent with that opportunity, even though packaging is currently growing faster. The results don’t yet separate higher volumes from greater testing content.
→ The funding condition deserves equal attention. Our research already flagged capital spending and a narrow valuation cushion as ASE’s main investment constraints. Equipment spending exceeding quarterly EBITDA and the sharp increase in debt make the returns on new capacity increasingly important.
Across the testing & packaging ecosystem, this supports our focus on suppliers that can turn greater technical complexity into recognised revenue and improving profitability. It also provides a constructive demand signal for testing equipment, interfaces and packaging materials, with the benefits to individual suppliers still requiring confirmation.
For ASE, the operating evidence has strengthened. Outer Ninth's forthcoming Earnings Review and Market Intelligence Report will examine how this changes the earnings outlook, cash-flow expectations and valuation against the assumptions in our published research.
ASE Technology 日月光 3711.TW | $ASX
2026 Q3 Earnings Release- Results
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. reported record third-quarter 2026 financial results on October 29, 2026, beating Wall Street estimates driven by high demand for advanced packaging and AI-related semiconductor services.
→ As you know this is one of our highest confidence, overweight positions heading into 2027 for a long term swing and is an ER that we have been looking forwards to, let's dive in.
Q3 2026 Financial Highlights:
• Net Revenues: Reached a record NT$244,161 million (~US$7.63 billion), up 44.8% year-over-year and up 27.8% sequentially from the second quarter.
• Net Income: Attributable to the parent company rose to NT$26,996 million (~US$844.1 million), compared to NT$10,870 million in Q3 2025 and NT$21,065 million in Q2 2026.
Earnings Per Share (EPS):
• Basic EPS: NT$6.13 (US$0.384 per ADS).
• Diluted EPS: NT$5.84 (US$0.365 per ADS; or about US$0.36–0.37 on an adjusted basis), beating analyst consensus estimates of roughly US$0.33 to US$0.34 per share.
• Operational Utilization: Assembly, Testing, and Materials (ATM) capacities ran at or near full utilization rates due to rapid customer adoption of LEAP (leading-edge advanced packaging) technologies.
Segment Breakdown:
• ATM (Assembly, Testing, and Material): Accounted for 50% of total revenue, driven by surging demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) packaging.
• EMS (Electronic Manufacturing Services): Accounted for 38% of total revenue.
• Testing Operations: Provided 11% of total sales.
Fourth Quarter 2026 Outlook:
• Revenue: Projected to grow 6% to 8% sequentially in New Taiwan dollar terms.
• Gross Margin: Expected to range between 23% and 24%.
• Operating Margin: Expected to land between 14.5% and 15.5%
▶️ Earnings Review and Market Intelligence Report is forthcoming.
ASE Technology 日月光 3711.TW | $ASX
2026 Q3 Earnings Release- Results
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. reported record third-quarter 2026 financial results on October 29, 2026, beating Wall Street estimates driven by high demand for advanced packaging and AI-related semiconductor services.
→ As you know this is one of our highest confidence, overweight positions heading into 2027 for a long term swing and is an ER that we have been looking forwards to, let's dive in.
Q3 2026 Financial Highlights:
• Net Revenues: Reached a record NT$244,161 million (~US$7.63 billion), up 44.8% year-over-year and up 27.8% sequentially from the second quarter.
• Net Income: Attributable to the parent company rose to NT$26,996 million (~US$844.1 million), compared to NT$10,870 million in Q3 2025 and NT$21,065 million in Q2 2026.
Earnings Per Share (EPS):
• Basic EPS: NT$6.13 (US$0.384 per ADS).
• Diluted EPS: NT$5.84 (US$0.365 per ADS; or about US$0.36–0.37 on an adjusted basis), beating analyst consensus estimates of roughly US$0.33 to US$0.34 per share.
• Operational Utilization: Assembly, Testing, and Materials (ATM) capacities ran at or near full utilization rates due to rapid customer adoption of LEAP (leading-edge advanced packaging) technologies.
Segment Breakdown:
• ATM (Assembly, Testing, and Material): Accounted for 50% of total revenue, driven by surging demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) packaging.
• EMS (Electronic Manufacturing Services): Accounted for 38% of total revenue.
• Testing Operations: Provided 11% of total sales.
