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Fox called Texas 49-49. The market paid up for Talarico anyway.
What moved, what didn't, and the $23,000 that landed three minutes later.
D+9.3 for the Senate and it's barely moved all fall. Meanwhile Kalshi is still only giving Dems around a 66% shot at control, almost identical to our PredictionPro model at 66.1%. Kinda shows how brutal the Senate map is. You can have a pretty massive national swing and still have control come down to a couple of races decided by a point or two.
Texas early voting is starting to look a little different after that initial Democratic surge. Day 3 is shifting back toward Republicans, although reporting is still incomplete. Kalshi had Talarico around 65%, so I'm curious how much of that price is built on the national environment vs actual Texas turnout. Still way too early to call this a reversal.
The market is moving toward our model 🎯
• MT-01: Our model 49.0% | Market 31.5% → 49.5%
• MO-02: Our model 37.5% | Market 22.5% → 40%
• Maine Senate: Our model 67.8% | Market 59.5% → 65.5%
One week. Three races. All moving our way.
Big money doesn't make election markets sharper... better polling does.
Polls vs. prediction markets, with @HarryDCrane.
Watch here 👉 youtube.com/watch?v=Rezco0fO…
GOP is gaining some ground in Georgia's early vote, but Ossoff is still sitting at 95% on Kalshi. At this point I think the more useful prediction market question is his margin, not whether he wins. Kalshi is pricing roughly a 50/50 shot at a 10+ point victory. That's a pretty big margin in a state Trump won in 2024.
Early Vote in-person is improving for the GOP in Georgia with the modeled partisanship margin shrinking 1.6% from yesterday. The current margin sits at D+13.8%. That moves to D+14.1% with mail returns included #gapol
Kalshi at 65% for a Dem Senate and our PredictionPro model at 66.1%. Basically identical on control, but the state margins are where it gets fun.
Texas, Maine, Ohio and Michigan are all sitting around D+2 in Kalshi's forecast. A pretty small polling miss in either direction could completely change the Senate math.
Kansas at D+33.8 compared to 2024 is pretty crazy. Iowa at D+17.9 too. And it's not just Democrats showing up more, Republican registration share is dropping across almost every state on this chart. Still doesn't tell us how these people are voting, but definitely makes the turnout picture look a lot different than 2024.
Kansas might actually be the most interesting race on the map right now.
On Point has it basically tied, and their early vote adjustment is pushing the Senate forecast above 53 Dem seats.
Our PredictionPro model is at 66.1% for Dem Senate control, so we're a little more cautious. Pretty crazy that we're even talking about Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Texas all being competitive at the same time
We ran today's ballots through our forecast, and KANSAS flips.
🔵Kansas - Hamilton +1.4, was Marshall +1.8
🔵Nebraska - Osborn +2.9
🔵Texas - Talarico +2.1
🔵Iowa - Turek +0.6
Senate: 52.9 to 53.2 Dem seats with the early vote
onpointpolitics.us
The economy at D+8 and cost of living at D+15 are probably the biggest numbers here. Those were supposed to be Republican strengths.
Even immigration is D+4 now. Hard to look at this alongside a D+11 generic ballot and argue it's just Democrats being more motivated to vote. There's a pretty significant shift in how voters view both parties.
Brown +6 and Acton +5 in a state Trump won by 11 points just two years ago. And it's not just one poll either, Marist has both Dems ahead too.
Polymarket still has Brown around 64%, so there's definitely some skepticism about whether these polling leads hold up on election day.
Minnesota being this close is kinda crazy considering the national environment. Our PredictionPro model has Dems up about 6.1 points nationally, yet Flanagan is only leading by 3.7 in Minnesota.
Really shows how much the fraud scandal and local issues are cutting against the national trend here.
Cook just moved this race from Likely D to Lean too.
Maine is interesting because Collins has historically been able to outperform Republicans by a pretty ridiculous margin.
Our PredictionPro model has Jackson at 66.9% vs 64.5% on Polymarket, so pretty close. Early vote looks good for Dems but the real question is whether Collins can still pull enough crossover voters in a political environment like this
Maine Early Vote Tracking 🦞
As of Oct. 21, 2026
Total early votes: 130,520 (+32,650)
18.8% of projected final turnout.
Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 Troy Jackson: 57.7% - 70.0%
🔴 Susan Collins: 30.0% - 42.3%
Early votes in Maine are very blue, so remaining votes in Maine will be much more Republican. We rate this race as Tilt D.
36% approval and a 24 point net negative with less than two weeks until the midterms is pretty wild.
Our PredictionPro model has Democrats at 66.1% to take the Senate, almost identical to Polymarket's 64.5%. Starting to wonder if even those numbers fully capture just how bad the national environment has gotten for Republicans.
Not sure I'd be drawing conclusions from early turnout yet. Dallas actually broke its 2018 first-day record, and our model has Texas as a much closer race than its usual partisan lean would suggest. Polymarket has Talarico at 64.5%. The bigger question is who's actually voting, not just which counties are turning out.
Brown up 5 in a state Trump won by 11 is pretty interesting. Polymarket already has him around 65%, so it's not exactly a surprise, but makes you wonder how much of Ohio's rightward shift was actually Trump-specific.
kinda wild how much Trump's coalition has flipped in just a year. Republicans thought they were building this new multiracial working class coalition and now white voters are the ones sticking around while everyone else moves away
