Commodity Portfolio Manager - Systematic mid-frequency futures & options - Switzerland - Options - Quantitative trading - Data driven

Genève
Joined February 2012
Commodity "Widow-Maker" Trades - A comprehensive field guide A "widow-maker" is a trade that looks attractive on paper (mean-reverting, carry-positive, statistically cheap, or seasonally obvious) but has a long, nasty left tail driven by structural asymmetries: storage/delivery mechanics, weather, political risk, illiquidity, or short-gamma dynamics. The common thread is bounded upside, unbounded downside, and a payoff profile dominated by rare but catastrophic events. Starting a little thread.
25
69
8
736
200,747
Ekections postponed and strikes advanced. Big if true
BREAKING: Netanyahu says Iran has now restarted its nuclear program and intends to destroy Israel within a short time. "Iran has restarted its nuclear program, and it wants to destroy us within a short time," Netanyahu said an hour ago. IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has warned that resuming the war this close to Tuesday's election will force the vote to be postponed indefinitely. Netanyahu said on Wednesday that toppling the Iranian regime is now his directive to the IDF and Mossad.
1
3
1
106
7,761
It rained ;) OAT Bund spread traders need to look at weather forecasts
looks like today's protests in France were mostly orderly with little looting and burning
2
1
28
2,973
AI is the fiercest imaginable bullshit job destroyer. Many white collar roles are going extinct and that is probably alright. Priviledged people will be affected the most and that might lead to cliques and nepotism to try to slow down the AI onslaught. The mass layoff starts probably in six months and ramp up from there. If you are in such a position, you've got little time left to make bank. Gonna be lit.
The problem isn’t that AI is intelligent. It isn’t. The problem is that too many adults (but not all) are at once mechanistic, imitative, unimaginative, stupid, formulaic, influenceable, & gullible, arrogant beyond their skill set, & too expensive to maintain.
11
4
1
197
13,696
Well, that escalated quickly ... Open-source models matching Claude's topline.
4
8
114
7,482
Netanyahu might get toppled by next Tuesday's election, and subsequently go to jail for corruption once he loses immunity. Attacking Iran now might give him a few % boost in the ballot that he desperately needs. Trump needs to survive the midterms. US warplanes in the Middle East have switched of their transponders. The IRGC won't go out without a bang, and may consider to preempt an offensive. Rien ne va plus ... faites vos jeux !
13
14
460
31,607
Yet another commodity guy retweeted
The Pentagon has spent months building a new agency to covertly disrupt and sabotage foreign technology programs seen as threats to U.S. military superiority, according to a dozen current and former U.S. national security officials who spoke to Politico. The Pentagon denies it with Deputy press secretary Jacob Bliss saying the claims are “simply not true.” The White House did not respond to Politico's request for comment. The Technology Support Office (TSO) was established in April, the officials say. Politico reports it is mentioned in previously unreported Department of War records, including a memo Deputy Secretary of War Steve Feinberg signed April 14 placing it under the Under Secretary of War for Intelligence and Security. Its goal is to “buy time or stop adversaries from developing technologies” that most threaten the U.S. military in a major conflict, one former official said. The sources describe building hacking tools and planning deception operations, such as tricking adversaries into installing faulty components in weapons. Politico reports TSO lacks legal authority to conduct clandestine operations itself and works with military and intelligence officers who do. It was built by merging two classified Pentagon intelligence programs that have run smaller tech sabotage efforts since 2023. Sources say Special Operations Command and Cyber Command objected, fearing budget cuts. While budget details are unclear, one former official estimated classified contracts alone are likely more than $1.5 billion. Source: politico.com/news/2026/10/22…
60
149
15
1,406
166,555
Yet another commodity guy retweeted
US has notified the Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi of a potential strike on Iran-Channel 8
20
160
8
1,962
123,458
Yet another commodity guy retweeted
Nokia and @iceye_global announced today a partnership with the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine to develop sovereign satellite communications. Through this Letter of Intent we will explore how trusted, sovereign satellite communications can strengthen Ukraine's resilience and give it control over the connectivity it depends on. Read more: nokia.ly/4BmEzim
159
668
102
4,392
176,330
Seems over now, back to sub 200 MW.
436 MW fire over Asaluyeh / Kangan gas field. Seems the Israelis are onto something.
1
48
5,677
Yet another commodity guy retweeted
BREAKING: Central banks around the world are quietly stockpiling four times as much gold as usual and are moving it out of the US, per FORTUNE
358
2,553
307
19,517
1,713,042
Now 524 MW
436 MW fire over Asaluyeh / Kangan gas field. Seems the Israelis are onto something.
2
4
2
90
12,188
436 MW fire over Asaluyeh / Kangan gas field. Seems the Israelis are onto something.
2
12
2
118
23,350
HFT bros gonna HFT. Indian commodity option turnover now bigger than the whole CME ;)
43
50
8
827
48,973
Invisible steamrollers abunds.
Replying to @izakaminska
The trick is to stop picking up the pennies *before* the steamroller arrives.
2
15
4,587
The US capital needs are entirely funded by Europe and China. As the US is becoming adversarial, those much needed capital flows will be stopped if not reversed.
European stocks have performed basically the exact same as US stocks since 2022, but for different reasons.
12
22
8
190
18,711
European stocks have performed basically the exact same as US stocks since 2022, but for different reasons.
8
7
2
127
16,380
Yet another commodity guy retweeted
Kushner also failed to disclose himself as an agent of a foreign government, having been paid nearly $2 billion in total by foreign leaders. trib.al/OTkGEv6
475
6,638
377
23,344
467,787
A very interesting article.
The GRU hacked into Jared Kushner's iPhone. Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) then recruited a GRU spy who gave them access to the hacked phone. What MIVD discovered was that Kushner had access to two bank accounts --one Azerbaijani, the other Israeli --where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati ruler Mohammed bin Zayed deposited money. It sounds like a slightly far-fetched episode of "Slow Horses," but it's real. And it proves just how eye-poppingly corrupt this administration was and continues to be as its "special envoy" decides the fate of tens of millions in Europe in the Middle East. Simply incredible reporting by Matthew Cole, drawn from his new book on Kushner. vanityfair.com/story/jared-k…
3
8
1
245
33,570