Fourth Quarter 2026 Outlook:
• Revenue: Projected to grow 6% to 8% sequentially in New Taiwan dollar terms.
• Gross Margin: Expected to range between 23% and 24%.
• Operating Margin: Expected to land between 14.5% and 15.5%
▶️ Earnings Review and Market Intelligence Report is forthcoming.
Testing & Advanced Packaging Research Results
As AI chips become more powerful, the work needed to test, connect and package them becomes more
demanding, which is creating opportunities for suppliers whose technology helps turn complex designs into
reliable products.
Our research follows that opportunity from the production line to the income statement, asking who is already earning from it, whose profits can grow over the next year, and how much of that growth the share price already reflects.
We aimed to search for scarce, qualified suppliers that can capture rising spending in testing and advanced packaging, asking whether those advantages reach earnings and cash within the next 12 months and whether investors are already paying for them.
This strengthens the distinction between a strong business and an attractive investment at a particular price.
Caveat:
This research prioritizes potential performance over the coming 1Y period and assumes entry at current valuations, using existing financial reportings, revenue, spending and margin trends. Entry prices from much lower or at different valuation multiples, change the rankings materially.
We are looking at investment potential from here, moving forwards. NOT if you entered near the summer lows or if your investment horizon extends far beyond the next 12 month period.
Many of the companies analyzed are amazing businesses and opportunities but they fall down the list because much is already priced in to their present share price and valuation. A lower entry from existing prices could offer a more attractive opportunity.
→ 24 companies were mapped and painstakingly analyzed within the testing and advanced packaging universe.
The Top 4 picks from here are:
Chunghwa Precision test (CHPT) 6510.TW
TSMC 2330.TW | $TSM
Hon. Precision 7769.TW
ASE Technology 3711.TW | $ASX
Chunghwa Precision Test stands out for its combination of expanding demand, improving profitability and room for earnings to disappoint before its investment case
falls short.
TSMC offers the strongest broad exposure, although its price leaves less room for error.
Hon. Precision is well placed in high-power testing, with cash collection the key condition to watch through the end of the year.
ASE is our leading packaging-and-test selection, but its narrow price cushion makes it the most sensitive of the four against stress testing.
Advantest and Chroma remain attractive businesses whose shares require more demanding earnings
outcomes, while WinWay needs stronger margin delivery.
Together, the findings point to a growing testing
opportunity, with the clearest investment cases where commercial progress, financial results and the price
paid support one another.
I'm attaching some charts, graphs and tables from my research (with more in the comments).
Preferred & Price qualified group top selections:
CHPT > TSMC > Hon Precision > ASE
The specialist growth group which separates strong growth from margin, delivery and price:
CHPT > Hon Precision > Chroma ATE > Winway
Broad quality platforms:
TSMC > Advantest > Keysight > Teradyne
Probe exposure group:
MPI > FormFactor > Tokyo Seimitsu > Micronics Japan
Recovery/Utilization group- Capacity must become earnings and cash:
ASE Technology > Powertech technology > King Yuan Electronics (KYEC) > Ardentec > Amkor
→ I've also attached a page in the comments that outlines recommendations by testing stage which I won't type out in the hope of keeping this as short and concise as possible (it's already very long 😅).
Top 15 Overall Rankings, Investment Grades and stock symbols:
The order is: Rank → Company → symbol
Then Grade (A/B) → Condition that is required to resolve (preventing it from a higher grade), where
grade A additionally clears the price/stress test.
1. Chunghwa Precision Test (CHPT) 精測 6510.TW
A- robust in tested cases
2. TSMC 台積電 2330.TW | $TSM
A- conditional on price
3. Hon Precision 鴻勁 7769.TW
A- conditional on price
4. ASE Technology 日月光投控 3711.TW | $ASX
A- marginal
5. Chroma ATE 致茂 2360.TW
B- price
6. Winway technology 穎崴 6515.TW
B- operating (margin)
7. Advantest アドバンテスト 6857.JP
B- price
8. MPI Corporation 旺矽 6223.TW
B- price
9. Powertech Technology 力成 6239.TW
B- price
10. Tokyo Seimitsu 東京精密 // アクテック 7729.JP
B- price
11. Keysight technology $KEYS
B- evidence
12. King Yuan Electronics (KYEC) 京元電 2449.TW
B- operating
13. FormFactor $FORM
B- evidence
14. Micronics Japan 日本マイクロニクス 6871.JP
B- operating
15. Ardentec 欣銓
B- evidence
Where:
- Conditional on price = higher share price without improved financial/operating metrics pushes the A → B
- Marginal = metrics currently just clear B grade
- Price = the business passes the operating test, but the price is too high. Resolves if the share price falls or the EPS rises.
