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Commodity "Widow-Maker" Trades - A comprehensive field guide
A "widow-maker" is a trade that looks attractive on paper (mean-reverting, carry-positive, statistically cheap, or seasonally obvious) but has a long, nasty left tail driven by structural asymmetries: storage/delivery mechanics, weather, political risk, illiquidity, or short-gamma dynamics. The common thread is bounded upside, unbounded downside, and a payoff profile dominated by rare but catastrophic events.
Starting a little thread.
Ekections postponed and strikes advanced.
Big if true
BREAKING: Netanyahu says Iran has now restarted its nuclear program and intends to destroy Israel within a short time.
"Iran has restarted its nuclear program, and it wants to destroy us within a short time," Netanyahu said an hour ago.
IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has warned that resuming the war this close to Tuesday's election will force the vote to be postponed indefinitely.
Netanyahu said on Wednesday that toppling the Iranian regime is now his directive to the IDF and Mossad.
AI is the fiercest imaginable bullshit job destroyer.
Many white collar roles are going extinct and that is probably alright.
Priviledged people will be affected the most and that might lead to cliques and nepotism to try to slow down the AI onslaught.
The mass layoff starts probably in six months and ramp up from there.
If you are in such a position, you've got little time left to make bank. Gonna be lit.
Netanyahu might get toppled by next Tuesday's election, and subsequently go to jail for corruption once he loses immunity. Attacking Iran now might give him a few % boost in the ballot that he desperately needs.
Trump needs to survive the midterms. US warplanes in the Middle East have switched of their transponders.
The IRGC won't go out without a bang, and may consider to preempt an offensive.
Rien ne va plus ... faites vos jeux !
Yet another commodity guy retweeted
The Pentagon has spent months building a new agency to covertly disrupt and sabotage foreign technology programs seen as threats to U.S. military superiority, according to a dozen current and former U.S. national security officials who spoke to Politico.
The Pentagon denies it with Deputy press secretary Jacob Bliss saying the claims are “simply not true.” The White House did not respond to Politico's request for comment.
The Technology Support Office (TSO) was established in April, the officials say. Politico reports it is mentioned in previously unreported Department of War records, including a memo Deputy Secretary of War Steve Feinberg signed April 14 placing it under the Under Secretary of War for Intelligence and Security. Its goal is to “buy time or stop adversaries from developing technologies” that most threaten the U.S. military in a major conflict, one former official said. The sources describe building hacking tools and planning deception operations, such as tricking adversaries into installing faulty components in weapons. Politico reports TSO lacks legal authority to conduct clandestine operations itself and works with military and intelligence officers who do.
It was built by merging two classified Pentagon intelligence programs that have run smaller tech sabotage efforts since 2023. Sources say Special Operations Command and Cyber Command objected, fearing budget cuts. While budget details are unclear, one former official estimated classified contracts alone are likely more than $1.5 billion.
Source: politico.com/news/2026/10/22…
Yet another commodity guy retweeted
US has notified the Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi of a potential strike on Iran-Channel 8
Nokia and @iceye_global announced today a partnership with the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine to develop sovereign satellite communications. Through this Letter of Intent we will explore how trusted, sovereign satellite communications can strengthen Ukraine's resilience and give it control over the connectivity it depends on.
Read more: nokia.ly/4BmEzim
Yet another commodity guy retweeted
BREAKING: Central banks around the world are quietly stockpiling four times as much gold as usual and are moving it out of the US, per FORTUNE
Invisible steamrollers abunds.
Replying to @izakaminska
The trick is to stop picking up the pennies *before* the steamroller arrives.
European stocks have performed basically the exact same as US stocks since 2022, but for different reasons.
Trump invokes Cold War-era Defense Production Act for oil production, refining reut.rs/4iyDcG2 reut.rs/4iyDcG2
Yet another commodity guy retweeted
Kushner also failed to disclose himself as an agent of a foreign government, having been paid nearly $2 billion in total by foreign leaders. trib.al/OTkGEv6
A very interesting article.
The GRU hacked into Jared Kushner's iPhone. Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) then recruited a GRU spy who gave them access to the hacked phone. What MIVD discovered was that Kushner had access to two bank accounts --one Azerbaijani, the other Israeli --where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati ruler Mohammed bin Zayed deposited money. It sounds like a slightly far-fetched episode of "Slow Horses," but it's real. And it proves just how eye-poppingly corrupt this administration was and continues to be as its "special envoy" decides the fate of tens of millions in Europe in the Middle East. Simply incredible reporting by Matthew Cole, drawn from his new book on Kushner. vanityfair.com/story/jared-k…
It started to snow in Chamonix. Can't resist.
youtu.be/R1NagZN2kjY?si=hKoP…




















