I’m on a mission to change the way you understand the news | 884% Return on Polymarket | Geopolitics | Economy | Your favorite whale is trading on my research
Joined December 2023
- Tweets8.4K
- Following713
- Followers2.2K
- Likes15.2K
Pinned Tweet
Only 3 days since I published the midterms forecast and the House already moved a lot. A batch of polls in districts that had none pushed Democrats to 91%. It’s a good thing I bought D House a long time ago and never sold.
The Senate slipped a bit to 64%, mostly on Nebraska, where OMEN is more bullish on Ricketts than the market.
And Brazil votes tomorrow. My model has Flávio Bolsonaro at 82%, slightly above the market (again).
Everything below 👇
I've taken a day off after this forecast, but tomorrow I'm back with a small update on the midterms and the Brazil presidential runoff.
It's here! After weeks of work, my midterms model is live. 506 races modeled, with commentary to the most contested ones across Senate, House and Governor elections.
It is the most ambitious project of mine to date—4.5k words and plenty more code lines, that hopefully made a good forecast!
It differs a bit from mainstream models, but has no overall party-lean. And it seems that at least a few important races are mispriced, most notably Alaska Senate race!
Look below for the full model deep dive 👇
It's here! After weeks of work, my midterms model is live. 506 races modeled, with commentary to the most contested ones across Senate, House and Governor elections.
It is the most ambitious project of mine to date—4.5k words and plenty more code lines, that hopefully made a good forecast!
It differs a bit from mainstream models, but has no overall party-lean. And it seems that at least a few important races are mispriced, most notably Alaska Senate race!
Look below for the full model deep dive 👇
New Global Outlook is out.
The midterms have gone quiet. The market has sat at 62–63% for a Democratic sweep for almost two weeks. My model is at 66%, so I think it’s still a bit cheap. Texas is where I disagree with the market. It has Talarico at 63%. I have him at 59%. Paxton is a bad candidate, but Texas is still a red state.
The Fed market calmed down after Warsh’s comments, and Brazil’s runoff is a lot closer than the 89% Flávio price suggested a few weeks ago.
Outside the US, Iran talks are stuck, and the Saudi–Houthi war is where the action is now. Israel votes next week with no bloc near a majority, and France just had its most violent weekend in years.
Full Global Outlook in the link below 👇
I'm more than halfway through the midterms forecast article, but I won't make it before Tuesday. There are just so many interesting races that it takes time to properly present and comment on them.
But I will have a little teaser of the model in my Global Outlook today. I'll show my model vs market on Balance of Power and Texas Senate race.
It's ready! This one has been quite a challenge compared to the Brazil model, but luckily I will be able to reuse most of it for the future US elections.
I'm starting the article on the forecast today. It will be a long one, where I go over the Senate, the House and governor races so don't expect it tomorrow.
I aim to finish it by the end of the week and then update it on a daily basis up until the election day.
I watched the Michigan debate and I'm not sure anything there justifies a drop in odds for El-Sayed.
Sure, he could have done a lot better, but it's not a performance that costs votes. Just compare it to 2024 Biden and remember that he would have performed on par with Kamala come November.
Now I need to train my For You to stop showing me Iran war slop and start showing me midterms slop
My midterms model is almost ready. There are still plenty of interesting plays to make. I was quite shocked to see a couple of races completely mispriced.
And then there's election night... in 2024 being quick then made all the difference.
Anyway, time to get out of the rabbit hole and post more to feel the vibes.
My midterms model is almost ready. There are still plenty of interesting plays to make. I was quite shocked to see a couple of races completely mispriced.
And then there's election night... in 2024 being quick then made all the difference.
Anyway, time to get out of the rabbit hole and post more to feel the vibes.
Mike S. retweeted
Update : nothing has changed.
For the last two weeks oil Twitter commented about noisy data. Some days the flow is higher, some day it is lower.
You can safely assume that anyone showing you flow numbers averaged over less that two weeks is cherry picking numbers to show you. Same for people excluding countries in the region for no good reason.
Just stick to the goddamn process. Same average, same countries. We're still currently 6 mbld below pre-war.
The right is winning almost everywhere. Brazil: Bolsonaro an 83% runoff favorite. Spain: PP+Vox favored for the November 29 snap election. Israel: Likud back to 54%. France: Le Pen up 6 points.
The US is the exception. A blue sweep is now at 67% and rising!
This week's Global Outlook is full of election news 👇
Turns out I wasn't bullish enough on Bolsonaro! Directionally, my model was significantly closer to reality than the market, but still below current prices.
The runoff is all but decided at this point, with traders giving Bolsonaro an 83% chance to be the next president of Brazil. Transfers heavily favor Bolsonaro, and with a 2-point lead in the first round, Lula has little chances to make it back.
I end the first round with 151% return and an appetite for more elections. Next up: US midterms.
My full thesis along with deeper explanations of the model's assumptions is on the long-form platform:
prophetnotes.com/p/my-positi…