- Operating = reported results fall short on execution or funding, resolving only through reported results, such as margin recovery, stronger cash collection or lower debt.
- Evidence = more evidence required, this is a data gap, not a negative reading.
Thematic Investment Group or Band Recommendations:
→ Growth:
CHPT > Winway > MPI > AEHR
→ Value:
TSMC > ASE > PowerTech > Tokyo Seimitsu
→ Present Optics exposure (revenue now):
Chroma ATE > Keysight > Viavi
→ Future Optics relevance/exposure (revenue opportunity later):
TSMC > ASE > MPI > FormFactor > Xintec
→ Memory relevance/exposure:
Advantest > PowerTech > Teradyne > Formfactor
As usual I will follow up with additional information and charts in the coming days. I hope this helps guide some of you in your research and investment decisions.
Samsung 삼전 005930.KW 2026 Q3 Earnings
The market didn't like it chat.
SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $146.1B (Est. $149.3B) 🔴; +127% YoY
🔹 Oper Profit: $80.4B (Est. $81.4B) 🔴; +783% YoY
🔹 Net Profit: $56.2B (Est. $64.9B) 🔴; +515% YoY
🔹 EPS: $8.58 (Est. $10.21) 🔴; +536% YoY
🔹 Oper Margin: 55.0%; +4,090 bps YoY
🔹 QoQ: Revenue +14% / Oper Profit +20%
🔸 First tech company to top ₩100T in quarterly operating profit
🔸 Revenue and operating profit were pre-announced Oct 8
Q4 Guide:
🔹 DRAM Bit Growth: +mid-to-high teens% QoQ
🔹 NAND Bit Growth: +mid-teens% QoQ
Q3 Pricing & Volume:
🔹 DRAM ASP: ~+20% QoQ; bits +low-to-mid single%
🔹 NAND ASP: +high-teens% QoQ; bits +mid-single%
Segments (Revenue / Oper Profit):
🔹 Chips: $110.1B / $79.7B; 72% margin
🔹 Memory Revenue: $105.3B; +427% YoY
🔹 Phones, TVs & Appliances: $39.0B / -$0.6B
🔹 Display: $6.0B / $0.8B
🔹 Harman: $3.2B / $0.4B
Cash & CapEx:
🔹 Net Cash: $147.9B
🔹 Q3 CapEx: $21.7B; +215% YoY
🔹 2026 CapEx: ~$63.2B; +60% YoY
Earnings Call Highlights:
🔹 Multi-Year Contracts: Signed with 10 major accounts; in talks with 10 more, several near the final phase
🔹 Target: 60-70% of mid- to long-term capacity under multi-year contracts
🔹 Memory: Tight supply expected to continue into 2028
🔹 HBM: 2027 supply already sold out; HBM4 sales up 3x+ QoQ, now 60% of HBM sales
🔹 2027: Positioned for another year of record results, driven by chips
Shareholder Returns:
🔹 Q3 Dividend: ₩4,601/share (~$3.44); ₩30T (~$22.5B) total
🔹 2026 Returns: ₩90-110T (~$67-82B); ₩35T done or planned; remaining ₩55-75T (~$41-56B) incl. a substantial buyback & cancellation
🔸 Final 2026 amount and next return policy at a late-January 2027 board meeting
Note:
🔸 Weaker USD/EUR cut operating profit by ~₩10T (~$7.5B) vs Q2
🔸 Net profit includes a ₩9.5T (~$7.1B) net finance loss, vs a ₩4.7T gain in Q2
FX used for USD conversion: $1 = ₩1,336 (mid-market; Oct 29, 2026)
Owner of the NYSE + $HYPE
quite the endorsements for Hyperliquid this morning 👀
trade[XYZ] and ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, are joining forces to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States.
