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Prediction markets lean toward a mid-length shutdown. 10–29 days is trading near 50%, while the risk of a 30+ day disruption sits around 16%. Few believe this ends in under a week.
Hopefully this is resolved sooner rather than later!🙏
Lisa Cook’s Fed confirmation odds on Polymarket collapsed from ~26% to just 2% after the Supreme Court just ruled she will keep her seat pending oral arguments in January.
With no resolution before year-end, the December 31 market is effectively dead.
Alongside user growth, cumulative trading volume has exploded. Polymarket and Kalshi have reached nearly $30B combined, showing how much capital is flowing into real world event risk.
Even after the post election drop, prediction markets never returned to pre 2024 lows. A dedicated base of 50–100k weekly users stayed engaged, proving this isn’t just a one off election fad.