In just over a year, our markets on Hyperliquid have surpassed $650 billion in volume. They provide continuous price discovery for stocks, indices, and commodities, and have become trusted reference points for retail and institutions alike when traditional markets are closed. Much of the world trades them. Until now, Americans could only watch.
We intend to change that. Subject to CFTC approval, trade[XYZ] and ICE plan to establish a new, dedicated U.S. market, with novel exchange and clearing infrastructure built on Hyperliquid. Planned contracts span equities, indices, commodities, FX, and crypto, with access through participating brokers and platforms. We’ll share more on products, eligibility, and timing as approvals progress.
ICE brings more than 25 years of experience operating regulated markets, clearing, and managing risk. trade[XYZ] brings the product development, market design, and technology behind the most liquid and robust markets on Hyperliquid.
Innovation and the protections of U.S. regulation shouldn’t be a trade-off. Together, we plan to prove it.
ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] and joins us in building towards the future of Hyperliquid. A small group of market luminaries is joining as well, beginning with Stan Druckenmiller. For more than four decades, few investors have anticipated the great turns in markets as often as Stan. We’re proud to have him with us for the next one.
We’re building the U.S. market in parallel with our existing HIP-3 markets, which we’ll continue to expand and innovate on. We expect both to flourish. They each have a long road map ahead, from new asset classes to new ways to trade them.
To the Hyperliquid community, whether you were here before us or came because of us, thank you. You took a chance on new markets and you made them matter. You’ll forever be a part of this story.
Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
Druckenmiller believes the $HYPE
ABF glut can coexist with a worsening high-end substrate shortage: TPCA checks show key equipment lead times stretching to 3–5 years.
Versus late-2025/early-2026, Toyota T-glass looms for ABF substrates moved from ~3 to 5 years, with delivery into 2031–32. Mitsubishi CO2 PCB lasers went from 12–14 months to 3 years; ORC/SCREEN substrate exposure tools from 12–14 months to 3–5 years.
Nikko ABF vacuum laminators jumped from 4–5 months to 2.5 years. Monthly ABF laminator capacity is ~18 units and may reach 28 by 4Q27E. Kinsus says ABF substrate capex must precede firm demand visibility by 18–24 months, gated by the slowest qualified input.
Current high-end ABF HVM is ~90x100mm at 8/8 or 9/12µm L/S; NPI targets 120x120–150mm at 5/7 or 5/5µm. Bigger substrate bodies and finer lines explain why aggregate ABF oversupply offers little comfort at the leading edge. Source: 27 Oct 2026 TPCA checks.
▶️ Remember what we have discussed this week, including in the quoted post about EPM vacuum laminators, production capacity = machinery + upstream material allocation supply... Not just nominal capacity which according to Kinsus:
"capex must precede firm demand visibility by 18-24 months and is gated by the slowest qualified input"
You can recall that Kinsus is currently operating at 85% due to insufficient T-glass allocation to operate at 100%. They have however already secured supply for 2027 and will be operating at 100% shortly.
h/t:xitter.gq/OptionKing666/status/2…
ABF Manufacturer CAPEX plans & Machinery
We have established that ABF substrate floor space is fundamentally non-fungible.
The cutting-edge ABF substrates required for top-tier chips (like NVIDIA’s Blackwell and upcoming Rubin platforms) feature large package sizes, 16–20+ layers, and line widths as narrow as 15 µm. Manufacturing these requires highly specialized, high-end vacuum lamination, high-aspect-ratio laser drilling, and advanced inline optical inspection tools. Lead times for this equipment are currently sitting at an extendedl 18 to 24 months.
Eternal Precision Mechanics 長廣 7795.TW is an equipment manufacturer which holds an effective monopoly at ≈ 95% global share in mid-high end vacuum laminators.
ABF has to be laminated onto the substrate with extremely tight specifications and tolerances. Each build up layer (16-20 presently) creates another lamination step or process so EPM benefits form the increasing size, complexity and layer count of cutting edge ABF architectures.
How Eternal reportedly allocates scarce equipment
According to Goldman Sachs priority goes to customers with:
- Larger scale.
- Longer-standing relationships.
- Secured ABF film supply.
Immediate positive implications for Ibiden and Unimicron.
→ What can we take-away from the CAPEX estimates in Chart 1 ?
(This does not indicate equipment spending alone or machinery allocations).
Kinsus 景碩 3189.TW - gradual increase
Unimicron 欣興 3037.TW - strong, sustained increase
Nan Ya PCB 南亞電 8046.TW - small increase
Ibiden イビデン 4062.JP - peaks in 2027
Semco 삼성전기 009150.KW - largest spending contributor
AT&S AT&S Austria Technologie ATS.VI - declines by 2028
Unimicron and Samsung keep increasing expenditure, while Ibiden and AT&S reduce spending in 2028.
Table 2 outlines spending vs confirmed equipment orders (that are publicly disclosed).
Nikko machinery refers to EPM's Japanese subsidiary so can be thought of as the same entity.
🚨 In addition to the NT 1.76B announced by unimicron to date, I've discovered that today, October 27, Unimicron authorized a further NT$50.9 billion of long-lead equipment procurement.
That is substantial evidence of advance procurement planning, but the announcement does not identify suppliers or delivery years, and execution remains adjustable.
Source:
m.moneydj.com/f1a.aspx?a=dd1…
Ok, so what about SEMCO, they are the largest contributor according to the image 1, how are they equipping their substrate expansion plans ?
I address this in my next post.
Mizuho on $MRVL & $LITE:
"Ahead of significant industry optical transition a ~38% premium could potentially imply upside to as much as $1,260+ given LITE's closing price of $913.95."
AI Drives Massive PCB Spec Upgrades! Material Shortages Expand as These Taiwan Manufacturers Seize Market Opportunities
The 2026 TPCA Show is themed "The AI High-Performance Revolution: From Computing Core to Intelligent Applications." Institutional investors point out that AI heterogeneous integration is driving a massive upgrade in PCB specifications. This trend is pushing High-Density Interconnect (HDI), high-layer count boards, and ABF substrates toward larger form factors, making the related material and equipment supply chains highly worthy of attention.
The shortage of upstream PCB materials is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, with expansion visibility now stretching to three or four years. Institutional investors estimate that the supply-demand gap for key materials could reach 20% by 2027. Analysts explain that as global demand for AI computing power experiences exponential growth, the cycle for doubling computing power has shortened from two years (between 2000 and 2010) to just seven months (between 2012 and 2023). Post-2024, this cycle has further shrunk to five months.
Furthermore, driven by the AI infrastructure race, demand for PCBs and ABF substrates has surged. The industry has faced tight supplies since 2025, and lead times for equipment have also significantly lengthened. Looking ahead to 2027, critical materials such as Copper Clad Laminates (CCL), copper foil, drilling pins, and fiberglass cloth could face a supply-demand deficit of roughly 20%.
Consequently, benefiting from the continuous upgrade of PCB specifications driven by AI heterogeneous integration, institutional investors are optimistic about:
Substrate Manufacturers: Unimicron 欣興 (3037), Nan Ya PCB 南電 (8046), Kinsus 景碩 (3189)
CCL Manufacturers: Elite Material 台光電 (2383), Taiwan Union Technology 台燿 (6274), ITEQ 聯茂 (6213)
PCB Manufacturers: Gold Circuit Electronics 金像電 (2368), Zhen Ding 臻鼎 (4958), Compeq 華通 (2313)
Copper Foil & Drill Pin Manufacturers: Co-Tech Copper Foil 金居 (8358), Topoint 尖點 (8021)
PTFE Supply Chain: Taiflex 台虹 (8039) and Flexium 台郡(6269) are also expected to benefit from this growing industry demand.
Source:
money.udn.com/money/story/56…
AI 推升 PCB 規格大升級！材料缺口擴大 這些台廠搶商機
2026年TPCA展以「AI高效能革命，從運算核心到智慧應用」為主題。法人指出，AI異質整合推升PCB規格升級，帶動高密度連結（HDI）、高多層板及ABF載板朝大尺寸化發展，相關材料與設備供應鏈值得關注。
PCB上游材料缺貨情況短期難解，擴產能見度已拉長至三至四年，法人預估2027年關鍵材料供需缺口恐達20%。法人分析，隨著全球AI算力需求呈跳躍式成長，算力倍增周期從2000年至2010年的兩年，縮短至2012年至2023年的七個月，2024年後更進一步縮短至五個月。
此外，在AI基礎建設競賽帶動下，PCB及ABF載板需求大增，產業自2025年起供應吃緊，設備交期也大幅拉長。展望2027年，銅箔基板（CCL）、銅箔、鑽針及玻纖布等關鍵材料恐面臨約20%的供需缺口。
因此，受惠AI異質整合帶動PCB規格持續升級，法人看好載板廠欣興（3037）、南電（8046）、景碩（3189）；CCL廠台光電（2383）、台燿（6274）、聯茂（6213）；PCB廠金像電（2368）、臻鼎（4958）、華通（2313），以及銅箔廠金居（8358）、鑽針廠尖點。此外，PTFE相關供應鏈台虹（8039）、台郡（6269）也可望受惠於產業需求成長。
For Nittobo 日東紡 3110.JP we should now model three separate demand/growth engines:
1) T-glass
→ low CTE/warpage/package substrates, increasingly including memory packaging 👀
2) NE/NER/NEZ
→ high speed, low loss PCB/networking
3) Next-gen Vlex/DX II
→ architecture extension beyond present product specs
Nittobo's Yuhiro Mikami Interview 📰
Nitto Boseki Co. 日東紡 3110.JP
Company Positioning
- Global leading supplier of high-performance semiconductor packaging substrates and high-end glass cloth for electronic equipment motherboards.
- Special glass (NE/T glass, etc.) holds overwhelming market share and industry standard status.
Current Market Conditions
- AI server demand remains robust, with excellent demand for T glass (low CTE, warp-resistant, used for GPU/CPU) and NE/NER glass (low dielectric/low loss, used for high-speed signals).
- Supply is severely tight; the company is working to improve yields to increase shipments.
Demand Structure
- CCL base materials for thin FCCSP and FCBGA are mainly from Japanese manufacturers.
- CSP for memory/modules is stronger from Korean manufacturers.
Investment Plans
- Continuing large-scale investments domestically and internationally, advancing according to schedule.
- Original yarn expansion: Centering on Taiwan to add melting furnaces; T glass yarn expected to contribute to mass production starting in fiscal 2027, aiming to ship as early as possible.
- Domestic plans to decommission E glass melting furnaces to expand special glass production capacity.
- Glass cloth expansion, with weaving processes in collaboration with Nan Ya Plastics.
- Due to upward demand revisions, investment amount revised upward to 120 billion yen by fiscal 2027 (an increase of 40 billion yen from original), targeting T glass capacity at 3 times that of fiscal 2025.
Competition and Differentiation
- Known competitors entering the T glass market, potentially leading to a slight drop in market share, but revenue scale continues to grow.
- Emphasizing over 30 years of proven track record in stably supplying high-quality T glass, upholding "Nittobo quality."
Future Demand Outlook
- Inference AI driving an increase in CPU volumes, with growth in dedicated ASICs/CPUs from service providers.
- Packaging substrates becoming larger in size and more multi-layered at the core, with core thickness potentially doubling to 2.4–3 mm.
- Special glass demand expected to remain strong in the short term; currently evaluating demand for 2029–2030 and the next wave of investment.
Next-Generation Products
- Recommending NER/NEZ (excellent low-Dk/Df), with partial mass production already underway.
- Next-next-generation "DX II" at quartz glass level, targeting sample shipments around fiscal 2028.
- Next-generation T glass "Vlex" under development (low CTE + low loss), expected to officially ship around 2028.
- Emphasizing the need to pair with new resins and collaborate on substrate design to deliver high value-added products.
🔽 🔽 🔽
The interview directly confirms several of our assumptions:
- T-glass and NE/NER demand remains extremely tight
- Nittobo is trying to increase output through capacity additions AND yield improvement.
- Taiwan glass yarn melting capacity is being expanded
- E-glass furnaces in Japan are being retired/reallocated toward specialty glass (scarcity cascades 👀)
- FY 2024-27 total CAPEX was raised by ¥40B to ≈120B
- T-glass capacity is targeted at roughly 3x FY25 levels by FY27
- Next gen VLEX T-glass is targeted around 2028
- next gen low loss products include NER/NEZ and later DX II
Key Takeaway:
Even though Nittobo is undertaking a ¥120B four year CAPEX program, demand has repeatedly been revised upwards faster than their expansion plans.
Another theme we are seeing throughout the passive component ecosystem- demand is increasing faster than supply, even with aggressive capacity expansion.
